When Mark Morrison released “Return of the Mack” in April 1997, one could easily assume that he couldn’t contain his excitement for the eventual return of MAAC basketball later that November.
Best of all, if that was in fact the case, Morrison got a heck of a tournament, as last-seeded Fairfield made a miracle run to the championship game in 1998, where the Stags knocked off No. 2-seeded Canisius to steal a bid to the Dance. Even better, they gave top-seeded North Carolina a run for its money, only losing by eight to the Tar Heels.
Whether Morrison was singing about MAAC hoops or not, the heart of mid-major basketball in the Northeast (and, as of Mount St. Mary’s joining the conference in 2022, Maryland too) is set to descend upon Atlantic City for what should be another competitive conference tournament.
Since its genesis in 1981, the MAAC has gifted college basketball fans so much, from Cinderella stories to Rick Pitino to famous benches to double orders of onions and lots of things in-between. However, it’ll be tough to top its most famous March escapade, which came in 2022 on the back of Saint Peter’s becoming the first 15-seed to ever reach the Elite Eight.
While that expectation might be unrealistic for this collection of MAAC squads, the Peacocks proved that March makes impossibilities almost non-existent. Besides, the MAAC has usually done pretty well in the Big Dance. Besides Saint Peter’s in 2022, Siena and Manhattan both have multiple NCAAT wins in the 21st century, and Iona battled valiantly against Ford-tough competition throughout its MAAC dominance over the past decade.
Something else that makes this conference a must-watch is how crazy its postseason had been in recent memory. The last six tournaments have seen a No. 4 seed or higher make the tournament championship game, and the last five tournaments have seen a No. 6 seed or higher make the semifinals. Does that mean chaos will consume the MAAC once again this season? Not at all, but it’s interesting to think about.
The Godfathers:
Quinnipiac (23-8, 15-5 MAAC)
Am I slightly partial to the Bobcats because they’re one of two D1 basketball teams whose school name starts with the same letter as my name? Naturally, yes, but I’ll keep personal bias out of this. The Q will be looking for its first invite to the Big Dance since moving up to Division I in 1998, and this year looks to be its best shot in at least a decade.
The Bobcats are led by sixth-year veteran forward Matt Balanc, who hails from Silver Spring, MD and went to high school at Springbrook, which is about 45 minutes away from where I went to high school. It’s like God is begging me to root for the Q.
Balanc is flanked by a stellar supporting cast, which includes point guard and fellow sixth-year player Savion Lewis, who is currently fourth in the nation in assists per game and broke the program’s single-season assist record on Mar. 3. He fits the mold of point guards who’ve taken over March before: small, quick, scrappy, fearless and filled with pizazz. Him and big man Paul Otieno have formed an elite pick-and-roll duo, as Otieno is one of the best finishing big men in the nation.
Wofford transfer Amarri Tice is Quinnipiac’s everything man on both ends of the floor. Like Lewis, Tice is in the stratosphere of program history, as the explosive sophomore is about to become QU’s all-time single season steal leader. He’s also a tough cookie; in early February, he took a shot to the nose, banged his head on press row and sprained his ankle in the span of eight days, but he kept playing.
Elsewhere, Alexis Reyes and Richie Springs are solid ancillary scoring forwards, and Doug Young is the same at the guard spot. One wild card to look out for is Rihards Vavers, who’s shooting 37 percent from three on over four attempts per game. He’s similar to fellow Latvian three-point specialist Davis Bertans in that he can disappear for stretches, but can also get red hot from beyond the arc at a moment’s notice.
The Bobcats are the most complete team in the conference, as they’re the only MAAC team in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re also by far the best free-throw shooting team in the conference, a full two percentage points better than second place.
One problem area for Quinnipiac that reared its ugly head a few times has been second half meltdowns. Several of QU’s eight losses saw the Bobcats play a competitive first half, then get trampled over the final 20 minutes. Another common theme in some of those losses was Lewis being a relative non-factor offensively. While Lewis is, as mentioned before, a pass-first guard, him scoring the ball will be essential to Quinnipiac’s postseason success.
Fairfield (20-11, 14-6 MAAC)
The Stags are enjoying their best season in over a decade under first-year coach Chris Casey, and they have a stellar shot at their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1997.
FU is led by an eff you big three at guard in Jalen Leach, Caleb Fields and Brycen Goodine, all of whom are in the conference’s top ten in scoring. Leach is a silky smooth ball-handler and finisher whoexploded into playing a more prominent role this season. Fields excels behind the arc, as he’s shooting 41 percent on eight attempts per game. His best work came against Marist on Jan. 7, when he knocked down 10 triples against the Red Foxes. After struggling at Syracuse and Providence, Goodine has blossomed into one of the best 3-point shooters in the country, as he’s shooting nearly 50 percent from downtown on over five attempts per game. He hit at least six threes four times this season, including a 37-point, eight-triple explosion on Mar. 7 against Canisius.
Behind that trio, the Stags are the best 3-point shooting team in the conference, as they take and make the most triples while also recording the highest percentage, too. From 2018 UMBC to 2016 Middle Tennessee State, lighting up opponents from downtown uplifted numerous Davids over Goliaths in the Big Dance.
However, the downside to shooting is that it can sink a team as much as it can keep it afloat, and the Stags are no strangers to that. A common theme in Fairfield’s losses was poor shootingpoorly; the Stags shot below 40 percent from the field six times this season and lost all six of those games. On the other hand, Fairfield is 14-0 when shooting at least 38 percent from downtown.
The Hudson River-sized logjam in the middle:
Almost all of the following teams are within four conference games of each other, which could make for an interesting set of middle round contests.
Marist (17-12, 12-8 MAAC)
Should the Red Foxes make a run through Atlantic City, its nationally-great defense will likely be the main cause. They allow the sixth fewest points per game in the entire country, albeit against a weaker schedule.
The main issue for Marist lies on the other end of the court, as the Red Foxes really struggle offensively. Outside of Manhattan and Siena (who are easily the two worst teams in the conference), Marist sports the lowest offensive rating in the MAAC. MU has a few capable scorers, but no one strikes any serious fear into defenses. Worst of all, the Red Foxes are a staggering 1-11 when they give up 65 or more points.
Rider (15-16, 12-8 MAAC)
A big reasonRider was picked to win the MAAC in the preseason poll was how much returning production the Broncs had. In a conference ravaged by the transfer portal, the Broncs were largely able to avoid catastrophic personnel turnover.
One of those returners was star forward Mervin James, who’s arguably the most consistently awesome player in the MAAC. The conference’s preseason Player of the Year is a near-20 point per game scorer who hasn’t had too many off nights offensively.
The Broncs started the season on a rough patch, as they succumbed to a gauntlet of a non-conference schedule that included Marquette, Nebraska, Maryland and Penn State en route to a 3-11 start. But the good news for Rider is that they’re riding high at the right time. The Broncs ended the regular season on a seven-game winning streak, including a win over Quinnipiac.
Under Kevin Baggett (10 seasons), the Broncs finished in the top 3 of the MAAC standings six times, but have only made the tournament semifinals once. 2024 presents a pretty good chance for Rider to not only get there, but possibly advance to the championship game.
Saint Peter’s (16-13, 12-8 MAAC)
While not a single player remains from the legendary 2022 squad, this year’s Peacocks have the feathers to get back to the Big Dance.
On offense, Corey Washington is the engine that makes this team go. He experienced the opposite of a sophomore slump, increasing his points per game total by ten.
The Peacocks have really made their money on defense, as they’re one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank in the top-25 in defensive rating and points per game allowed. They’ve given up more than 72 points just twice this season, and they came against Quinnipiac and Fairfield. SPU’s main issue is that they struggle offensively, especially outside of Washington. Marcus Randolph is a steady 3-point shooter, but similarly to Marist, the Peacocks don’t have a deep collection of high-level scorers.
Niagara (15-15, 11-9 MAAC)
If there’s one team in the MAAC whose record could easily be a lot better than it is, Niagara’s that team. They’ve played in 19 single-digit games and won 11 of them. However, two of those losses were in overtime, and especially considering how close everyone in the middle of the MAAC was to each other in the standings, a few more of those games going Niagara’s way would have pushed them toward the top.
The Purple Eagles aren’t particularly great at anything, but they’re dangerously well-balanced on offense.They have five players averaging at least nine points per game and have the third-highest offensive rating in the conference. They’re also tied with Mount St. Mary’s for the highest team-wide field goal percentage.
They’re also an interesting team when it comes to long-range shooting. (Heineken Most Interesting Man in the World voice) Niagara doesn’t shoot threes often, but when they do, they make them (exit scene). The Purple Eagles attempt the second-fewest triples in the conference, but their efficiency ranks only behind Fairfield.
This team is very enigmatic. Niagara played Syracuse close, beat Fairfield and took Quinnipiac to overtime. On the other hand, NU has also lost to Manhattan and Siena. This is the kind of team that can easily win the conference championship but could lose in the first round just as easily.
Iona (15-16, 10-10 MAAC)
Fresh off of the most epic New York guarantee since Joe Namath, former Fairleigh Dickinson head coach Tobin Anderson looked to continue the same success Rick Pitino had in New Rochelle for years.
While the Gaels achieved far from the success they achieved in prior years, they didn’t completely bottom out. They have two wins over Fairfield and a dominant win over mid-major powerhouse Colgate on their resume. Iona also gave Colorado a tough test on the road, although the Buffaloes pulled away in the second half.
Iona isn’t amazing at much…except creating turnovers. The Gaels force nearly 16 turnovers per game, which ranks in the top-15 nationally.
Mount St. Mary’s (13-18, 9-11 MAAC)
One interesting thing about the Mountaineers is that they’ve rarely stunk. Since moving up to Division I in 1988, they’ve won less than a third of their conference games just three times.
This year was no different; funny enough, they were the only MAAC team to finish in the exact place they were projected in the preseason poll.
The Mountaineers are led by Dakota Leffew, a true three-level scorer who dropped 34 points on Marist on Feb. 2. Leffew is flanked by two solid scoring guards in De’Shayne Montgomery and Josh Reaves, both of whom shoot above 37 percent from three.
Like most teams in this conference, Mount St. Mary’s has an up-and-down resume. The Mountaineers battled against Maryland, Ole Miss and Georgia. They also dominated Quinnipiac and have two big wins over Marist.
Canisius (13-17, 8-12 MAAC)
If there’s a double-digit seed in any conference tournament that could pull some upsets, Canisius is definitely one of them.
The Golden Griffins have a lot of roster continuity and are an experienced team, as their five top scorers are all upper-classmen. They’re led by Tre Dinkins, whose buzzer-beating swish from halfcourt lifted Canisius to its fourth win in six games on Saturday.
They also have a stellar supporting cast. Walking energy ball Frank Mitchell leads the conference in rebounds, and Siem Uijtendaal has elevated himself into a prominent scoring role in his senior season. TJ Gadsden has also contributed nicely.
Looking back at the team as a whole, Canisius’ record isn’t indicative of how good they are. In its non-conference slate, Canisius played Syracuse, Pitt and High Point close and actually beat St. Bonaventure and Western Kentucky. In MAAC play, the Golden Griffins beat Quinnipiac by 20 in the conference opener, and their two losses to Rider have been by a combined seven points.
Fuhgetabout it (probably):
As stated before, crazier things have happened in this tournament, but the following two teams are definitely in the cellar, and I’d be shocked if either of them made a run in Atlantic City.
Manhattan (7-22, 4-16 MAAC)
The Jaspers are far removed from what they used to be; a big part of their struggles this season has been the complete roster overhaul that happened last offseason.
This season has been defined by a horrendous stretch from early December until late February. After outlasting Mount St. Mary’s in overtime on Dec. 1, the Jaspers dropped 19 of their next 20 games, which included eight losses in single-digit contests.
Siena (4-27, 3-17 MAAC)It’s been a forgettable season for Siena, who just completed its worst campaign in over 60 years.
The Saints aren’t just the worst team in the MAAC; they’re one of the worst teams in all of Division I. Only three teams in the nation are rated lower on KenPom, and only three teams average fewer points per game than Siena, who’s scored 50 or fewer points as many times as it’s scored 70 or more (4).
It’s a real shame, especially for a guy like Sean Durugordon, who finally found his footing at his third school in three seasons, averaging nearly 20 points per game. The only issue is that he couldn’t play until late December, as his transfer waiver didn’t get approved until around then.
Unfortunately, as much as I’d love to get behind the underdog, Ronald Moore ain’t walking through the door.
Predictions:
Opening Round
No. 9 Canisius over No. 8 Mount St. Mary’s
No. 7 Iona over No. 10 Manhattan
No. 6 Niagara over No. 11 Siena
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Quinnipiac over No. 9 Canisius
No. 2 Fairfield over No. 7 Iona
No. 6 Niagara over No. 3 Marist
No. 5 Saint Peter’s over No. 4 Rider
Semifinals
No. 1 Quinnipiac over No. 5 Saint Peter’s
No. 2 Fairfield over No. 6 Niagara
Championship
No. 1 Quinnipiac over No. 2 Fairfield
For as bonkers as the MAAC tournament has been over the past handful of years, Quinnipiac and Fairfield have separated themselves as the class of the conference, and I think they’ll meet in the championship. Part III of Iona-Fairfield and potentially Niagara-Fairfield would make me a little nervous if I were a Stags fan, as those are the only two MAAC teams with two wins over Fairfield, but I think FU would get the job done.
For me, Quinnipiac and Fairfield are very even, and they’ve played two very evenly-matched games, with each team winning one game apiece. Both teams also enter the tournament hot; QU ended the season on a four-game winning streak, and FU won eight of its last 10.
But should these two teams meet in the final, I think the Bobcats finally get it done. They have so many viable scoring options, and they’ve put the formula to take down Fairfield in action. When they took down the Stags on Jan. 28, Fairfield shot 5/26 from three, which helped offset Quinnipiac’s tough night on offense.
Fairfield has the ingredients to make a run not just to the MAAC title, but into March Madness as well. However, that recipe could easily set the kitchen on fire, which could pave the way for Quinnipiac needing some new dancing shoes next week.