Every March, Big 12 country focuses on Kansas City and the T-Mobile Center, and that time is upon us once again. Here are the tournament outlooks for the top men’s programs:
Favorite
Houston: The Cougars enter the Big 12 tournament as the clear favorite. They are the best team in the conference and arguably the best in the nation. Houston finished 15-3 in conference play, ending their season with a dominant 30-point win over Kansas at home. Most of their success comes down to the conference player of the year, Jamal Shead. The senior guard from Manor, Texas, averaged 6.2 assists per game with 2.3 steals per game and 13.2 points per game. Shead, however, was not Houston’s only output. All-conference second-team guard L.J. Cryer averaged 15.7 points per game, creating a supporting cast that dominated the rest of the Big 12. Houston has the best defense in the country, allowing only 56.9 points per game. This is a team set up well to win in March.
Contenders
Iowa State: The Cyclones had arguably their best team in a generation, finishing undefeated at Hilton Coliseum for the first time since the 2001 season. Iowa State’s roster does not have many prolific scorers. Still, it has several key players, including first-team all-conference guard Tamin Lipsey, second-team all-conference guard Keshon Gilbert, and conference all-freshman team forward Milan Momcilovic. These three have been at the core of the Cyclones’ success and have provided much of the offensive spark. The Cyclones’ identity, however, is found more in their gritty defense, a characteristic of the TJ Otzelberger-coached team for the past three years. The Cyclones will also play with a chip on their shoulder following a season-ending loss to rival Kansas State.
Baylor: The Bears finished a close third to the Cyclones with a record of 11-7 in conference play. Baylor’s success has come as a product of conference freshman of the year Ja’Kobe Walter, who leads the team in scoring with an average of 14.7 points per game. Baylor is another team that relies on defense and has been dominant on that side of the ball this season. They have flown under the radar in the conference despite major wins over teams such as Iowa State and Kansas. Baylor, however, struggled in Kansas City the past two seasons, getting upset in the quarterfinals each time.
Dark Horses
Texas Tech: Texas Tech has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country this season, flying in and out of the polls. They previously led the conference with a record of 6-1, but they fell to 11-7 by the end of the season. They had massive wins over teams like Kansas and Baylor but also struggled against the conference’s lower half, losing to UCF, Texas and Cincinnati. Their success depends on leading scorer Pop Isaacs, who averaged 16 points per game. If the right Texas Tech team shows up at T-Mobile Center, they can go all the way. If the other Texas Tech team shows up, it will be a short-lived Kansas City experience.
BYU: The Cougars played well for their first year in the conference and did better than most expected them to, finishing 10-8 in conference play. BYU is among the few teams in the Big 12 that don’t play a more defensive style. They like to space the ball around the perimeter and fire away from behind the arc. They lead the conference in points per game at 82.2 and have the third-best point differential with +12.7. They don’t have one prolific scorer and have four different players averaging over ten-plus points per game. On a night when BYU is shooting well, they can beat anyone in the country.
Kansas: The Jayhawks had a disappointing year, tallying the most conference losses since Roy Williams’ first year as head coach in 2003. They have two all-conference players: Kevin McCullar and Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson. However, neither player is known to be playing in the tournament, as Dickinson has a dislocated shoulder, which he suffered against Houston. McCullar battled a knee injury in the second half of the season and did not play in the second half of the season-ending Houston game. Outside of those two, freshman guard Johnny Furphy has been a bright spot for the Jayhawks, being one of the better 3-point shooters in the conference. However, Kansas’ big problem is not their players or injuries but their game environment. The Jayhawks have been unable to win away from Allen Fieldhouse, going only 2-7 on the road in conference play.
Despite not mentioning all the teams, every team outside the bottom two or three has a real shot at taking home the title and punching their ticket to the big dance. The Big 12 is a gauntlet where every single win takes a fight. None of these teams should be counted out now or when it comes time for the NCAA tournament. That said, my pick to win is the Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State has beaten almost every team in the conference this year at least once. They also gave Houston their most challenging test at home, falling by only eight.
Regarding a neutral court, I would pick Iowa State over every team in the conference, but the court won’t necessarily be neutral. The T-Mobile Center has been referred to as Hilton South for a reason, as the Cyclones always bring a large fanbase to Kansas City, and it should be no different this year. Once again, this tournament should shape up to be one of the best in college basketball.