Nathan Chen lost for the first time in over three seasons at Skate America in October. Since Skate America is a Grand Prix event, the third-place finish for Chen called into question his ability to make the Grand Prix Final.
Chen is the reigning champion of the Grand Prix Final and, if he made it back, it would be his biggest stop before Beijing. With a gold medal at Skate Canada, Chen’s chances of making it back to the Final look more promising, but there are still four more Grand Prix events.
It’s time to take a look forward at those competitions to determine Chen’s likelihood of going to the Final and trying to defend his title.
First, here is how the Grand Prix of Figure Skating works. There are six events and at each of those events, competitors are earning points. In each discipline, the gold medalist earns 15 points, the silver medalist earns 13 and the bronze earns 11.
Those who place below the top three can also earn points, but for the sake of keeping it simple, we won’t dive into that. Typically, to make the Final, a skater will have to land on the podium at both of their events. Chen earned a bronze and a gold medal at his Grand Prix events, so he has a total of 26 points.
So far, four other skaters have earned points. Vincent Zhou earned 15 at Skate America, and Shoma Uno earned 13. At Skate Canada, Jason Brown earned 13 points and Evgeni Semenenko earned 11. All point totals past that are purely predictions.
Gran Premio D’Italia
The next competition in the Grand Prix Series is Gran Premio D’Italia. The field for the men is not the strongest of the Grand Prix Series. The strongest competitor at this event is Yuma Kagiyama.
Kagiyama won the silver medal at the 2021 World Championships and was also the silver medalist at the World Junior Championships the year before. So, hypothetically, he wins Gran Premio D’Italia.
The silver and bronze medalists are murkier and the results will hinge on whether the skaters stick to their typical faults. Primarily, Jin Boyang is a question mark. Jin has the technical ability to score really well but is not a consistent skater.
He was fifth at the World Championships in 2019 but did not even place in the top 20 this past year. Jin could easily take the silver medal with a clean skate, but that is not always a given from him.
However, since he has a quad Lutz in his arsenal, the hardest jump performed by a skater in competition, he takes the silver. However, he is only slated to compete in one Grand Prix event, so he can’t make the Final.
For the bronze, it is Dmitri Aliev. The 2020 European Champion will be hitting the Grand Prix for the first time this season in Italy. His personal best scores are pretty comparable to those of Jin Boyang, but hypothetically, Jin is having a nearly clean skate at Gran Premio D’Italia, so Aliev falls right behind him.
Here are the point totals after Gran Premio D’Italia:
Nathan Chen 26
Vincent Zhou 15
Yuma Kagiyama 15
Jason Brown 13
Shoma Uno 13
Jin Boyang 13
Evgeni Semenenko 11
Dmitri Aliev 11
NHK Trophy
Here’s where things get interesting. News broke in early November that Yuzuru Hanyu pulled out of the NHK Trophy due to an ankle injury. This removes him from vying for a spot at the Grand Prix Final and helps Chen’s chances immensely.
So, with Hanyu out, the field at the NHK Trophy is down to 10. Once again, Vincent Zhou and Shoma Uno will be competing against each other. They are pretty clearly the gold and silver medalists here. With the season Vincent Zhou is having, it is safe to assume he will once again come out on top. Uno then gets the silver medal.
The bronze medal is up for grabs. Now it’s time to take into consideration that lower placements do get points. The winner of the bronze medal here will probably be either Cha Junhwan or Makar Ignatov.
Ignatov took fourth at Skate Canada, so hypothetically, he takes the bronze here. Cha took fourth at the competition. The fourth-place finisher receives nine points, meaning Ignatov had nine points coming into this competition and earns 11 more here.
Here are the totals after the NHK Trophy:
Vincent Zhou 30
Shoma Uno 26
Nathan Chen 26
Makar Ignatov 20
Yuma Kagiyama 15
Jason Brown 13
Evgeni Semenenko 11
Dmitri Aliev 11
Internationaux de France
This is the second to last competition on the Grand Prix Series, so competitors will start being weeded out of the race to make it to the Final. Yuma Kagiyama is back in this competition. Once again, he will be taking the gold. Jason Brown will take the silver.
There could be a fight for the bronze in this competition. Dmitri Aliev could face some pressure from the other men in the field if he does not have a clean skate. Fellow Russian Andrei Mozalev could beat out Aliev in this competition. Mozalev is the 2020 World Junior Champion. This is Mozalev’s only slated competition on the Grand Prix circuit, so he cannot make the Finals. So, after a close competition, Aliev takes bronze.
Here are the totals after the Internationaux de France:
Vincent Zhou 30
Yuma Kagiyama 30
Shoma Uno 26
Nathan Chen 26
Jason Brown 26
Dmitri Aliev 22
Makar Ignatov 20
Evgeni Semenenko 11
Rostelecom Cup
The Rostelecom Cup is the last event in the Grand Prix series before the Final. Yuzuru Hanyu is slated to compete at this competition, although it is unlikely that he will because of his injury. If Hanyu were to compete in this competition, it would be difficult to say how he would perform because of his injury. Looking at the field, Hanyu could still win easily if he competed and skated clean. So, he takes gold in this competition, but that is if he competes.
Silver will be a competition between two of the Russians. The likely competitors vying for this spot are Evgeni Semenenko, the Skate Canada bronze medalist, and Mikhail Kolyada, who took fifth at the 2021 World Championships. Kolyada’s score at Worlds was about 30 points higher than Semenenko’s at Skate Canada, so give Kolyada the silver. This is the only Grand Prix event Kolyada is slated for, so he cannot make the Final. Semenenko takes the bronze.
That makes the lineup for the Grand Prix Final:
Vincent Zhou
Yuma Kagiyama
Shoma Uno
Nathan Chen
Dmitri Aliev
Evgeni Semenenko
Based on these predictions, Chen has a clear and easy road to the Grand Prix Final thanks to his win at Skate Canada. However, there are so many other ways the points could fall. Chen is guaranteed his spot right now, but his outlook for the Grand Prix Final is much brighter now than two weeks ago after Skate America.