Super Bowl LIX is in the books after the Philadelphia Eagles routed the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22, preventing the first three-peat in the Super Bowl era. Now that the confetti has been swept off the turf of Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, 32 fan bases turn their attention to the offseason. Seven of those are hopeful that a new coach at the helm will turn things around.
Hitting on a head coaching hire is easier said than done; on average, NFL coaches only last about three years. Look at the 2022 cycle; of the nine coaches that were hired, just three will make it to their fourth season in charge.
I’ve done this exercise the past few years and have been relatively good at ranking the new batch of hires. With that being said, I’m not perfect, and am no better than the people who actually make these decisions. In my 2024 rankings, I had Jim Harbaugh, fresh off a national championship, as my top hire. That take has aged well so far, with the Chargers improving to 11-6 and making the playoffs after a disastrous 2023 season.
On the other end of that list was Dan Quinn, who comfortably exceeded my expectations in year one with Washington. Quinn only led the Commanders to a 12-5 record, their best mark since 1991. They snapped a 19-year playoff win drought and reached the NFC Championship game as icing on the cake.
Why do I bring this up? For one, I want to revisit my accurate and woefully inaccurate takes from last February. I also want to remind any fan whose coach is towards the bottom of the list that my opinions aren’t the end all be all. Remember, if my take benefits your team, I’m a genius, but if it doesn’t, I’m just some random guy that didn’t think Dan Quinn would work in Washington.
By and large I think most of the hires this cycle were solid. However, history has shown that less than half of these will pan out.
1. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears – Johnson was widely viewed as the premier candidate in this coaching cycle after overseeing the Lions’ potent offense the past three seasons. Credit to Chicago for not trying to outthink itself and go with the best option. Sometimes the obvious choice is the right one, and I feel that applies here.
Detroit had the top scoring offense in football, averaging over 33 points per game with a good, albeit physically limited, quarterback in Jared Goff. I’m fascinated to see what Johnson does with Caleb Williams, who has an upside rivaling any QB.
The Bears have talented weapons, they just need to address the offensive line in the draft and free agency. Bringing Dennis Allen on as defensive coordinator should ensure that side of the ball remains capable.
Assuming Chicago has some semblance of an offensive line, it has a real chance to do what the Commanders did this season and the Texans did in 2023. This hire also gets bonus points for poaching a top assistant from a division rival.
2. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots – For the second year in a row, the Patriots find themselves on this list. Replacing Bill Belichick was never an easy feat; Jerod Mayo’s lone season as head coach in Foxborough was a rough one. New England brought in a former player from the glory days in Mike Vrabel to command its rebuild.
Vrabel was always going to get another gig after a questionable decision by the Titans to part ways with him. This feels like the safest hire of the bunch, as Vrabel reached an AFC Championship and earned the top seed in the AFC in separate seasons. It’s fair to say he overachieved during his stint in Nashville.
Connecting with players is a vital aspect of being a head coach in this league. Vrabel has drawn a lot of comparisons to Dan Campbell and said comparisons make sense. The Pats’ have over $123 million in cap space, far and away the most in the league.
Like Chicago, New England’s future is contingent on the development of its top-five pick at quarterback. Josh McDaniels is back as the Patriots offensive coordinator for the third time. McDaniels had a respectable season with rookie Mac Jones that resulted in the team’s only playoff appearance post-Tom Brady. Drake Maye has a much higher upside than Jones, so I expect there to be a leap in production in year two.
While Buffalo controls the AFC East, New England has the best long term prospects of being a threat.
3. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars – It wasn’t long ago that Jacksonville was in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC just one year following an exhilarating comeback win over the Chargers in the Wild Card. Things in Duval County went south after the Jaguars imploded to miss the playoffs in 2023 before falling to 4-13 in 2024.
With former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence’s massive contract getting ready to kick in, the Jags’ need to get their money’s worth. Liam Coen should help the chances of that happening, as recent history has shown pairing a young offensive coach with a quarterback usually leads to improvement.
Baker Mayfield had a career year under Coen despite Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing substantial time due to injury. Kentucky also won 10 games in 2021 when Coen was the offensive coordinator.
I’m not sure if Lawrence will ever live up to the hype he had coming out of Clemson. The talent is there, but turnovers continue to plague the former national champion signal caller. Lawrence does have some gunslinger qualities that Mayfield has, so Coen should be an ideal fit.
4. Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders – This hire was a bit out of left field, but Carroll’s resume speaks for itself. The 2025 AFC West has to be the most stacked coaching division when it comes to track record. The four head coaches in the division have combined for five Super Bowl wins, 10 Super Bowl appearances, and three national championships.
The biggest question is age for Carroll, who will turn 74 in September. While I think it’s fair to say Carroll won’t have a particularly long tenure, I don’t doubt Carroll’s ability while he is there. The Raiders have the second most cap space in the NFL, sitting on over $95 million.
I expect Carroll to provide a much-needed culture change to the Raiders and at least make the franchise somewhat respectable. The most pressing question in Las Vegas is the quarterback position. The Silver and Black currently have the seventh overall pick, meaning they probably won’t get Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders barring a trade up. There are options in free agency, and with plenty of cap space to play with, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders bring on a veteran. For all we know, we could get a reunion with Russell Wilson in Vegas.
5. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets – The Jets are at a crossroads as a franchise. The Aaron Rodgers experiment hasn’t worked out and they are tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the longest active playoff drought in the big four North American sports leagues.
Like its divisional foe New England, New York brought in a former player as its next coach. Aaron Glenn was a three-time Pro Bowler at cornerback for the Jets and has spent the last four seasons as the Lions defensive coordinator.
Usually I’m not a huge fan of replacing a defensive coach with another one. However, with Dan Quinn’s success last year and the Jets’ defense regressing after firing Robert Saleh, this hire makes sense.
I believe Glenn can be a successful head coach, but again this is the Jets. The defense should be a stout unit and there are some nice pieces on offense. There is the elephant in the room which is the QB situation now that the Jets have informed Rodgers that they will be going in a different direction at the position.
If New York can finally get quarterback right, then Glenn has a real chance to turn things around. This is a solid hire. I just don’t trust ownership to get everything else right.
6. Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints – While the Eagles head back to Philly and prepare to celebrate their second Super Bowl triumph in eight years, the team’s offensive coordinator is staying in the city where they just hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Kellen Moore has been mentioned for several coaching vacancies in recent years and he gets his first chance in New Orleans. Like many of these hires, Moore is a bit of an unknown considering he’s never been a head coach. While this move ranks just sixth out of seven, I still like the move. As I said earlier, most of these hires look good on paper, it’s just a matter of ranking them.
The Boise State legend did help Jalen Hurts and the offense as a whole bounce back after its slump during the second half of 2023. My question is: How much of Philadelphia’s success was Moore, and how much was the loaded personnel?
The Saints are in a difficult predicament, as they are currently over $51 million over the cap which is the worst in football. The team is likely stuck with Derek Carr under center for another season and the roster is old and expensive.
7. Brian Schottenheimer – This is the one hire that just didn’t make sense to me. Granted, I said the same about Dan Quinn a year ago so Cowboys fans shouldn’t be too worried; at least when it comes to my predictions. Schottenheimer has bounced around as an offensive coordinator with the Jets, Rams, Seahawks, and most recently the Cowboys.
This hire has a chance of working out, but the Saints need to be patient as the franchise goes under a long-overdue rebuild.
The whole hiring process was a mess for Dallas after they denied the Bears’ request to interview Mike McCarthy just to part ways with him later. Schottenheimer doesn’t have a great track record as a coordinator like some of the names above him. If Dak Prescott is healthy I’m sure they’ll win a decent amount of games and may even make the playoffs. But this move doesn’t feel like it’s changing anything for a franchise that last made the conference championship game before Michael Jordan started his second three-peat.
If you know a Dallas sports fan, be supportive of them. Between the Cowboys and a certain trade in the world of basketball that shall not be named, it’s been a rough several months.
Maybe Schottenheimer hits, maybe I’m completely wrong, but Dallas just feels so complacent. There’s always a lot of talk about the Cowboys making splash moves, but it just hasn’t happened in a long time. The Eagles just won a Super Bowl, the Commanders just reached the NFC Championship and have a young superstar QB in Jayden Daniels, and even the Giants are in a position to draft a top college QB and have some cap space to work with. It’s not that I expect the Cowboys to be terrible, I just don’t see the vision of this franchise.