The Summit League tournament is starting Wednesday, and with it, we could be witnessing history. Since 2012, only three teams have won the league’s championship: North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and Oral Roberts. This season sees two new teams atop the standings. Omaha enters Sioux Falls as the No. 1 seed, searching for its first title since joining the conference in 2012. Behind them, St. Thomas rests as the No. 2 seed, ineligible for the NCAA Tournament but looking for its first conference championship as a Division I school.
All betting lines courtesy of DraftKings.
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St. Thomas
Despite being the No. 1 seed, Omaha isn’t viewed as a favorite for the championship; instead, three other teams have better odds.. One of those teams is the aforementioned St. Thomas Tommies (+225). This is the last season they’ll be ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to the NCAA transition rules after moving from Division III to Division I four years ago. They lead the Summit League in scoring margin thanks to an offense that has managed 83.5 points per game.
The Tommies have a strong group of scorers with almost five players averaging double-digits per game. Miles Barnstable leads the squad averaging just shy of 15 points per game. One of the Tommies’ biggest weaknesses lies in rebounding, but they more than make up for that with great shooting from beyond the arc. Five players for the Tommies have taken at least 90 threes this season and four of them are shooting over 41%.
South Dakota State
Behind the Tommies are the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (+300). The Jackrabbits ended the season on a sour note, but are the reigning Summit League champions and have won five of the previous nine titles. SDSU was blown out in its regular season finale against Denver after losing starting point guard Owen Larson to a torn ACL.
The Jacks took the No. 3 seed in the tournament and are led by superstar center Oscar Cluff, who averages over 17 points and 12 rebounds per game. Cluff is a double-double machine, but notably leads the second-best defense in the Summit League, behind only Kansas City. The senior is surrounded by a squad of solid shooters, including guard Joe Sayler who adds 13 points per game. One other potential weakness to look for is turnovers, as SDSU gives the ball up more than anyone else in the Summit League.
North Dakota State
The final favorite in the Summit League is the North Dakota State Bison (+260). Earning the No. 4 seed in the tournament, the Bison have a tough road ahead, starting with their game against No. 5 South Dakota. NDSU made the Summit League Championship five straight years prior to last season’s exit in the quarterfinals. The Bison will be looking for a return this season and have a good shot to do so with their pair of elite scorers. Forward Jackson Moni is a true three-level scorer and leads the conference in points per game at 20.6, and he’s complemented by guard Jacari White. Moni is shooting over 50% from the field and 40% from three-point land while White adds over 17 a game, shooting a hair under 40% from beyond the arc. Guard Masen Miller also supplements the scoring as one of the conference’s premiere shooters, hitting over 45% of his shots from downtown on six attempts per game. The Bison struggle to force mistakes, though, ranking last place in the conference in steals and turnovers forced.
Dark Horses: Omaha
While it may sound crazy to put the No. 1 seed as a dark horse, that’s exactly how this season has gone for the Omaha Mavericks (+450). It has been a dramatic turnaround for the Mavericks, which entered the season tied with Denver for worst odds of winning the Summit League. While they have won 13 of their 16 games in Summit League play, they haven’t done so convincingly. Even with the best record in the league, Omaha still managed the fourth-worst scoring margin and is right in the middle of almost every statistical category. One of the biggest reasons for success is finishing close games, with 11 of their 17 D1 wins coming by 10 points or less. The Mavericks have forward Marquel Sutton, who paces the team in scoring with almost 19 a game. Sutton is also one of the better rebounders in the conference, adding 7.5 boards per night.
Potential Cinderellas: South Dakota and Kansas City
After Omaha, there’s a big drop-off in terms of competition, but the South Dakota Coyotes (+2200) and Kansas City Roos (+4000) have a chance to shake things up. The Coyotes earned the No. 5 seed in the bracket and led the conference in scoring. That offense is led by senior Chase Forte, who cements the team’s focus on attacking the rim. Surprisingly, the Coyotes sit dead-last in three point percentage, and also allow more points than anyone else in the league.
After ending the year 4-12 in the Summit League, the Roos claimed the No. 8 seed and have a long road to the big game. Despite the record, 10 of their 12 losses in league play were by single digits, and the Roos have the best defense in the conference. They’ve struggled with offensive efficiency, especially with guard Jayson Petty who is taking the second-most shots.
Longshots: North Dakota, Denver and Oral Roberts
The remaining three teams are all longshots to take home the league championship, but the games are played for a reason. March is madness. The North Dakota Fighting Hawks (+3500) enter the bracket as the No. 6 seed, the Denver Pioneers (+5500) enter as the No. 7 seed and the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (+20000) enter as the No. 9 seed. North Dakota is one of the better rebounding teams in the league and are led in scoring by Treysen Eaglestaff, but really struggle defensively. The Pioneers have the worst scoring margin and nearly the lowest-scoring offense in the Summit League, and will face Kansas City on the opening day of the tournament. The Golden Eagles have the second-leading scorer in the Summit League in Isaac McBride and have been one of the better teams at shooting and defending three-pointers.
Tournament Prediction
This may be the most wide-open the Summit League tournament has ever been, and it’s really anyone’s game. As for the first round, don’t be shocked if No. 8 Kansas City manages to upset No. 1 Omaha, and there’s a good chance No. 6 North Dakota topples No. 3 South Dakota State as well. It’s tough to imagine No. 4 North Dakota State or No. 2 St. Thomas faltering in the quarterfinals, in fact, look for them to make the championship game. While I’ve got the Tommies taking the crown due to their incredible shooting, NDSU would make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.