With no team locked in for an at-large berth in the Mid-American Conference, “MAC Madness” will have everything on the line when the first games begin Thursday, March 9 in Cleveland, Ohio at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. With the top three teams sporting at least 20 wins on the season, things should get very interesting in the fight to grab a NCAA Tournament bid. Only the top eight teams qualified for a spot in the Tournament, as Bowling Green, Central, Eastern, and Western Michigan failed to qualify. So let’s break down the favorites, other contenders, dark horse teams, and my pick for MAC Madness!
Favorites:
Toledo Rockets (26-6, 16-2 MAC)
The Rockets will enter the MAC Tourney as the No. 1 overall seed, but they aren’t actually the favorite to win according to Vegas, which will likely put a little chip on their shoulder. Tod Kowalczyk has been the Rockets head coach since 2010, and he coached some very competitive teams over the years. The Rockets have now won the regular season conference trophy three years in a row, but have yet to win the conference tournament and haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1980. This was Kowalczyk’s best team to date in terms of regular season and conference victories, however, as the Rockets went 16-2 in conference play and 25-6 overall this season. The Rockets play exceptionally fast, and they were a top three offense in the nation this year, scoring 85.7 points per game. They finished the season blistering hot, coming into the tournament on a 15-game win streak. Toledo shot 49.6% overall this season and 40.5% from downtown, scoring triple-digits four times. They are led in scoring by Junior RayJ Dennis, who managed 19.4 points per game, 4.4 rebounds, and led the conference with 5.9 assists. He had a pretty decent supporting cast this season, as seniors J.T. Shumate (16.5 PPG and 4.9 REB) and Setric Millner Jr. (15.9 PPG, led the team with 5.9 REB, 1.8 AST) and sophomore Dante Maddox Jr. (11.5 PPG, 4 REB) all had great seasons and are offensive threats that will likely give any team they face fits. They will face Miami of Ohio in their first game, and assuming they take care of business in that game will face either Ohio or Ball State. Their only two conference losses were to Kent State and Ball State, and they will have a great chance if their offense shows up to finally capture a Conference Tourney trophy and get a shot to play in the big dance.
Kent State Golden Flashes (25-6, 15-3 MAC)
Kent State is the favorite to win this tournament according to Vegas, and it’s not necessarily hard to see why. The Golden Flashes were the most complete team in the conference this year, with a solid offense and an elite defense by conference standards. They allowed 65.4 PPG, the best in the conference, and scored an average of 76 PPG. They enter the tournament also at 25-6 overall, but they suffered one more loss in the conference, with their three losses coming to Akron, Ball State and Northern Illinois. They will be looking for their first MAC Tournament victory since the 2016-2017 season, and have all the pieces to do so. They are led in scoring by senior Sincere Carry with 17.4 PPG, and is third in the conference in APG with 4.9. With a very effective offense and the best defense out of any team in the bracket, a defense which ranks 18th overall in defensive efficiency, the Golden Flashes have a great chance to get back to the big dance for the first time since 2007-2008. They face Northern Illinois in their first round matchup.
Akron Zips (21-10, 13-5 MAC)
The Zips enter the tournament as the third seed, and while they may not have the best depth in this tournament or fastest style of play, they have the best overall player in the conference and a top 15 player in the nation in senior Xavier Castaneda. He led the conference in scoring, averaging 21.4 PPG, and scored a season high 34 points at Ohio on February 10th, one of 6 occasions where he scored 30+. Akron will face Buffalo in the first round, and Castaneda scored 30 points in a 20 point win. Akron plays with a slower pace and shoots a ton of 3s, finishing the season 35% from downtown. Junior Enrique Freeman averaged 1.5 PPG and was fourth in the entire NCAA in RPG with 11.1. The Zips margin for error will be slim, but they could be a team that goes on a run as they look to repeat as MAC Tournament champions and return to the NCAA Tournament.
Another Contender:
Ball State Cardinals (20-11, 11-7 MAC)
Ball State comes in as a No. 4 seed, and while they had some big wins this season, they also struggled with consistency. They were able to pull off wins over Toledo, Akron, and Kent State, but also lost to Western and Eastern Michigan, and ended the year overall on a three-game losing streak. They also struggled a little defensively, allowing 71 PPG. Scoring-wise, they are led by junior Jarron Coleman (14.5 PPG, 5 RPG), and sophomores Jaylin Sellers (13.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG) Payton Sparks (13.7 PPG, leads the team with 8.7 RPG), and senior Demarius Jacobs (12.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.5 APG) are also key contributors. They will be facing Ohio in the first round, and could have the depth to make a run although their road in the bracket will be an uphill climb.
Dark Horse:
Ohio Bobcats (18-13, 10-8 MAC)
The Bobcats go into their first round matchup against Ball State as small favorites, but the real reason they are dark horses for me here is their offense. They ranked second in offensive efficiency behind Toledo and shot 46% from the field overall. They are led by senior Dwight Wilson lll (15.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.3 APG), and will likely face a track meet in the second round matching up with Toledo. The Bobcats fell in that first meeting 90-75, but they will be able to play at their own pace and can easily make some noise as long as their defense can show up to compliment the offense.
The Rest:
Buffalo Bulls (15-16, 9-9 MAC)
The Bulls struggled defensively all year long, giving up an average of 76.9 PPG, and were decent overall on the other side of the ball. While they may have a chance against a slower-paced Akron team in the first round, they lost to the Zips by 17 and 20 points in their two meetings this season. They are led in scoring by sophomore Curtis Jones (15.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 3 APG), but in a league of so many high-powered offenses, it seems unlikely they will go far even if they are able to get out of their first round matchup.
Northern Illinois Huskies (13-18, 9-9 MAC)
While the Huskies had an impressive win over Kent State this year, they were overall very inconsistent this year and will have to beat Kent State again in the first round to move on. It’s super hard to beat the same team twice in the same season, and even tougher to do it when the stakes are raised. They also come in losers of four of their last six games, and will likely struggle against a focused Kent State defense.
Miami (OH) Redhawks (12-20, 6-12 MAC)
There’s not much to write here about Miami (OH), as they struggled in conference play all year long and allowed 74 PPG this season. Against one of the top offenses in the conference in Toledo, it seems unlikely they will be able to hang around much. While they only lost by three to the Rockets in their first meeting, they lost by 18 in their second meeting.
My Pick:
Kent State. The Golden Flashes are the most balanced and well-rounded team in the bracket, and their defense will make the difference in a league with so many explosive offenses. I feel they would be able to take care of either Buffalo or Akron in the second round, and won their only meeting against Toledo this season, holding them to only 63 points, their lowest point total of the whole year. Kent State presents problems for the Rockets, and I will bet on the moneyline favorite to take the conference tourney crown.