It’s been two weeks since we last checked on the bubble, and the margins in the AFC remain razor thin. In the meantime, a turbulent NFC West has created a whole new world of playoff implications. With Thanksgiving on the horizon, it’s time to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Welcome back to another edition of Bursting the NFL Bubble.
What is the bubble?
Before we get back into the bubble, let’s remind ourselves of what the bubble is. The bubble consists of the last two teams in and the first two out for each conference. Right now, this seems a tad arbitrary. But as the season winds down, it will be much harder for teams to jump two or three seeds into a playoff spot. Anyways, now that we know what the bubble is, let’s discuss who is on it.
AFC
#6: Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
The much-maligned Ravens defense put together a solid showing, but alas, it was the offense who blew it against Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson picked a bad time to post season-lows in completion percentage (48%) and QBR (59.6) as this loss has put the Ravens two games back of Pittsburgh. All is not lost in the division, as they still have a Week 16 matchup against the Steelers to avenge this loss. I mean, if Justin Tucker doesn’t miss two field goals and Lamar Jackson plays up to his normal standard, they would have beat Pittsburgh on the road. Alas, they must move on quickly as they have a very tough run into their bye week. They face the No.5 seeded Chargers, who are on a four game win streak, and then face the AFC North-leading Philadelphia Eagles. There is a decent chance that they could be 7-6 by the start of December which could put them in the throngs of teams like the Dolphins and Broncos. The next two weeks will be a true test of the Ravens resolve.
Status: Contenders (for now)
#7: Denver Broncos (6-5)
The Denver Broncos continue to persist as the gatekeepers of the playoff picture and they are doing quite well. They were one blocked field goal from ending the Chiefs undefeated streak and absolutely demolished the Falcons. Bo Nix was outstanding as he threw for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns. Get this man some weapons, and we may see a renaissance in Broncos Country. They have an opportunity to pass the Ravens for the No. 6 seed with two cupcake matchups against the Raiders and Browns. However, I believe making the playoffs will come down to if they can beat Indianapolis in Week 15. The Colts are the closest challenger, and beating them should set themselves up well as they try to survive an onslaught of the Bengals, Chargers and Chiefs.
Status: Pretender
#8: Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
The Colts remain unmoved in the playoff picture in spite of the most frustrating QB carousel I have ever seen. I mean don’t get me wrong, Anthony Richardson deserved to be benched for tapping out. But to say that 39 year old Joe Flacco gives you the best chance at the playoffs is flat out insanity. At the end of the day, they have a sophomore QB who has started TWENTY FOUR games between college and the NFL. He is going to need a bit more time to develop, why not do it now? Their decision to put him back in the starting lineup paid off as he put the team on HIS BACK. Richardson ran for two touchdowns and threw for another. He did fumble twice and the defense was getting gashed by Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams (what is this 2019?) but there’s still hope. The Colts get the equivalent of an automatic L by facing the Lions next week but they have a VERY easy schedule after that. Can they take advantage of it?
Status: Pretender
#9: Miami Dolphins (4-6)
The game of hot potato between the Bengals and Dolphins for the last spot in this column continues. The Dolphins are on a two game winning streak after an impressive win against the Rams and an expected win over the Raiders. The Dolphins’ offensive line neutralized Maxx Crosby (0 Sacks, TFL & QB hits) allowing Tua Tagovailoa to pick apart the Raiders. Jonnu Smith is building such a good rapport with Tua and it is opening this offense up for big plays. The defense still looks a bit suspect (Jordan Poyer is putrid) but they have more than enough offensive firepower to compensate. Every game counts for Miami now and with Houston, San Francisco and Green Bay left on the schedule, I’m not sure this late season surge will be enough.
Status: Contender (if they can get there)
NFC
#6: Green Bay Packers (7-3)
In most divisions, 7-3 would be enough to be in the division lead or at least a game behind. The NFC North is not most divisions. The Packers went 1-1 in back-to-back divisional matchups, but were a blocked field goal away from going 0-2. On a bright note, Christian Watson showed up with 150 yards after a season of pure disappointment. They still have a two-game advantage over the non playoff contenders so they have room to flounder. However, they must face the 49ers and Dolphins, both of whom are in survival mode. The Packers must match the playoff-level intensity that both teams will bring if they want to stay out of the danger zone.
Status: Contenders
#7: Washington Commanders (7-4)
Welcome to the bubble, Washington! Down 10-12 to the Eagles in the 4th, head coach Dan Quinn made the puzzling decision to not kick a field goal on the Philly 26 and go for it on 4th and 2. That choice backfired when QB Jayden Daniels bobbled the snap and was tackled for no gain. The Eagles would go on a 14-8 run to end the game and overtake the division. Now, the Commanders must pick up the pieces and find a way forward. Luckily, they play the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys and the Will Levis-led Titans. Easy peasy. I am interested to see how this offense performs, as they seem to have come back to earth a little. They put up 30+ points in five straight games but haven’t put up 30 since Week 7. Are they beginning to stall? As a Jayden Daniels enjoyer, I hope not.
Status: Sneaky contenders
#8: LA Rams (5-5)
It’s a tale of two seasons for the Rams. They once were 1-4 but have gone a monstrous run to get back to .500. It’s a wonder what a defense full of rookie breakouts and getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back will do for a team. Jared Verse and Braden Fiske lead all rookies in sacks and rookie S Kamren Kinchens has won NFC Defensive Player of the Week twice this season. This team is set up well for long term success, but with Stafford aging, they need to make the most of their window. They are one back of the division but must face the 49ers, Bills and Eagles over the course of the next week. The Rams need to lock in and prove that they are among the top class of the NFL or else they will be doomed to mediocrity.
Status: Pretenders (with a chance to prove me wrong)
#9: Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
Now what did I say about San Francisco last time?
“The NFC West is anybody’s for the taking. San Francisco has the best defense in the division by EPA, PPG, and DVOA. They also have the best offense in the division by the same measures. They just need to get the job done.”
They, in fact, did not.
The Seattle Seahawks took advantage of an injury-riddled San Francisco and ended a 6-game losing skid to the Red and Gold. Geno Smith played okay but stepped up when it counted. He contributed 83 total yards on Seattle’s game winning drive, including a 13 yard scamper for six to ice the game. The vibes are good in Seattle, and they actually have a chance to take the lead in the division if they beat Arizona this Sunday. They would need help from a fellow bird team in the Eagles, but there is a very solid chance that this team is on top of the West.
Status: Pretenders (but let’s enjoy this, man.)