Now that Super Bowl LVI is in the books and the confetti has been cleaned off the turf at SoFI Stadium, us football fans look forward to a long offseason. While free agency and the draft are still a ways away, this year’s coaching carousel is already complete.
This year’s cycle was one of the most active in recent history, with nine teams making a change at head coach. Over a quarter of the league will have a first year coach next fall and time will tell which of these guys last long term with their new team. Some of these hires appear to be home runs that will bring long term success and stability to their respective franchise, while others were questionable at best. Coaches are given less time than ever to right the ship and these nine coaches will find that out very soon.
The biggest story during this year’s coaching cycle was a coach who didn’t land one of these vacancies despite being proven as an NFL head coach. That, of course, is Brian Flores, who has filed a lawsuit against the NFL and four teams for alleged racism in hiring practices. Flores was fired by the Dolphins despite back to back winning seasons while overcoming below average quarterback play and organizational dysfunction. The Dolphins, along with the Giants, Broncos and Texans are involved in Flores’s lawsuit. This has been an issue within the NFL for some time as minority coaches have not been a fair opportunity for head coaching jobs.
Give credit to Flores for not being afraid to stand up to the NFL and its billionaire owners; namely Dolphins owner Stephen Ross. Flores exposed a potential tank job in Miami when Ross allegedly bribed Flores $100k for every game he lost during the 2019 season. Ross reportedly also wanted Flores to violate the NFL’s tampering policy to land a quarterback, possibly Tom Brady, which Flores refused. This led to Ross inviting Flores to lunch on his yacht conveniently when said quarterback was also scheduled to visit Ross. Flores left once he saw through the not so subtle attempt at tampering from Ross.
The Dolphins quickly went from a team with tons of promise to a laughing stock because Stephen Ross chose GM Chris Grier, who wasted Miami’s draft capital and cap space on underperforming players, over a coach that got the most out of what he had to work with. Hopefully Brian Flores is a head coach in the NFL in the near future and my guess is he will make the Dolphins look completely incompetent if he gets another chance elsewhere and wins.
Hiring a head coach is not only one of the most important decisions for an organization, it is also one of the toughest. There’s a reason nine teams had openings; more often than not coaches don’t work out for more than five years. Of the nine coaches hired, history shows that only one or two of them will have sustained success. It’s kind of sad how low the hit rate is on NFL coaches, but there’s a reason why top caliber candidates are rarely available, all the best coaches already have jobs.
Trying to predict which coaches will work is difficult as there are several factors that go into being a winning head coach but that won’t stop me from ranking all the new hires this year.
NFL Head Coaching Hires Ranked
Brian Daboll, New York Giants- The Giants haven’t done many things well over the past decade, but this hire was a home run. While I would have preferred Flores, this hire is by no means a let down. Daboll is one of the best offensive coordinators in football and did an excellent job developing Josh Allen into a top tier quarterback. Daboll has worked under Nick Saban and Bill Belichick and is the right guy to develop a franchise quarterback whether that is Daniel Jones or someone else. If the Giants are patient, and that’s a big if, Daboll will be able to return this franchise to relevance.
2. Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings- Another one of Sean McVay’s disciples has gotten a head coaching job, continuing the trend of young offensive coaches taking over the NFL. O’Connell has done great work as the Rams offensive coordinator over the last two seasons, that included a Super Bowl win over another former McVay assistant, Zac Taylor. These young offensive coaches keep working and turning around their respective franchises and O’Connell shouldn’t be any different. He is a former quarterback and one of the brightest offensive minds in the game. Minnesota has their quarterback and great weapons; they just need the coach that can get the most out of them.
3. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars- After the Urban Meyer debacle owner Shad Khan needed to get a grown up in the building, and he got that in Pederson. Pederson is an experienced head coach who won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles along with making the playoffs three times in his five seasons with the Eagles. Pederson isn’t as innovative offensively as the two coaches ahead of him, but this is a great hire nonetheless. Trevor Lawrence had a bumpy rookie campaign and getting a former NFL quarterback as his head coach should help. Pederson is a good head coach despite a rough ending in Philly and he should bounce back in Duval.
4. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders- After being a head coaching candidate for what feels like an eternity, Josh McDaniels finally got a second chance with the Raiders. This is a solid hire for a team that is fresh off a playoff appearance and has the pieces to be a threat in the AFC. I was always skeptical of McDaniels’s success with Tom Brady, I mean it’s not hard to have good offenses when you literally have the greatest quarterback to ever live. However McDaniels did an excellent job with a rookie Mac Jones and his offense is a great fit with Derek Carr’s playing style. McDaniels did go 11-17 in his first head coaching stint in Denver so there is some skepticism. However, this is a much better situation and I expect McDaniels second go around as a head coach to go much better.
5. Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos- I am evaluating these hires off the coaches themselves. However, if Hackett is able to bring a certain quarterback from Green Bay out to the Mile High City, this hire would jump to the top of the list. Hackett is a longtime offensive coordinator and the Broncos have been lifeless offensively since Peyton Manning retired. While Hackett was not a bad hire, his track record as an offensive coordinator before Green Bay isn’t exactly inspiring. Hackett had just one scoring offense rank in the top half of the NFL in his five years as a coordinator in Buffalo and Jacksonville. While the Packers offense has thrived, how much of that is Hackett and how much is Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. If Hackett is able to lure Rodgers to the Broncos this hire was an amazing one. However, until that happens it’s a respectable but not franchise changing move.
6. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears- In case you were wondering, defensive coaches still exist and the Bears got one of the better ones to replace Matt Nagy. Eberflus has flown under the radar for the work he has done with the Colts defense, which has consistently been playing like a top ten unit. Eberflus is a solid and experienced coach, though I question the decision to go for a defensive coach when the Bears priority should be the development of Justin Fields. If Chicago wants to be a viable playoff contender, they need Fields to develop into the franchise quarterback this team hasn’t had since Sid Luckman. This isn’t a bad hire by any means, but an offensive coach makes more sense for the Bears.
7. Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins- McDaniel was the hardest coach for me to rank on this list, and he could have easily ended up a few spots higher. On one hand, McDaniel is a smart young offensive coach who worked under Kyle Shanahan. On the other hand, McDaniel has only been an offensive coordinator for one season and Shanahan still called the plays. This is a boom or bust hire, as McDaniel could be the next Sean McVay but his lack of experience has him lower on this list. McDaniel seems to be a likable coach and has potential to be a star however he will have to overcome Miami’s dysfunction.
8. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints- Sean Payton stepped away from coaching after 15 excellent years in The Big Easy that involved the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl. Payton’s replacement is in house, as longtime defensive coordinator Dennis Allen got promoted to head coach. Allen inherits a team with the worst cap situation in the NFL and uncertainty at quarterback. Allen’s first tenure as a head coach resulted in an 8-28 record with the Raiders. While Allen is a good coordinator, there is no evidence that he can work as a head coach. Allen has the pressure of replacing a legend and appears to be better suited as a coordinator than head coach. I generally don’t like in-house hires and the Saints could have done better with Payton’s replacement.
9. Lovie Smith, Houston Texans- Lovie Smith has the most head coaching experience of anyone on this list by far, though I don’t understand this hire. Smith was a good coach for the Bears and got to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman, but that was 15 years ago. Smith is an old defensive coach in a league that is moving in the direction of offense. Smith hasn’t been an NFL Head Coach since 2015 and that was a failed stint with the Bucs. It also doesn’t help that the Texans are as bad of an organization as the league has to offer and they just fired David Culley after one season. Smith was a solid coach over a decade ago but the NFL has changed and this hire doesn’t make much sense in 2022.