Now that the dust has mostly settled in free agency, everyone’s attention has shifted to the draft next month in Kansas City. Draft season is my favorite time of the entire offseason where fans and pundits alike attempt to evaluate and rank the best college football players in America.
No position gets talked about more during draft time than quarterback, yet it is the hardest position to project from college to pro. There are several reasons why this is the case, quarterback after all is the most developmental position in football and it is impossible to know exactly how each college signal caller will translate to the next level.
Some guys can come in and be effective almost immediately while others need a few years before they fully realize their potential. This year’s bunch is one of the best we have had in recent memory as there are four signal callers projected to go in the top ten. Just for reference, four quarterbacks have only gone in the top ten picks once since 1950.
That was back in 2018 when Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen all heard their names’ called within the first ten selections. Of those four, only Allen played up to his draft status and it’s rare that all the top QB selections in a given year pan out.
While I like all of the big four QB prospects, I understand there is a high probability that only two or three of them hit. A young quarterback’s success (or lack thereof) depends largely on where they land.
Going to a franchise that can support you with proper coaching and personnel can be the difference of being a bust or being the next guy to sign a contract north of $40 million per year.
There are five quarterbacks in this cycle that I believe have the ability to elevate a franchise and potentially change the landscape of the NFL.
So I (who has no experience as a GM or scout) decided to rank the top five quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
1. Bryce Young, Alabama
The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner comes in as my top quarterback prospect after two incredible seasons in Tuscaloosa. Young is the most complete quarterback in this class and can make an immediate impact wherever he lands.
When talking about the Crimson Tide QB, we have to address the elephant in the room (no pun intended). That of course is his size as Young is on the much smaller end of quarterbacks. While his size is a valid concern, it isn’t anything that should warrant a team passing up on the Bama product.
Many of Young’s critics will point to his lack of size and cite concerns of potential injury, even though no one can predict injuries regardless of a player’s size. It is worth noting that Russell WIlson has had a successful NFL career with minimal injuries despite his size and Young plays very similar to the former third round pick.
Young tops this list because of his elite accuracy from both inside and outside the pocket. Young is elusive and consistently made plays off script during his time with the Crimson Tide.
Bryce Young throws one of the best deep balls I have ever seen from a college quarterback and regularly bailed Alabama out of trouble. Young didn’t have the dominant supporting casts his predecessors did, meaning he had to carry the Tide to several wins over the past couple of seasons.
Young has the highest floor in this class, but he doesn’t sacrifice physical upside like some other high floor guys do. While his arm isn’t elite, Young is capable of making NFL throws into tight windows and can extend plays with his legs.
While Young’s size keeps him from being a generational prospect like Trevor Lawrence, he is still the best option for a quarterback needy team in this draft.
2. Anthony Richardson, Florida
I’m rolling the dice with this ranking as Richardson has the physical traits to be a superstar, but is as raw as any top QB prospect within the past few years. Anthony Richardson is a physical anomaly for the position, boasting a rocket arm along with out of this world athleticism.
Richardson put on a clinic earlier this month at the combine which should come as a surprise to no one that watched him in Gainesville. The hometown kid showed off his elite mobility in college, regularly making defenders miss with either his elusiveness or downright running over them.
The ability to extend plays with your legs is more important for QBs than ever and Richardson is the best in this draft at doing such.
I should also mention that Richardson will have one of the strongest arms in the NFL and can make any throw on the field. While Richardson has the ability to make any throw you need, he hasn’t shown the ability to do so consistently.
There’s a reason Richardson is expected to be the third or fourth quarterback selected, he is going to need a lot of development to live up to his historic potential.
Accuracy is an area of weakness for Richardson who completed less than 54% of his passes in 2022. As is the case with many young QBs with strong arms, Richardson relies purely on the strength of his right arm and doesn’t throw with touch as much as he should.
Richardson needs to level his throws to be on target more consistently and avoid constant overthrows. He is also the least experienced of the likely first round QBs and is more a project than prospect.
His lack of experience shows on film as Richardson made several poor reads that lead to interceptions. That is an issue that is fixable with more reps but whoever takes Richardson is going to need patience.
With the abundance of uncertainties and concerns you might be wondering why I have Richardson ranked as high as I do? Recent history has shown us that taking a chance on a high risk high reward quarterback pays off.
When you look at the elite quarterbacks in today’s game, nearly all of them have elite physical tools that just needed development. If I’m an NFL GM, I’m betting on my coaching staff and front office to support Richardson and help him grow as a passer.
Richardson’s mobility will help him escape trouble as he is adapting to the NFL. If Richardson can just sit for a year behind an established veteran, he could be an All-Pro caliber player by the end of his rookie contract.
3. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
The consensus betting favorite to go first overall, C.J. Stroud comes in at number three in my rankings. Like Bryce Young, Stroud came in with big shoes to fill and went on to have two very productive seasons at a premier program.
Stroud is a refined product and is a day one starter on Sunday. Sound mechanically, Stroud throws a beautiful ball and is a joy to watch on film.
Stroud possesses elite accuracy ranging from checkdowns to deep shots downfield. What stands out to me is Stroud’s ability to throw with anticipation and his ability to regularly hit passes into tight windows between the numbers.
While he certainly benefited from the factory known as Ohio State’s WR room, Stroud still made difficult throws that are necessary to be a franchise guy.
Stroud plays aggressive but has the accuracy to get away with it most of the time. While I view Stroud as a bonafide franchise quarterback, there are areas of concern.
The main concern with Stroud is his ability to make plays under pressure. While he is as good as anyone with a clean pocket throwing to his first read, Stroud’s play takes a noticeable dip when he’s in a muddy pocket.
While Stroud is by no means a statue, he is limited when it comes to extending plays. Stroud showed flashes of athleticism (namely the Georgia game) however they were far and few between.
The top two guys on my list regularly made plays off script and showed they could overcome less than stellar surrounding talent. That remains to be seen with Stroud who had some of the best offensive personnel college football had to offer in Columbus.
Stroud’s game should translate well to the NFL so long as he gets a decent offensive line. If the rumors are true and Carolina selects him with the first pick, the former Buckeye will be set up for NFL success for many years to come.
4. Will Levis, Kentucky
Perhaps the most polarizing player in this year’s class, Will Levis is either the next Dan Marino or an overhyped bust depending on who you talk to. As is usually the case, reality lies somewhere in the middle.
Levis is a first round caliber quarterback and is much better than many skeptics give him credit for. With that being said, those same skeptics have valid reason to not fully buy into the Penn State transfer.
Let’s start with the positives, Levis has the measurables NFL scouts are looking for at the position, standing at 6 ‘4 and 230 pounds.
The main argument for Levis being a top five pick is his right arm, which is the envy of QBs across America.
Like Anthony Richardson, Levis has incredible arm talent and can make difficult throws look mundane. Unlike his SEC East counterpart, Levis can level his throws and put touch on passes when necessary.
Despite the fact that Levis is more developed than Richardson, he lacks the elite mobility that will keep Richardson out of trouble as he is learning the position.
Levis is a solid athlete and can use his frame to power through defenders, however his mobility isn’t good enough to build an offense around.
The main counterpoint Levis critics will point to are his struggles with turnovers. Levis threw 23 interceptions in two seasons as a starter at Kentucky and often tried to force throws into windows that just weren’t there.
This is a trend amongst young quarterbacks with strong arms, they often trust their arm too much which leads to needlessly risky decisions which wind up as picks.
There are also concerns regarding Levis’s accuracy as it was very hit and miss in college. His accuracy isn’t necessarily bad but it was inconsistent in college. Levis will be a very streaky player until he further develops.
Going through progressions is another area of improvement for Levis as his lack of decisiveness led to a lot of sacks.
It is worth mentioning that Levis had lackluster support at Kentucky, namely his receiving core and offensive line. Levis is better than his statline and I am excited to see what he can do with NFL talent around him.
NFL teams are taking a similar risk with Levis that they are with Richardson, the difference is that Richardson’s legs can buy him time as he learns to read defenses.
There will be growing pains with Levis, however his potential down the road validates a first round selection.
5. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
While he isn’t a consensus first rounder, I wanted to include Hendon Hooker in my ranking. The ultimate wild card in this draft, Hooker could go as high as the first round or he could slip all the way to the third.
Hendon Hooker checks many of the boxes you look for in a franchise quarterback, however there are several red flags that keep him from being any higher on this list.
After transferring from Virginia Tech, Hooker thrived in two seasons under Josh Heupel and was one of the most efficient signal callers in the nation.
Hooker was on pace to be a Heisman finalist before suffering a torn ACL in a late season loss to South Carolina. Although he hasn’t been able to work out for teams due to the injury, Hooker has still impressed higher ups in the league.
We always talk about intangibles when it comes to quarterbacks and Hendon Hooker has them all. Hooker has the leadership traits you want for a guy that’s supposed to be the de facto leader of the locker room.
Hooker has also impressed in interviews with teams at the Senior Bowl and Combine and I believe that the people making decisions on draft night are higher on Hooker than the public is.
There’s plenty of reason to buy in, Hooker throws with incredible velocity and showed exceptional mobility before his torn ACL.
A lot of college quarterbacks are just products of QB-friendly spread offenses but I don’t think that’s the case with Hooker. While Josh Heupel’s offense certainly helped Hooker, the talent is undeniable.
Despite his physical upside, there are a few catches with Hooker. As I mentioned earlier, he suffered a torn ACL in late November so he may have to redshirt his rookie year.
Hendon Hooker’s age also may cause GMs to be wary, Hooker is 25 which is definitely on the older end of rookie quarterbacks.
While I don’t doubt Hooker’s ability to make difficult throws, he wasn’t asked to very often at Tennessee. Whenever Hooker is able to return to the field, there is going to be a transition period from Heupel’s hyper spread offense to a more pro style system.
While I wouldn’t spend a high first rounder on Hooker, he could be a valuable addition to a team with a stable starter in place that is looking to upgrade long term.
If he is still on the board come day two, there wouldn’t be much pressure to play once healthy. While there are too many red flags for Hooker to be a top ten pick, his physical upside and intangibles could make him the steal of the draft.