Overview
The WAC is a surefire one-bid league featuring Grand Canyon – and everyone else. The Lopes hit a few bumps on the road, but still found their way to the top of the standings, as we’ve grown accustomed to in the past few years. This is possibly the best rendition we’ve seen of GCU, and as long as they take care of business in Las Vegas, they’ll have their best chance yet to win their first NCAA Tournament game in program history.
The Favorite – Grand Canyon
The Lopes are overwhelming favorites to win the WAC tournament, and for good reason. It’s hard to poke holes in their game; they score with ease, they defend well, and they rebound well. There’s not much more you can ask for out of a basketball team. The cherry on top? The Lopes are led by WAC player of the year Tyon Grant-Foster.
Grant-Foster has one of the most inspiring stories in the sport; multiple collapses and near-death experiences on the court had Grant-Foster go nearly two years without playing before returning this season at Grand Canyon and taking college basketball by storm. Grant-Foster was the WAC’s top scorer, averaging 19.4 PPG and scoring effectively at all three levels.
Grant-Foster is just one of three 10+ PPG scorers for Grand Canyon. Senior forward Gabe McGlothan offers a lot as a stretch forward, averaging 13.5 PPG while shooting 42.1% from three and 50.7% from mid-range. McGlothan also leads GCU in rebounding (7.3 RPG), a big reason why the Lopes excel on the glass. Junior guard Ray Harrison, like McGlothan, is extremely effective in the mid-range and is right behind McGlothan in scoring, averaging 13.4 PPG.
With their positioning as the No. 1 seed, GCU is just two wins away from their third NCAA Tournament appearance in four years, all under head coach Bryce Drew. GCU never made the NCAA Tournament prior to Drew’s arrival, and deserves tons of credit for the program’s uprising.
I’m more worried for Grand Canyon about a potential semifinal matchup with Seattle than anyone the Lopes would face in the conference title. I expect GCU to take the rubber match against Seattle in the semifinal en route to a conference title and NCAA Tournament berth.
Contender – Tarleton State
The Texans are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their recent transition from Division II, but that won’t stop them from trying to capture a WAC title. Tarleton State placed second in the conference during the regular season, and even upset Grand Canyon in Stephenville. Whether or not that result is replicable is another question. Grand Canyon led by as many as 15, but Tarleton State stormed back in the second half due to 40 attempts from the free throw line. In the first matchup in Phoenix, Grand Canyon came out with a resounding 26 point victory in which Tarleton State only shot six free throws. I think that result is more indicative of the gap between the two teams, but I had to mention Tarleton State as a contender as that’s who I expect to face GCU in the title game.
The Dark Horse – Seattle
It seemingly doesn’t matter who Seattle plays, it’s bound to be a close game. Twenty of the Redhawks’ 31 games have been decided by 10 points or less, and they’ve played overtime five times. Seattle split the season series with conference favorite Grand Canyon, winning at home, but losing in Phoenix after pushing the Lopes to overtime.
On their best day, Seattle can compete with anyone, due largely in part to first team all-WAC selection Cameron Tyson. Tyson can score at all three levels but excels from beyond the arc, shooting 37.9% from three on nearly nine attempts per game. Tyson is just one of four 10+ PPG scorers for Seattle. He’s flanked in the backcourt by another flamethrower in John Christofilis (12.9 PPG, 40.9% 3PT) as well as Alex Schumacher (13.4 PPG), who does a little bit of everything, leading Seattle in assists (4.9 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG). Forward Brandon Chatfield (10.0 PPG) rounds out the quartet, doing most of his work in the paint at an efficient 60.9% FG. Despite the offensive talent, the Redhawks turn the ball over at one of the highest rates in the country. If Seattle can stay on schedule offensively, they can be dangerous, but they haven’t shown the ability to consistently do so.
Despite having multiple capable scoring threats, Seattle’s defense outshines its offense. Quite simply, the Redhawks make it very difficult to make shots, whether it be from inside the arc (47.2% allowed) or outside of it (29.7% allowed). Playing such tough defense does come with a cost though, Seattle sends its opponents to the free throw line at one of the highest rates in the country.
Seattle is a very talented team that does a lot of things well, but a few things quite awfully. If the Redhawks can tie up their loose ends, they can absolutely win three consecutive games en route to a conference title. Doing so is much easier said than done, especially with the Redhawks coming into the tournament losers of three straight.
My Prediction
First Round
No. 5 Utah Valley over No. 8 Cal Baptist
No. 7 Abilene Christian over No. 6 Stephen F. Austin
Quarterfinals
No. 4 Seattle over No. 5 Utah Valley
No. 7 Abilene Christian over No. 3 UT Arlington
Semifinals
No. 1 Grand Canyon over No. 4 Seattle
No. 2 Tarleton State over No. 7 Abilene Christian
Championship
No. 1 Grand Canyon over No. 2 Tarleton State
Resulting Bracketology
Grand Canyon – 12 Seed