Welcome to October.
For the first time in quite a while, this year’s edition of the Major League Baseball playoffs will start directly on the first of the month (take notes, Rob Manfred. This is what the people want). We have four games today, all spread out from 1:30 CT through 7:30 for the best viewing experience we could ask for. Yes, I’ll be using the word ‘we’ throughout this column, because the enticing experience of the MLB playoffs is a joyous one deserved to be shared together.
To kick things off, the Tigers will be making their first postseason appearance in a decade, against a team that feels like it hasn’t missed it in that same time span. Next, the other AL Central upstart faces a team full of individual arrivistes hungry for postseason revenge. Then, on the NL side, what feels like one of the most playoff-ready teams up in Milwaukee takes on the team that just won the craziest game of the regular season literally yesterday. Will that momentum carry over a day later? Finally, for the nightcap, the best team over the past two months looks to continue its dominance over what looks like the weakest Braves team in recent memory.
This should be absolute cinema.
What a time of year it is to be a sports fan in general, with football in full swing and the two major American winter sports starting up their respective preseasons. And now, a full damn slate of enticing postseason baseball to gorge yourself on as well. Like at Applebee’s, we’re eating good in the neighborhood.
We’ve got a season’s worth of storylines to brief ourselves on just before this dance hits the ballroom floor, so let’s get into those, and then I’ll break down each matchup in more depth before giving my predictions. Yes, I will keep records and hold myself accountable, that’s important around these parts. Without further adieu, let’s get right into it.
Great players, but no great teams
Now, this might seem almost disrespectful to say, but hear me out. This year’s best team record-wise was the Dodgers, with 98 wins. No team reached the century mark this season, which seems hard to believe as the White Sox were busy piling up a record number in the loss column. The last time this happened was all the way back in 2014, which so happens to be the last time we saw Detroit grace a postseason box score as well. Does this actually mean there aren’t any great teams? That’s up for you to decide.
My theory is that there are a ton of very good teams that made recording extravagant amounts of wins very difficult. Both of the top Wild Card teams had at least 90 wins, and the other four all finished at least ten games over .500. For Pete (Alonso?)’s sake, two teams that were 88-72 entering the final day of the season had to play a doubleheader just to clinch playoff berths. Just last year, we saw two 84-78 teams in the NL Wild Card round.
Even without a massive favorite this year to win it all, we just witnessed a season that included some of the best individual offensive performances ever. Shohei Ohtani’s 50-50 season was the most nationally notable, putting up 411 total bases which was the most since Barry Bonds and Luis Gonzalez in 2001. Aaron Judge just had his best season of his career, and hit better than Ohtani did at the plate measured by both wRC+ and OPS. Historically, he just had the best non-Bonds and Ruth offensive season of all time.
A star was also cemented into the Kansas City sky this summer, and fans call him Bobby Witt Jr. The league’s second 10-fWAR player after Aaron Judge lit up in front of crowds at Kauffman Stadium, dazzling with power, speed and elite defense. If it wasn’t for Judge’s historic offensive season, Witt would have been the first Royal to win MVP since George Brett in 1980.
Here’s to hoping we see these supernovas shining bright throughout the postseason, and perhaps one of the three even winning their first rings.
NL Rookie of the Year race
This might be the most compelling Rookie of the Year race I’ve ever seen, and to nobody’s surprise, phenom flamethrower Paul Skenes is the favorite to win the award. He has exceeded everyone’s already sky-high expectations, pitching to a league-low 1.96 ERA over a respectable 133 innings. He just blew away Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in his last start of the year, and is going to be the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young award next season.
However, the more surprising aspect in the race is that San Diego Padres rookie outfielder Jackson Merrill has even made this a debate. Merrill took the league by storm from the moment he debuted in Seoul on March 20. Out of all rookies who have played more than 50 games, Merrill leads by a wide margin in OPS, batting average and WAR. The counting stats are there, too, as he has hit the most home runs and doubles out of all rookies. He also seems to have the mysterious ‘clutch gene’, racking up six game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the 8th inning or later, the most of anybody in baseball.
While I still lean Skenes for my ROY pick because of his absurd dominance on the mound, you can’t really go wrong with either of these two guys.
The…AL Central?
At one point before the season, most people thought the AL Central would be one of the worst divisions in baseball, and that the Twins would basically have a free ride to the postseason.
Both of those have turned out to be very wrong.
Not one, not two, but THREE Central teams will be playing for the Commissioner’s Trophy this October, but none of them reside in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The Cleveland Guardians are the league’s most surprising team this year, winning 92 games alongside the division. The two runner-ups in the division, the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, arguably are the next two biggest surprises in the league as well.
The Guardians, whom most expected to ride the tailwinds of an elite staff and bullpen, won with offense in 2024. Jose Ramirez was the best version of his already-elite self, finishing one homer short of a 40-40 season. Josh Naylor was solid, Steven Kwan almost hit .300, and breakout C/1B David Fry stabilized the lineup. Of course, they still had all-world flamethrowing closer Emmanuel Clase to finish off opponents, and he could be the first reliever to finish top-3 in Cy Young voting in 16 years.
The Tigers and Royals mostly relied on great pitching and timely offense. Tarik Skubal was the horse for Detroit (more on him later), while Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo were a two-headed beast in KC. I don’t see a ton separating those two teams in the Fall Classic, so breakout players will be needed for them to make noise.
Triple-Double Crown
In baseball, a pitcher’s Triple Crown is when a player leads his league in strikeouts, ERA, and wins. Now, these certainly aren’t the end-all be-all of pitcher statistics anymore, but it’s safe to say leading all of these means you had a pretty dominant season. In a full season, no pitcher has won a Triple Crown since 2011, when Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander both did.
That is, until this year. We’re seeing deja vu, with both Chris Sale in the National League and Tarik Skubal in the AL winning the crown. What are the chances that the last two years we had a Triple Crown winner, they also had a running mate in the opposite league?
Sale compiled an 18-3 record with a 2.38 ERA and 225 Ks, while Skubal finished 18-4, a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts. So, the Braves’ ace bested Detroit’s for the ERA title, but Skubal punched out a few more. Overall, the seasons are eerily similar, almost down to the decimals.
Imagine if these guys were in the same league and we had to vote for one over the other for the Cy!
One thing we do know is that it will make Cy Young voting more of a formality than a real decision. We will also get to see both these aces take the mound in the postseason, unlike 2011 where Kershaw and the Dodgers missed out.
Now, it’s finally time to get into these matchups.
Tigers (6) at Astros (3)
In my eyes, this series will be won on the bump. We talked about the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, but they also have gotten contributions from Reese Olson and Casey Mize. In the pen, Tyler Holton has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year. He could be America’s new favorite soft-tossing lefty, as he broke onto the scene this year sitting 91 with his cutter, armed with a dagger of a slider that causes hitters to whiff almost 35% of the time.
Holton and Beau Brieske will shoulder a huge load of the relief innings for Detroit, which will need to shutdown Houston’s offense that always seems to ignite at home at Minute Maid Park in the playoffs.
To counter Skubal in the opening game, the Astros will look to a familiar name in ace Framber Valdez, who pitched to a sub-3 ERA yet again this year. He will be followed up with Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco in games 2 and 3, with Yusei Kikuchi also being an option somewhere along the line if Joe Espada needs him. The pen is also a strength for this team, with Bryan Abreu and Tayler Scott providing good innings to set up Josh Hader at the back end.
Where the Astros should set themselves apart is at the plate. Yordan Alvarez, while not 100%, will play in this series. Behind him, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz and Alex Bregman are all having relatively subpar seasons, although you can never count them out in October. Kyle Tucker has been incredible when on the field, but he’s still coming back from a shin fracture that cost him three months of the season.
Detroit’s plan of action will be to score by moving the line. They have hit the fewest home runs out of any playoff squad, and will rely on young outfielder Kerry Carpenter to continue leading the offense. He amassed a .932 OPS in the regular season, and will be backed up by Riley Greene and Matt Vierling.
I can’t pick against the Astros here, not at Minute Maid Park where all three games will be played.
Prediction: Houston over Detroit (2-1)
Royals (5) at Orioles (4)
Led by Bobby Witt Jr, the Royals will be the first team tasked with taking down the hungry Baltimore Orioles, who revamped their pitching staff over the offseason. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and franchise legend Salvador Perez have also been key contributors who have helped KC reach the playoffs for the first time since the city’s World Series-winning team in 2015.
Baltimore looks to unleash offseason addition Corbin Burnes against Kansas City in the opener, and he’ll be countered by Cole Ragans in what should be a classic pitcher’s duel. Zach Eflin, the Orioles’ big midseason addition and Dean Kremer will likely handle games two and three for the O’s, while Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha will go for KC if needed. The advantage probably lies with the Royals if the series goes to a Game 3, just because Kremer has looked shaky.
On the offensive side, shortstop Gunnar Henderson has been a top-5 hitter all season long for Baltimore. After him, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and rookie Colton Cowser will carry the load at the plate. The good news for the birds? They could be getting two hitters back from injury, including all-star 2B Jordan Westburg, for the playoffs.
Aside from Witt, Kansas City doesn’t match up with Baltimore on paper at the dish. Salvador Perez will have a tough time dealing with Burnes and Eflin, so it might be up to lefties Michael Massey and the aforementioned Pasquantino to do some timely damage in this series.
I think Baltimore figures things out in the Wild Card round this year.
Prediction: Baltimore over Kansas City (2-0)
Mets (6) at Brewers (3)
This is the Wild Card series I’m looking forward to the most. We have a revamped, young Brewers offense, MVP candidate Francisco Lindor’s postseason return, and more to watch in this one.
Let’s start with the home team. The Brewers have the youngest offense in the league, with rookies Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick starting in the lineup this postseason. Catcher William Contreras and 2B Brice Turang have been cornerstones as well. Unfortunately, we will not see Christian Yelich this postseason, as he is out for the year after undergoing season-ending back surgery. The Crew scored the sixth-most runs in the league this year, which is not usually in the pitching-driven franchise’s DNA.
Of course, the team still has Freddy Peralta leading the charge on the mound, as he will take the ball in Game 1 opposed by Luis Severino for the Mets. After Peralta, first-year manager Pat Murphy will likely use rookie Tobias Myers in Game 2 and then a combination of Bryse Wilson and Colin Rea to finish off the series. Milwaukee’s rotation is not as stacked as we have seen in previous years, where Burnes and Brandon Woodruff were expected to take the ball to start every series.
How can the Mets take advantage of the weaker rotation? Lindor clearly fits the bill, as he’s been their best hitter for most of the year. Another lefty in Brandon Nimmo has hit Peralta well, but the majority of the Mets offense over the past month has come from younger sources. Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna (Yes, Ronald’s brother), and Francisco Alvarez have made major strides this season. The problem for the Mets is their starters. Severino can go in Game 1, but behind him there are question marks. Will Jose Quintana be ready after pitching Monday? Sean Manaea and David Peterson are other options.
I think the Brewers win Game 1 comfortably behind Peralta, and squeeze out the series in either one of the next two games.
Prediction: Milwaukee over New York Mets (2-1)
Braves (5) at Padres (4)
One of the hottest teams in baseball over the past two months, the Padres, now get to face the most injury-riddled postseason team we may have ever seen. The Braves limped into the playoffs without stars Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley and Spencer Strider and will face a team that has gone 34-16 in their last 50 games.
San Diego is set on the mound with strikeout merchant Michael King ready to go Game 1, then fireballers Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease in a potential Game 3. Yu Darvish will be coming out of the bullpen, which should be one of the most stacked in the playoff field. Closer Robert Suarez has been the National League’s best this year, and since acquiring Jason Adam from the Rays, he has pitched to an ERA just above 1.
The Friars also boast a thunderous lineup, including Fernando Tatis Jr and Manny Machado. Breakout stars Jurickson Profar and Merrill have also been dominant at times. Simply put, this lineup can hang with the big boys in Los Angeles and Philadelphia.
To make matters worse, the Braves may not be able to pitch Chris Sale in this series after using him in game 162 to clinch their playoff spot. Atlanta’s projected starting rotation now looks like it will be Max Fried in Game 2 and Reynaldo Lopez in the deciding Game 3, but the starter to open the series is still undecided. It could very well be Ian Anderson, who has been very good in his limited postseason experience.
At the plate, the Braves’ usually explosive offense is suddenly questionable. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna can still provide displays of power, but it’s not the same up-and-down the order threat it could be fully healthy.
For that reason alone, I’ll give the edge to San Diego here.
Prediction: San Diego over Atlanta (2-0)
Want to argue with my picks? Have a question?
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