Overview
The Sun Belt is one of the deeper mid-major conferences. Nine of its 14 members finished .500 or better in conference play, and the conference’s regular season champion, Marshall, placed #9 in the preseason coaches poll. Anything can happen in the “Fun Belt”, and the upcoming conference tournament should be riveting.
The Favorite – Marshall
It’s difficult to poke holes in Marshall’s game. The Thundering Herd come into the tournament winners of the Sun Belt regular season title, losing just once in conference play. Despite the dismissal of 21 PPG scorer Roshala Scott in December, the Thundering Herd haven’t lost a beat. Senior guard Abby Beaman leads Marshall in every major statistical category, and her running mates in the backcourt Breanna Campbell and Aislynn Hayes both contribute close to 15 PPG. The Thundering Herd’s three-headed monster led them to the conference’s top offense, an offense that thrives in transition, getting points off turnovers, which they force at the highest rate in the conference.
Contender – James Madison
Despite the third place regular season finish, James Madison remains the only team to defeat Marshall in conference play, and they did so by dominating the glass. The Dukes boast the Sun Belt’s best rebounding margin, led by 6’4 center Kseniia Kozlova and 6’0 guard Peyton McDaniel. McDaniel (14.5 PPG) and Kozlova (12.2 PPG) are also the Dukes’ top scorers. James Madison has the combination of size and scoring to compete with anyone in the conference, and look to find the consistency necessary to live up to their preseason billing as the top team in the conference.
Contender – Troy
Troy finished second in the regular season standings, on par with preseason expectations, but have been playing their best basketball down the stretch. The Trojans enter the tournament winners of seven straight, with their high-powered offense eclipsing 80 points in six of those games, and even 100 twice. Troy’s starting five features four players averaging over 12 PPG, but the Trojans do lack depth. Troy also ranks at the bottom of the conference in scoring defense, so expect shootouts. Interestingly, Troy and Marshall did not match up during the regular season, so we might see their first bout with a bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line.
The Dark Horse – Southern Miss
Senior guard Domonique Davis can single handedly win Southern Miss some games. The former LSU Tiger willed her team to a win over an SEC opponent and projected NCAA tournament team Ole Miss earlier this season, scoring 25 points against the then 19th ranked Rebels. Davis also turned in performances of 29, 33 and 34 points against top conference contenders Marshall, James Madison and Troy respectively. Davis averaged 19.9 PPG in the regular season, while shooting a stellar 36.4% from beyond the arc. Davis is a dangerous scorer who can catch fire at any time, and sometimes, simply having the best player on the court can lead to unprecedented results. The Eagles held high preseason expectations, placing third in the coaches poll, but now relish the underdog role.
My Prediction – Marshall
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Marshall’s body of work over the course of the regular season leaves me with the least questions about how they’ll perform in March. Despite the low preseason expectations and midseason adversity, Marshall has overcome it all, and I expect them to represent the Sun Belt in the dance.