The Pac-12 women’s basketball tournament tips off Wednesday in Las Vegas, and the soon to be dissipated conference is gearing up for quite the curtain call. The Pac-12 boasts five of the top 25 AP teams in the nation. The top three teams all average a searing 78 points per game. This is one of those conferences where everyone can beat anyone; the bracket will find you sitting at the kitchen table scribbling out your picks four times only to trust your first gut instinct. Who’s the best, and who can beat the best? Let’s discuss!
The standings:
Stanford, USC, UCLA and Oregon State all earned a first-round bye and can scout in the stands until Thursday.
Stanford (26-4, 15-3)
USC (23-5, 13-5)
UCLA (24-5, 13-5)
Oregon State (23-6, 12-6)
Colorado (21-8, 11-7)
Utah (21-9, 11-7)
Arizona (16-14, 8-10)
California (17-13, 7-11)
Washington State (18-13, 7-11)
Washington (16-3, 6-12)
Arizona State (11-19, 3-15)
Oregon (11-20, 2-16)
They’re a top title threat: Stanford
Led by their power forward one-two punch, the Cardinals are on the “Brink” of another conference title, but they’ll need to be careful to protect the ball. Turnover deficits cost them several close conference matchups, including losses to Colorado and USC, this season.
History: Stanford has won five of the past 10 conference titles, but last year’s tournament wasn’t one of them. UCLA upset the No. 1 Cardinals in the semifinal after Stanford dropped a 16 point lead in the second quarter. Stanford coach Tara Vanderveer and her crew hope history won’t repeat itself this season.
Outlook: Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen exhaust defenses as one of the toughest post duos in the nation. Iriafen averages a double double (18.5 ppg and 11 rbg) and shoots 54.5% from the field. Iriafen plays an exponentially more threatening role this season; the dynamic post only scored 6.7 points and 4.8 rebounds per game in 2022/2023. Earlier this season, Brink mentioned she’s grateful to compete with Iriafen. “I wouldn’t want to guard you for real in a game.’ She’s such a beast,” Brink said. Brink, who has yet to announce whether she will forgo her final season of eligibility to enter the WNBA draft, destroys opponents in the paint, averaging 3.6 blocks and 17. 9 points per game.
They’re not going anywhere: USC
The Trojans enter the tournament after sweeping the state of Arizona in an overtime nail biter against Arizona and a comfortable win against Arizona State. Their margin of victory and loss against ranked opponents sits at 10 points or less, excluding their rough defeat to Utah January 19, and rests on the team’s ability to support their freshman phenom, JuJu Watkins.
Outlook:
The Trojans likely already earned a high seed in the NCAA Tournament and will host the opening weekend games on their home court. The Pac-12 tournament will be their chance to generate more momentum heading into the Round of 64 after they won four of their five last games, including close ranked victories against Oregon State and Colorado. Their success almost entirely depends on freshman JuJu Watkins who leads the team and conference in scoring (27.8 ppg). Watkins also won the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week award 14 times. Yes, 14 times in one season. Opponents looking to find an edge must isolate Watkins the moment she crosses the half court line because there’s a harsh cliff after Watkins in scoring efficiency with guard McKenzie Forbes ranking second averaging only 13 points per game. Center Rayah Marshall complements the team’s perimeter attack with strong rebounding and consistent blocking under the net.
They’re basically in a three-way tie for first place: UCLA
If at this point you’re thinking, ‘wait- I thought Stanford or USC are the favorites,’ well, throw the Bruins in the mix too. UCLA split their regular season series with Utah and defeated then No. 18 Colorado, but the Bruins struggled against Stanford and USC.
Outlook: When you think “Bruins basketball,” think balance. UCLA boasts a deep roster and distributes their scoring well. Defenses can’t rely on isolating just one threat; the Bruins, led by Lauren Betts at center, will readjust. UCLA’s achilles heal seems to be ball protection. They average 15 turnovers a game and don’t usually shoot at a quick enough clip to recover in high pressure scenarios.
They could also very likely win if they can find a way to beat UCLA in the second round: Utah
Calling Utah an “underdog” disrespects their resume, but they face a challenging route to the championship, so they may be at most risk of an early departure from the conference bracket if their dangerous scoring doesn’t heat up and stay hot.
Season recap: Utah’s regular season was so strange. They recorded four 100+ point games, played No. 2 Stanford and No. 1 South Carolina closer than most programs could, upset Colorado and USC… and lost to unranked Washington their last game of the season by 15. While they can dance with any team in the Pac-12, their No. 6 seed will find them facing UCLA in the second round, a matchup that didn’t go well for them earlier this season. The Utes lost 82-52 after going 3-of-15 from behind the arc and shooting 32% from the field compared to the Bruins’ 49% shooting clip. Their 20 turnovers only made matters worse. However, they have the talent and resume to rewrite history.
Outlook: Utah shoots the ball incredibly well. They shoot 48% from the field and lead the conference averaging 78.9 points per game. Six-foot-two Anchorage, Alaska native Alissa Pili is nearly unstoppable in the lane (21 ppg), and works well in transition with guard Gianna Kneepkens. The Utes are a rhythmic offense whose pace will tire you out on defense, but, if opponents can disrupt their scoring, they can crack Utah’s attack.
They’re a “dark horse” threat: Colorado, Arizona
I struggle to recommend a “dark horse” threat because many of these programs, including Colorado, boast national prestige and wouldn’t shock anyone if they reached the Sweet 16 or beyond. Colorado rode a roller coaster this season, but its descents were scary enough to rank them lower in conference play. Meanwhile, Arizona slipped just out of the national rankings toward the end of the season, but they also defeated Stanford and barely lost to USC in an overtime game that scared the Trojans.
Outlook: They’re both really good too, I promise. Don’t overlook them.
Prediction: UGH! This conference is nearly impossible to predict because of the wealth of talent and close regular season matchups. No team dominates, so every team can carve a path to the championship. That said, USC’s high scoring brigade seems like it could roll right into the Round of 64. The Trojans will be the last conference champions the Pac-12 may see in a while.