Primetime swings to the west coast at Levi’s Stadium as the Atlanta Falcons visit the San Francisco 49ers, a matchup centered on two headliners at running back: Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey. Atlanta (3–2) is trying to stack momentum after an upset against the Buffalo Bills at home. San Francisco (4–2) is recalibrating with Mac Jones starting after Brock Purdy was ruled out and George Kittle back from IR.
Recap
Atlanta is coming off its loudest win of the season, a 24–14 takedown of Buffalo that doubled as a Bijan showcase. Robinson ripped off 170 rushing yards, including an 81-yard touchdown that flipped the game on its head. Through five weeks he’s sitting among the league leaders in production, with 822 scrimmage yards and an average of 96.8 rushing yards per game. Many consider him to be the league’s best running back so far this season. Outside of Robinson, the defense has been a pleasant surprise for the Falcons. Atlanta sits first in the league in total defense at about 253 yards allowed per game and first against the pass at roughly 135 yards a night, while holding opponents to around 14.5 first downs per game, also best in the NFL. The run defense is more middle-of-the-pack at roughly 109 yards per game, but the defense has proved sustainable.
San Francisco has hit the injury speed bumps but still plays a disciplined brand of ball. With Mac Jones at the helm of Kyle Shanahan’s offense, Kittle returning as the main target across the middle, and Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers possess a versatile attack. Both Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are out, stripping San Francisco of its two best defensive playmakers and leaders. Without Warner in the middle, the run fits and communication across the second level have suffered, while Bosa’s absence has weakened a pass rush that usually defines this team.
Keys to the Game
Bijan vs. CMC
Both teams will gameplan around their star running backs, in the run and pass game. Bijan’s explosive runs can steal possessions and shorten the night for Jones and company, while McCaffrey’s consistency can keep Atlanta’s defense on the field and grind out long, tiring possessions. If Bijan is hovering near his season pace in rushing (96.8 YPG) and chunking explosives like last week, Atlanta’s tempo advantage grows.
Jones to Kittle Connection
Kittle’s presence helps the quick game, play action, and third down answers—exactly what a fill in starter needs. If Jones lives in rhythm throws to Kittle and CMC, the Niners can stay on schedule and keep penalties and sacks from defining drives.
Atlanta’s Balance
Michael Penix Jr. doesn’t need to do it all; he just needs to play clean football. Screens, RPOs, and high percentage throws that punish stacked boxes will decide whether the Falcons can stay into the fourth quarter.
Prediction/Outlook
This should be a close game, and could be decided by which defense holds up against the opponent’s dynamic running back. With Mac Jones managing and Kittle back, the 49ers have answers outside of CMC, but Atlanta’s offense has found a groove that starts with No. 7 and the defensive side has more than held their own. Falcons scrape it out late.
Prediction: Falcons 24, 49ers 20.