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The 2020 season looks to have marked the beginning of a new era for the Miami Dolphins, and the team has high hopes for 2021 as they look to post back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2003. As is par for the course in the football world, the ceiling of this team will be determined by the quarterback position.
After being the fifth overall pick and second quarterback selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua Tagovailoa had a disappointing rookie campaign. He did not seem comfortable pushing the ball downfield, which was reflected by his 6.3 yards per attempt (Y/A) and 9.8 yards per completion (Y/C) statistics, both below the league averages of 7.2 and 11.1, respectively. If the Dolphins wish to be a legitimate threat in the AFC East, Tagovailoa must be able to push the ball downfield with success in 2021.
The good news – and potentially bad news – is that Miami’s receiving corps excels in the deep passing game. Will Fuller V and DeVante Parker both have a long track records of beating opponents deep, and Jaylen Waddle possesses the ability to do so at the NFL level, even if he does play primarily out of the slot during his rookie season. Mike Gesicki should not be forgotten either, as he could enter the tier of elite tight ends this year. If Tagovailoa clicks with Miami’s skill position players and opens up the deep passing game, all while taking care of the football like he did in 2020, the Dolphins could have an elite offense. As mentioned earlier however, the flip side of this scenario also exists; if Tagovailoa’s deep passing skills don’t develop to NFL standards, we could be looking at a personnel mismatch that results in a disjointed offensive attack.
There are a few final notes that should be mentioned regarding Miami’s offense and passing game. First, a strong offensive line is needed to have a successful deep passing attack, and it remains unclear if the Dolphins’ line is up to the task. Second, play calling will impact Tagovailoa’s ability to throw deep (and could have also impacted it in 2020). Miami will be using two co-offensive coordinators this season. While the majority of praise or blame will fallon Tagovailoa, there are certainly other factors at play.
Brian Flores’ defense seems to have adopted the bend-don’t-break model often used by his former colleague Bill Belichick in New England; Miami ranked 20th in yards allowed per game, but sixth in points allowed per game during the 2020 season. The most pressing issue Miami faces on the defensive side of the ball was brought to light this past week when All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard requested a trade. If Miami were to trade him for anything butanother defensive star (i.e. Chandler Jones), they could see a drop off in performance from their defense in 2021.
The Dolphins are a young, exciting team led by an equally promising head coach in Flores, but they play in a rejuvenated AFC East that could give them trouble. It is unlikely they will win the division, but they are expected to engage in a competitive battle for second place in the division and a wild card spot.
Regular season record prediction: 10-7