After a historic 2024 season that saw a record six Mountain West teams reach the NCAA Tournament, the Mountain West in 2025 has one surefire NCAA Tournament team and four others squarely on the bubble. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas; but one team gets to take home the coveted conference title and NCAA Tournament bid with them. Who will it be? Let’s find out!
The Favorite
New Mexico
New Mexico’s run to win the 2023-24 Mountain West title as the No. 6 seed set the stage for the Lobos to truly take the league by storm in 2024-25. Despite graduating top scorer Jaelen House, losing Texas Tech’s Big 12 Player of the Year and potential All-American JT Toppin, losing Temple’s 22 PPG scorer Jamal Mashburn and flubbing the commitment of Wisconsin’s potential All-American and Big Ten Player of the Year John Tonje, New Mexico has only gotten better. Through all the instability in the transfer portal, New Mexico returned guard Donovan Dent, who has emerged as the Mountain West’s best. Dent is the conference’s only 20+ PPG scorer, and his 6.5 assists per game is good for second in the conference. Nelly Junior Joseph also returned from last year’s squad, and is the conference’s only player averaging a double-double (13.8 PPG, 11.1 RPG). In an era of college basketball where the transfer portal is king, New Mexico’s top four scorers are all returners, and the Lobos are sure to return to the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in Las Vegas. Very few coaching jobs stack up with what Richard Pitino has done with the Lobos this season.
Hard To Bet Against Them
San Diego State
Seven consecutive title game appearances, seven titles and 16 title game appearances in 25 years. San Diego State is the model program in the Mountain West, and while maybe not as strong this year as in years past, you can’t count out the Aztecs. You can always count on San Diego State to defend well, and this year’s Aztecs are once again the conference’s best defensive team. Additionally, the Aztecs are experienced, particularly in March. Top scorer Nick Boyd (13.2 PPG) started 37 games for Florida Atlantic’s 2022-23 Final Four team, and second leading scorer Miles Byrd (12.8 PPG) returned after playing 34 games for San Diego State’s Sweet 16 squad last season. The Aztecs come to Las Vegas needing a couple wins, if not the conference title to breathe easily on Selection Sunday, but it’s much easier said than done to bet against Brian Dutcher’s team.
Right There
Colorado State
Scorched Earth is the only way to describe Colorado State right now. The Rams wrapped up the regular season winners of seven straight, including a 27-point thumping of Utah State at home and a massive road win at Boise State. Colorado State’s win streak propelled them to the conference’s No. 2 seed, and right back on to the NCAA Tournament bubble. If not for New Mexico’s Donovan Dent, Nique Clifford would be running away with Mountain West Player of the Year. Clifford leads the Rams in points (18.4 PPG), rebounds (9.7 RPG), assists (4.4 APG) and steals (1.2 SPG), and is a matchup nightmare as a 6’6 guard who is elite at all three levels. March isn’t always about what team is best, but rather which team is playing its best, and nobody in the Mountain West is playing better than Colorado State right now. The Rams may have dug themselves too deep of a hole early on to make the NCAA Tournament with an at-large bid, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them claim the automatic qualifier by winning the conference tournament with how well they’ve been playing lately.
Utah State
After losing head coach Danny Sprinkle and 17.7 PPG scorer Great Osobor to Washington last offseason, expectations rightfully sunk for Utah State in 2024-25. The Aggies were picked sixth in the preseason poll, but new head coach Jerrod Calhoun kept everything on the rails and guided Utah State to a third place regular season finish. Despite losing Osobor, Utah State returned Costa Rican guard Ian Martinez (16.9 PPG) and guard Mason Falslev (14.7 PPG) to lead the conference’s most efficient offense. The blueprint hasn’t changed all that much for Utah State despite being on its fourth head coach in five years. The offense makes up for a lackluster defense, but on bad shooting nights, things can get ugly. The Aggies suffered defeats of 19 points, 17 points and 27 points respectively against New Mexico, Boise State and Colorado State, and can’t afford a similar fate in Las Vegas if they hope to return to the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.
Boise State
The Mountain West preseason favorite Broncos haven’t lived up to the hype, but still find themselves on the brink of postseason play regardless. Preseason conference player of the year Tyson Degenhart is still excellent, his 17.8 PPG ranks third in the conference, but he can only do so much. Boise State sacrifices shooting for size, the Broncos’ 31.5% three-point percentage ranks ahead of only Fresno State in the conference, and this formula proves to give Boise State a high floor, but a low ceiling. Boise State went 12-0 against the Mountain West’s bottom six teams, but just 2-6 against the conference’s top four. The Broncos will have to find a couple marquee wins to play themselves into the NCAA Tournament field, but it doesn’t get much more difficult than an opening quarterfinal matchup with San Diego State, followed by a potential semifinal matchup with New Mexico.
Dark Horse
UNLV
It’s hard not to label UNLV as a dark horse every year. The Rebels once again host the conference tournament and have picked off a couple of the conference’s top contenders, including a season sweep of San Diego State. Six of the Rebels’ nine conference losses came by single digit margins, who knows if they’ll get a few more bounces in their favor now playing with house money. Las Vegas native and leading scorer Dedan Thomas Jr. (15.6 PPG) has been sidelined since Feb. 15, but UNLV has managed a 4-1 record in his absence, and hope for his return for the conference tournament.
Cinderellas
Nevada
Can the conference’s best scoring duo make some magic happen? Nevada is the only team in the Mountain West to have two scorers rank top eight in the conference, with forward Nick Davidson (15.7 PPG) and guard Kobe Sanders (15.6 PPG) leading the way. However, this comes at the cost of depth, and the already thin Wolf Pack have been without starter Tre Coleman since Valentine’s Day. It’ll be an uphill battle, but Nevada has the high-end talent necessary to make a run and live up to its preseason billing as the conference’s third best team.
San Jose State
The Spartans are likely a little better than their record says. After a 5-7 start in conference play, San Jose State lost six of its last eight to finish 7-13. The sudden change? An injury to second leading scorer and UCLA transfer Will McClendon (12.0 PPG). The Spartans also saw injuries to starter Donovan Yap (9.9 PPG) and top rebounder Robert Vaihola (7.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG) in that time, but Yap and Vaihola are healthy for the conference tournament. If San Jose State can get McClendon back before a potential second round matchup with New Mexico, the Spartans could be dangerous – at full strength they handed the Lobos their first conference loss back on Jan. 14.
Don’t Bet On It
Wyoming
The Cowboys haven’t beaten a team outside the bottom two of the conference since January 21. The epitome of a one-man show, Wyoming’s Obi Agbim is conference’s third-leading scorer at 17.8 PPG, and best three point shooter at 44.4%. Agbim is the only Cowboy averaging double figures, so Wyoming will only go as far as Agbim can take it.
Fresno State
Not one, not two, but three 10+ PPG scorers have left the Bulldogs program midseason, and two (Jalen Weaver and Mykell Robinson) are being investigated for gambling on their own games. Still, the worst representation of Fresno State basketball right now is alum Paul George stealing $211 million from the Philadelphia 76ers.
Air Force
The Falcons somehow finished below Fresno State and didn’t win a game away from home all year. Thank you for your service, but let’s leave basketball to everyone else.
Tournament Prediction
First Round
No. 8 San Jose State over No. 9 Wyoming
No. 7 Nevada over No. 10 Fresno State
No. 6 UNLV over No. 11 Air Force
Quarterfinals
No. 1 New Mexico over No. 8 San Jose State
No. 4 San Diego State over No. 5 Boise State
No. 2 Colorado State over No. 7 Nevada
No. 6 UNLV over No. 3 Utah State
Semifinals
No. 1 New Mexico over No. 4 San Diego State
No. 2 Colorado State over No. 6 UNLV
Championship
No. 1 New Mexico over No. 2 Colorado State