The final month of the regular season is upon us, with these next few weeks being the money games for playoff contenders. Teams figure out how long the season really is once they get to November. Every year there are teams that we think are College Football Playoff viable, however falter down the stretch.
As it stands now, 14 teams are left standing with a shot at the CFP. These next five weeks will trim that number down until we (hopefully) have a clear top four that will go on to play for a national title. The initial CFP rankings dropped earlier this week, giving us our first glimpse into where the frontrunners stand entering Week 10.
The biggest storyline from Tuesday night’s rankings is the committee’s number one team, Ohio State. The Buckeyes getting the top spot shows the committee prioritizes resume above all else.
I have no issue with Ohio State being ranked number one as it boasts wins against Notre Dame and Penn State. While their games haven’t always been the prettiest, the Bucks’ shifted their identity to a defensive team that can win slugfests on a weekly basis.
The two-time defending champs were slotted in the number two spot in the inaugural rankings. Georgia has been a polarizing team this year, everyone knows what it’s capable of at its best. However, the Bulldogs’ schedule to this point has been lackluster and they have looked underwhelming at points this season.
My takeaway on the Dawgs’ is that we will find out everything we need to know about them in the coming weeks. Georgia closes out conference play with three ranked matchups against Mizzou, Ole Miss, and finally a trip to Neyland against Tennessee.
Another contender that hasn’t been particularly challenged yet is Michigan. The Wolverines have made light work of their walk in the park schedule to this point. Some are still skeptical due to their soft schedule.
Well they’ll have the chance to silence any doubters with dates scheduled against Penn State and Ohio State in the near future.
One of my biggest takeaways from Tuesday’s rankings was Penn State being left out of the top ten. To me, this shows the committee isn’t giving the Nittany Lions the benefit of the doubt due to their weak schedule aside from Ohio State whomst they lost to.
If Penn State wants to make the playoff, it will have to win out and hope it gets the chance to play in the Big Ten Championship.
The SEC Championship race takes front and center stage this Saturday with a double header that will likely determine who advances on to Atlanta. Georgia looks to win its sixth division title in the past seven seasons, but must first take care of an ascending Missouri team looking for its first SEC East title since 2014.
While neither team can mathematically clinch this week, the winner will control its destiny to the conference title game.
Alabama can wrap up the West this Saturday if it beats LSU and has Ole Miss lose to Texas A&M. Nick Saban hasn’t lost to the same starting QB two years in a row since he lost to Drew Brees and Purdue in 1998-99.
Jayden Daniels looks to buck that trend and give the Tigers a chance to be the first two-loss team to make the CFP.
Basically there’s three paths the SEC can go down this weekend. The first path involves Georgia and Alabama taking care of business which gives us what we expect. While this path is definitely the more mundane one, it should safely secure a playoff spot for an SEC team.
The other routes involve LSU or Mizzou, or perhaps both being able to go on the road and pull off the upset. If both Tigers’ actually won this week it would open up a can of worms in the SEC.
Alabama would be all but eliminated from playoff contention and the conferences’ safest play in Georgia would have to win out to have a shot. While this would certainly be entertaining, it opens up a very real risk of the SEC missing out on the CFP entirely.
This would have been thought to be impossible, however if the conference has to rely on a two-loss LSU or a Mizzou team that still has Tennessee on its schedule, things could get dicey.
I fully expect the SEC to make the playoff as it has every year since its inception.
As for my other thoughts on the initial playoff rankings, USC is the most overrated team at 20. The Trojans got embarrassed by Notre Dame and gave up 34 points to a Utah team without its quarterback. They have also had several near misses against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Arizona State.
Air Force was the most underrated team barely cracking the top 25. The Falcons are one of eight remaining undefeated teams in the nation and beat a Wyoming team that pushed Texas for three quarters.
Chris’ College Football Top 25 Rankings:
1.Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) W vs Florida 43-20, last week-1
2.Michigan Wolverines (8-0) BYE, last week-2
3.Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) W vs Wisconsin 24-10, last week-3
4.Florida State Seminoles (8-0) W vs Wake Forest 41-16, last week-4
5.Washington Huskies (8-0) W vs Stanford 42-33, last week-5
6.Texas Longhorns (7-1) W vs BYU 35-6, last week-7
7.Oregon Ducks (7-1) W vs Utah 35-6, last week-9
8.Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) BYE, last week-8
9.Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) L vs Kansas 38-33, last week-6
10.Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) W vs Indiana 33-24, last week-10
11.Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) W vs Pittsburgh 58-7, last week-12
12.Ole Miss Rebels (7-1) W vs Vanderbilt 33-7, last week-13
13.LSU Tigers (6-2) BYE, last week-15
14.Missouri Tigers (7-1) BYE, last week-16
15.Louisville Cardinals (7-1) W vs Duke 23-0, last week-17
16.Oregon State Beavers (6-2) L vs Arizona 27-24, last week-11
17.Air Force Falcons (8-0) W vs Colorado State 30-13, last week-20
18.Tennessee Volunteers (6-2) W vs Kentucky 33-27, last week-23
19.Utah Utes (6-2) L vs Oregon 35-6, last week-14
20.UCLA Bruins (6-2) W vs Colorado 28-16, last week-21
21.Kansas Jayhawks (6-2) W vs Oklahoma 38-33, last week-unranked
22.Tulane Green Wave (7-1) W vs Rice 30-28, last week-24
23.Kansas State Wildcats (6-2) W vs Houston 41-0, last week-unranked
24.James Madison Dukes (8-0) W vs Old Dominion 30-27, last week-25
25.Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-2) W vs Cincinnati 45-13, last week-unranked
Dropped out of rankings- Duke, North Carolina, USC