Overview
The American Athletic Conference has been anything but predictable this season. The two teams receiving first place votes in the preseason poll finished fifth and ninth in the regular season standings, respectively. The three teams who claimed a share of the regular season title were picked seventh, ninth and twelfth in the preseason poll. Anything can happen in this conference, and the only sure thing is that it’ll be exciting.
The Favorite – Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane clinched the American regular season title while riding a five game winning streak, notching a key win over Temple in the process. Two of the conference’s top three scorers lead the way for Tulsa, with forward Temira Poindexter (20.8 PPG) doing most of the work inside, while guard Delanie Crawford (19.3 PPG) is a flamethrower from the perimeter (40.2% 3PT). Tulsa has been hot lately, and will go as far as Poindexter and Crawford can take them.
Tulsa does have glaring weaknesses despite the high-end talent. For one, they’re a completely different team at home compared to away from it. The Donald W. Reynolds Center was a fortress this season, with Tulsa defending home court to a 13-1 record. In true road games though, Tulsa was a pedestrian 6-6 overall, including a brutal loss to conference bottom-dweller Wichita State (9-21 overall). Additionally, the lack of a true third option behind Poindexter and Crawford is striking. Tulsa only had one game this season where Poindexter or Crawford did not lead the team in scoring, a December blowout win over Texas Southern. Tulsa is also one of the worst rebounding teams in the conference,
I respect Tulsa’s regular season body of work, and their positioning in the bracket as the No. 1 seed greatly aids their chances of winning the conference tournament, but I won’t commit to them doing so.
Contender – North Texas
The Mean Green boast the conference’s best offense. They quite simply score the most points in the conference, and do so at the most efficient clip. North Texas is led by a post duo of DesiRay Kernal (16.6 PPG) and Tommisha Lampkin (15.6 PPG, conference-best 63.3% FG), who are complemented by a variety of skilled guards. North Texas, like Tulsa, comes into the conference tournament hot, winners of four straight to close out the regular season. The Mean Green’s No. 2 seed should only feed into the underdog mentality they’ve adopted this season, as they were picked to finish 12th in the preseason coaches poll.
Contender – Temple
The Owls offer a different style of play than most of their conference counterparts. Temple’s top four scorers are all guards, any of which can step up to lead the team on any given night. Temple also has the necessary personnel in the frontcourt to compete with bigger lineups though, their defense remained among the best in the conference and they were a net positive team on the glass. There’s nothing too gaudy about Temple, but maybe that’s what deters me from believing in them. They’ve shown the ability to beat inferior competition, but Tulsa and North Texas both dealt the Owls losses on their home floor.
Contender – UTSA
The Roadrunners are by far the best rebounding team in the conference, and they have only improved in this category as of late with the addition of senior forward Jordyn Jenkins. Jenkins has played in the Roadrunners’ last eight games, and has instantly become the team’s leading scorer (14.5 PPG) and second leading rebounder (7.5 RPG). With Jenkins, UTSA now has five 10 PPG scorers in the lineup. The lineup has shown their potential. Theypickedup a road win at North Texas in Jenkins’ third game back, with Jenkins scoring 29 points.
Despite Jenkins’ return to the lineup giving the Roadrunners a boost, it doesn’t really change their brand of basketball, which leaves them vulnerable to the right matchup. UTSA shoots the three at a 28.7% clip, which doesn’t allow them to go on big runs. These runs allow teams to not only pull away from inferior competition, but also fight back when facing a large deficit. UTSA’s brand of basketball is a double-edged sword, and a sword I think they ultimately fall on.
The Dark Horse – Charlotte
The 49ers are about as average as it gets by most standards. Their 9-9 conference record earned them the No. 6 seed in the conference tournament. One thing does does stand out for Charlotte is their leading scorer Dazia Lawrence. Her 18.2 PPG ranks fourth in the conference and she averages nearly two steals per game on the defensive end. Additionally, Charlotte swept the regular season series with North Texas. Charlotte has shown the ability to play up to competition, but whether or not they’re consistent enough to string together wins like necessary in the tournament remains to be seen.
My Pick – North Texas
Let the underdogs keep barking. The Mean Green have very few holes to poke in their game and come into the conference tournament flying high. I expect their winning streak to continue en route to a NCAA Tournament bid.