(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
The action at the U.S. National Figure Skating Championships has already kicked off. However, the senior-level skaters do not take the ice until Thursday, Jan. 6. The National Championships will be a good indicator of who will represent the U.S. at the Beijing Olympics next month, but the winners do not automatically qualify. There are three Olympic spots available in each discipline except pairs, which only has two. There is plenty to watch during this year’s Nationals and some competitions are tighter than others.
Men’s
Going into this season, the men’s competition in the U.S. looked really cut and dry. Nathan Chen would come in and easily secure his sixth consecutive national title. Then, Chen had a rough short program at Skate America and took a medal lower than gold for the first time in three seasons. It would still be unwise not to pick Chen as an easy favorite following his performance a week later at Skate Canada. While he finally lost a competition this season, he is still the leader in U.S. men’s figure skating and should have an easy time taking gold at this competition.
If there is one skater that could knock Chen down a spot, it is Vincent Zhou. Zhou had a strong start to the season with wins at the Cranberry Cup, Nebelhorn Trophy, and Skate America. He then took silver at the NHK Trophy and qualified for the Grand Prix Final, which was later canceled. Zhou is a very talented skater, but he is known for being inconsistent. His skating will be under scrutiny from the judging panel that Chen will not face. If Zhou lays down two clean skates, he could give Chen a run for his money. However, even with his usual underrotations, Zhou should be able to earn the silver medal and an Olympic spot.
The bronze medal will most likely go to Jason Brown, who has been a staple on the U.S. National podium the past couple of years. What Brown lacks in his technical skills, he makes up for in artistry. He will not be on the ice trying to perform the same jumps as Chen and Zhou, but his scores on the components side should be more than enough to earn him the bronze. There is a pretty large separation between him and the next skaters, simply due to Brown’s consistency. He has recently been trying to add a quad into his routine, but at this competition, it might be better to leave it out and rely on what works for him.
Women’s
The women’s singles competition is really anyone’s game. The reigning U.S. champion, Bradie Tennell had to withdraw from the event due to an ongoing foot injury that has kept her out of competition all season. With this in mind, Alysa Liu is a fairly clear frontrunner. Liu burst on the scene in 2019, winning the U.S. title at age 13. She won Nationals back-to-back before taking fourth last season. Liu has been pretty consistent this season and has the ability to do a triple-axle and a quad. She is also used to having pressure on her, after winning the senior Nationals the first time she competed. If she is able to stay consistent and land her big jumps, she will easily win the national title for the third time.
This is where the competition becomes a toss-up. Which woman wins the silver and bronze medals is going to come down to who can lay down the best skate when they need to. The skaters most likely vying for the second and third spot are Karen Chen, Mariah Bell, and Amber Glenn. All of these women have had mixed results and a large range in their scores so far this season. However, Chen has already made an Olympic team and is used to performing under pressure. She has already beat Bell in competition this season at the Internationaux de France. So, Chen has a fair shot at the silver medal.
Bell started off the season with a 179.42 at the Cranberry Cup, which is not a strong performance from her. She also found herself off the podium at Nationals last year, coming in fifth. However, at the last Grand Prix stop, the Rostelecom Cup, Bell put up a 210.35. This is a much more favorable score for her. If Bell repeats what she did at the Rostelecom Cup, it should be enough to earn her a bronze medal. However, if either Chen or Bell slips up, Glenn will be right on their heels.
Pair’s
The U.S. is not historically good at pair skating. The Americans have not earned an Olympic medal in pair skating since 1988. However, it could be a newer partnership that not only takes the gold at Nationals but gives the U.S. a chance at an Olympic medal. Alexa Knierim and Brandon Frazier first skated together competitively last season, after both ending long-time partnerships. They had a good amount of success for a new pairing last season, and the trend has continued into this season. Knierim and Frazier earned a silver medal at the Cranberry Cup and a bronze medal at the Internationaux de France. They are the favorites going into Nationals and should be able to come away with the gold if they do anything close to what they are capable of.
However, it could end up being a close competetion between the top three pairs teams. Jessica Calalang and Brian Johnson have already gone head-to-head with Knierim and Frazier a few times this season, coming in a place behind the reginging national champions at each of those competitions. Calalang and Johnson are the reigning silver medalists and having been putting up similar scores this season to Ashley Cain-Gribble and Timothy LeDuc, who took bronze last year. While Calalang and Johnson beat Cain-Gribble and LeDuc last season, the latter is more experienced. With there only being two Olympic spots for pairs, the top three teams are going to go all out. When going all out, Cain-Gribble and LeDuc are slightly more likely to take the silver medal, but Calalang and Johnson should be a very close bronze.
Ice Dance
It is going to be a close contest for the gold in ice dance between Madison Hubbell and Zachary Donohue, the reigning U.S. champions, and Madison Chock and Evan Bates. This is not a hot take. The two pairs have gone back and forward taking the gold and silver since Maia and Alex Shibutani retired after the PyeongChang Olympics. Each of those competitions has been decided by less than five points. When they faced off at Skate America earlier this season, they once again took the gold and silver with a little more than a point separating them.
At their second Grand Prix events, Hubbell and Donohue scored 207.90, while Chock and Bates scored 210.78. So, this is going to come down to the judging panel. It would be safe to pick Hubbell and Donohue for the gold, as they have won the last two head-to-head matchups with Chock and Bates. Chock and Bates should not be too upset with a second consecutive silver medal at Nationals because they will get another chance to beat Hubbell and Donohue at the Olympics.
The bronze medal will likely go to Kaitlin Hawayek and Jean-Luc Baker. The pair has quietly won the bronze medal at the past three Nationals, but represent the last pair before a dropoff in scores. Last season, they earned a score of 212.55, over 20 points ahead of Caroline Green and Michael Parsons, who earned fourth. It is very likely Hawayek and Baker will make it four bronze medals in a row and earn the last Olympic spot.