When the Ravens trounced the 49ers 33-19 Christmas night, there were a lot of ripple effects in terms of storylines. Here are six thoughts on the game as well as the MVP race, which shifted dramatically as a result of Monday night’s contest.
Thought #1: Monday’s result was the worst possible outcome for Purdy’s MVP case
Monday night’s clash in San Francisco presented a platinum opportunity for both Jackson and Purdy to help their MVP cases. It was a late-season primetime night game (on Christmas) between two Super Bowl contenders who both had legitimate MVP candidates.
These kinds of games are the biggest boosters to national recognition in sports. Back in 2012, Linsanity reached a peak when Jeremy Lin went toe-to-toe with Kobe Bryant on national TV. Throughout DeVonta Smith’s college career, Alabama played in a handful of extremely important games against other elite teams. Here were some of his statlines from those games, which definitely helped his draft stock:
Vs. (3) Georgia in 2018 (College Football Playoff title game): Game-winning touchdown reception in overtime
Vs. (1) LSU in 2019: 7 receptions, 213 yards, 2 touchdowns
Vs. (3) Georgia in 2020: 11 receptions, 167 yards, 2 touchdowns
Vs. (11) Florida in 2020 (conference title game): 15 receptions, 184 yards, 2 touchdowns
Vs. (4) Notre Dame (CFP semifinals): 7 receptions, 130 yards, 3 touchdowns
Vs. (3) Ohio State (CFP title game): 12 receptions, 215 yards, 3 touchdowns (in the first half)
So yeah, the kinds of games like Monday’s between the Ravens and 49ers substantially improve a player’s stock. By the end of the night, Jackson got the boost.
Something I forgot to mention is that these stages can also exacerbate porous performances. Unfortunately for Purdy, his performance on Monday night certainly fell into that category.
Baltimore’s defense soaredall night long, making a Niners offense that was based off of being comfortable anything but. There was little rhythm in large part because the Ravens kept disrupting it. They registered a ludicrous 11 quarterback hits, nine passes defended and five takeaways. San Francisco didn’t just lose; they were dominated.
Purdy finished with a glistening statline of zero touchdowns and four interceptions. While not all of them were his fault, some of them certainly were. Statistically, it was arguably the worst game of Purdy’s football career; he hadn’t thrown four interceptions in a single game in college or high school, and prior to Monday, Purday had registered just two full NFL starts without a passing touchdown.
The loss wasn’t completely catastrophic; catastrophic is losing 63-21 like the Chargers did a couple of weeks ago. However, the loss was still bad enough for Purdy to get solemnly philosophical after the game.
“I’ve got to ask myself: ‘Who are you? What do you stand for? Who are you when things are good? Who are you when things don’t go your way?’” Purdy said. “It’s easy to be riding high and thinking you’re the man when things are going well, and you’re winning games and stuff and you don’t really see a whole lot of adversity in some games and what not. This is the reality of the NFL.”
Yowza! Those are the words of a man fresh off of an uncharacteristic ass-kicking. While recency bias is certainly prevalent, Purdy’s forgettable night in front of tens of millions of people likely sunk his MVP campaign.
Thought #2: Even if Purdy played well on Monday and beyond, I still wouldn’t have chosen him as my MVP
I thought that since hindsight bias makes it easy to say this, I figured it’d be a valuable thought to add.
Prior to Monday, Purdy was the betting favorite to win MVP. In my column last week, I argued why I disagreed with Purdy winning the award and instead advocated for the entire Niners offense to win the award should it have come down to it.
However, many people were pining for Purdy to win the award. I want to highlight a specific take from Emmanuel Acho, who wasn’t just pro-Purdy, but he was arguing why Purdy was higher on his list than Jackson.
The foundation of the pro-Purdy argument (like the one Acho entailed here) relies heavily on quantitative evidence. While it all certainly favors Purdy, lots of awards (including the MVP) aren’t just based on numbers. The NBA, for example, doesn’t just give the MVP award to whoever scored the most points per game; that’s only happened seven times in the 21st century.
One of the numbers Acho mentioned was the fact that Purdy has more playoff wins than Jackson since last season, which is true; Purdy has two, and Jackson has zero. However, QB X having more playoff wins than QB Y in a certain time period does not automatically make QB Y a “better” QB. For example, since the 2020-21 playoffs, Baker Mayfield has more playoff wins than Justin Herbert. Does that make Mayfield a better QB than Herbert? Absolutely not! Besides, winning isn’t done solely by the quarterback; while they’re the most important player on the field, football is very much a team sport. It’s why I also despise when people use wins against baseball pitchers; there are many great pitchers who’ve been let down by their team, and it reflects poorly on their record.
And then, there are the rest of the numbers that say Purdy is still better than Jackson even after Monday. To that, I say this: First, examine the numbers. Look into how that player achieved those numbers. When watching Purdy, it’s easy to see how he’s able to rack up a lot of yards and a lot of touchdowns. He’s able to hit his first read comfortably because it’s almost always open. He doesn’t have to turn into Sisyphus very often and put the team on his back. It’s more so the rest of the team having Purdy’s back.
The quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, on the other hand, has a level of Sisyphus-ness that is a big reason why he’s at the top of the MVP conversation right now.
Thought #3: Jackson is rightfully the current MVP favorite
If Dick Vitale did color commentary for the NFL, “Lamar Jackson” and “Diaper Dandy” would be said in the same sentence quite frequently.
For the small handful of clunkers Jackson has put up this season, he showed out when the lights were the brightest on Monday night. Few quarterbacks have found a lot of success against the Niners defense over the past couple of seasons in large part because of how much they throw at opposing offenses. Jackson was far from intimidated, and he added his name to that short list.
Plays like the one below illustrate the importance of the eye test when determining if one player is superior to another. Watch how the mere threat of Jackson using his legs sucks linebacker Dre Greenlaw towards him like a magnet, opening up Gus Edwards for a huge gain. Purdy ain’t doing this.
That right there is value. Jackson’s ability to yoink defenders out of position by his pure existence is not replaceable. He isn’t the only one to possess this – most of the league’s top signal-callers do (Mahomes, Allen, etc.). However, most of that group hasn’t played very well; Jackson has. He is the main uplifter of Baltimore’s offense; replacing him with a league-average quarterback would likely make the unit substantially worse. They likely wouldn’t be able to Houdini their way out of trouble like Jackson can.
However, Jackson doesn’t have nearly the best numbers amongst his fellow quarterbacks. This is something I touched on earlier, and to that I say…
Thought #4: It’s ok for the MVP to not have the best numbers
By several metrics, Jackson is a middle-of-the-pack QB. He’s ninth in QBR, 15th in passing yards and 14th in passing touchdowns. Plus, according to the 33rd Team, the league leader in EPA per dropback has earned the MVP award in each of the past three seasons; Jackson currently ranks 15th in EPA per dropback. Some names ahead of him include Kirk Cousins, Jordan Love and Jared Goff. Comparatively to many other MVP seasons from QB’s, Jackson’s would be one of the worst from a statistical standpoint.
Here’s my counter to that. Every season is different. The MVP is decided based on who was the most valuable player during that season, not compared to history. This kind of season from Jackson likely wouldn’t have rendered many MVP votes in most other seasons. Here’s a comparison of two players. I’ll give you a hint: One of them is 2023 Lamar Jackson.
Player A: 327/494, 3,805 yards, 21 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 162 carries, 891 yards, 6 touchdowns
Player B: 315/481, 3,819 yards, 33 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 43 carries, 266 yards, 7 touchdowns
Player A is Jackson’s current 17 game pace (so I kind of lied. Sorry about that). Player B is 2020 Ryan Tannehill, who definitely did not have his hat in the MVP ring at any point in the season (and also played just 16 regular season games).
We do this in college basketball, specifically when March Madness rolls around. Oftentimes, you’ll hear stats like “a one seed has only lost to a 16-seed twice”, “the Big Ten hasn’t had a national champion since 2000” or “12 of the last 14 national champions have been schools located east of the Mississippi River”. Like those have anything to do with this season! In some years, the teams east of the Mississippi are stronger, while in some years, the teams west of the Mississippi are stronger. In some years, a 16-seed might match up really well with a one-seed, and the Big Ten might field teams that go deep into the tournament. It’s all dependent on the given season.
Thought #5: I will never understand why so many teams were publicly out on Jackson last offseason
The NFL offseason usually produces strange events, and one of them surrounded Jackson last spring. Despite his open dissatisfaction with the Ravens and obvious desire to move elsewhere, several teams publicly stated that they weren’t interested in pursuing the superstar signal-caller. It’s not like other teams were mum; they went out of their way to say “nah, we’re good”.
One of those teams was the Atlanta Falcons. Their decision to not go after Jackson was puzzling for a few reasons. One was that they had the third-most cap space in the league ($24 million), so it’s not like they couldn’t at least give Jackson a good offer. Second was that their starting QB this season, Desmond Ridder, has been one of the worst in the league and was recently benched for Taylor Heinicke. Third was that the Falcons literally had the left-handed version of Jackson in Michael Vick on their team for several seasons. They knew exactly what it was like to have that kind of QB, and yet, they passed.
Another one of those teams was the Commanders, who I thought would go after Jackson because they haven’t had a legitimately awesome QB last more than two seasons with the team since Joe Theismann. Despite them being in QB purgatory, they opted to stick with Sam Howell, who got benched for Jacoby Brissett this past week against the Jets.
The final team that shall be called out is the Panthers, because it’s not like they didn’t have the resources to trade for a big-time QB. Here’s what they gave up to secure the top overall pick in last year’s draft, which became Bryce Young:
WR D.J. Moore
2023 first-round pick (No. 9 overall; eventually became Darnell Wright)
2023 second-round pick (No. 61 overall; eventually became Tyrique Stevenson)
2024 first-round pick (currently the No. 1 overall pick)
2025 second-round pick
The jury’s still out on Young, who had his best game as a pro on Sunday against the Packers. But right now, Jackson’s lapping Young in overall impact this season
The quarterback is the most important position on the field, and several teams have experienced truly awful quarterbacking this season. I don’t think I’ll ever understand these teams’ lack of pursuit.
Thought #6: The door is still open for others to enter the MVP favorite conversation
With all of that being said, there are still two weeks of football left, which means there’s plenty of time for Jackson to lose the award.
After all, the Ravens take on the Dolphins next week; a poor performance by Lamar and a great performance by Tua Tagovailoa could certainly change things. Then, the week after that, the Dolphins play the Bills, and for as erratic as Josh Allen has been at times this season, hasn’t been too statistically far off from years past. He’s on pace to finish with his highest season-long completion percentage since 2020 and can easily surpass 4,000 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns. Heck, even a couple of strong outings from Dak Prescott could have him right back in the conversation. Then, there’s a candidate that, amidst a rotating cast of quarterbacks, could separate himself by being a running back. Although that same trait is a big reason why many seem hesitant to give him the award, Christian McCaffrey is putting up elite numbers. If you’d like to make the argument that he’s not putting up similar numbers to past running backs that have won the award, I’d push back against that.
2023 Christian McCaffrey (17 game pace): 292 carries, 1,581 yards, 16 touchdowns, 71 receptions, 609 yards, eight touchdowns
2012 Adrian Peterson: 348 carries, 2,097 yards, 12 touchdowns, 40 receptions, 217 yards, one touchdown
2006 LaDanian Tomlinson: 348 carries, 1,1815 yards, 28 touchdowns, 56 receptions, 508 yards, three touchdowns
2005 Shaun Alexander: 370 carries, 1,880 yards, 27 touchdowns, 15 receptions, 78 yards, one touchdown
2000 Marshall Faulk: 253 carries, 1,359 yards, 18 touchdowns, 81 receptions, 830 yards, eight touchdowns
And again, it’s not all about numbers. McCaffrey transformed San Francisco’s offense. Also, McCaffrey has yet to have a “bad” game. His worst statistical outing came against the Browns in large part because he left the game in the (insert) quarter with an oblique injury.
Even amidst a blowout against the Ravens, McCaffrey still registered 131 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Kyren Williams leads the league in rushing yards per game (96.1), but McCaffrey isn’t too far behind him in second (93). Meanwhile, the gap between McCaffrey and third place (David Montgomery with 75.8) is almost as large as the gap between Montgomery and Zack Moss, who’s 16th (58.8).