By Justin Parmer
Ah, the final non-conference week. A week of blowouts, laughing at those who dropped the ball against FCS opponents and the demise of two conferences. Enough talking, let’s take a look at who’s in, who’s out and who’s clinging on for dear life in the college football playoff eliminator.
Regular Season Elimination Method
Group-of-five Method (and any independent not named Notre Dame)
Suffering a single loss on the season
Power-five Method (and Notre Dame)
Losing two games
Losing to a group-of-five school
Losing to an FCS school or lower
Losing a game by 30 or more points.
Teams remaining safe (27)
AAC (1)
Navy
ACC (3)
Clemson, Virginia, Wake Forest
Big Ten (7)
Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (6)
Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU
PAC Twelve (4)
Arizona State, California, Utah, Washington State
SEC (5)
Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida
Independents (1)
Notre Dame
On the brink of elimination (17)
Arkansas (2-1)
You got away with one, Razorbacks. Arkansas for much of the matchup was outplayed by Colorado State, especially in the second and third quarters. The defense in particular did not do well against the Mountain West offense. The Razorbacks need to clean this next week against San Jose state. Otherwise the rest of the SEC will be torching your defense with little to no effort.
Boston College (2-1)
Does losing to Kansas by 24 get a team automatically eliminated? No … well, it should. But the eliminator is not going to stray from the rules set up back in August. To put it simply, Boston College should feel flat out embarrassed for allowing Kansas to score 27 points on home turf uncontested. The eliminator has never seen such horrendous defense against a team like Kansas.
What confuses the eliminator, however, is that the Eagles beat Virginia Tech. How does one beat the Hookies and lose to freaking Kansas with a healthy squad? Only on college football. Eagles fans enjoy your free win to Rutgers and then we’ll see how good you really are.
Iowa State (1-1)
That one had to hurt Cyclone fans. Down by only one point with over two minutes left, getting the ball back … only to have your players run into each other and muff the punt. The Hawkeyes walk away with the pride of Iowa, with the Cyclones having more questions than answers. The biggest question is whether or not this team is actually good; especially after barely escaping Northern Iowa week one. The good news: the Cyclones have been the ultimate wildcard of the past half-decade and could run the table till their second bye. The bad: it’s the Big 12 and the Cyclones are the ultimate wildcard and are known for dropping random games. The eliminator will just scratch its head in the corner.
Kentucky (2-1)
There is nothing the eliminator can say that can amplify the pain that Wildcat fans are experiencing right now. The eliminator will kindly refer those who have been sleeping under a rock to look up the missed field goal Kentucky committed in the final minute of play.
The Wildcats will be sticking on the bubble for a while, however. With Mississippi State, South Carolina and Arkansas all coming up, the eliminator sees Kentucky staying alive for a month.
Louisville (2-1)
Congratulations Louisville. You were the only team in the state of Kentucky to win this week. Your reward for beating up Western Kentucky is a date with Florida State next weekend in Tallahassee. If that doesn’t kill you, Boston College might. Time to see what the Cardinals are really made of.
Mississippi State (2-1)
This was honestly one of best games of the college football season so far. All three sides of the ball played a spectacular game where the laws of gravity were defied briefly and both teams got into the trenches for what was a very sloppy game. In the end, it was Kansas State that ran away with the final victory and thus remained undefeated in their quest for a CFP playoff berth.
As for Mississippi State however, the road only gets tougher. With Kentucky visiting next week and Auburn the following, the eliminator might not be seeing Mississippi State on its list for too much longer.
Michigan State (2-1)
One man too many may have cost you the chance to tie the game up MSU fans, but that wasn’t the only thing that drove a spear into the Spartan’s heart. The Sun Devils and the Spartans both imitated the battle of Thermopylae: stopping the other’s offense with little to no casualties. The only problem for the Spartans was the Devils found the other road and managed to score. The Spartans then proceeded to march down the field, only to have an extra man on the field at the worst possible time and miss the field goal a play later. Seriously Michigan State, all of that offense and you couldn’t score more than seven points?
There isn’t much good news that the eliminator can give MSU either. With a trip to the lake front next week in Evanston and the Michigan State’ notorious reputation of playing 4th fiddle in the Big 10 East, the future for the Spartans is looking grim. If they are not careful, the Spartans might even go 6-6. Seats may be getting warmer in East Lansing if that’s the case.
Nebraska (2-1)
You beat Northern Illinois. What, do you want, a top 25 ranking? Fine, just take your non-conference beatdown and we’ll see you in a week when you beat old man Lovie. Don’t worry, the eliminator will get around to him later.
North Carolina (2-1)
Too little, too late UNC. Although to be fair, UNC should have been within the eliminator’s grasp two weeks ago when they pulled off the upset in Charlotte. And in Chapel Hill. You know what, UNC escaped the grim reaper twice, at some point they had to pay up. It’s coming too. UNC has a trap game coming against the notorious Appalachian State, and a visit from Clemson after that. Either way, Mack and crew has outlived the eliminators expectations. Who knows maybe they can surprise us all yet again
North Carolina State (2-1)
The eliminator should have known that the Wolfpack would struggle against West Virginia. NC State’s biggest non-conference matchup was a gunslinging throwdown between two really good offenses. The game came down to the final quarter with the NC State offense finally giving out. Not a good sign for the Wolfpack who will have to go through the ACC Atlantic the rest of the way post Ball State.
Northwestern (1-1)
Nothing to see here, just Northwestern winning a game they should win. Come along now everyone, we’ll check back in with this team after the Michigan State game anyways.
Oregon (2-1)
Nope folks, we’re not stopping here either. Oregon took care of business against Montana. We’ll check back in with them next week when they finish playing Stanford. Move along.
Texas (2-1)
You’ll see yet another team playing a cupcake this weekend in a game over by halftime. How many more of these do we have?
Texas A&M (2-1)
Oh look, another team beating the daylights against a school we’ve never heard of. What a shock; Texas A&M beat them by 59. Hooray for parity in the NCAA. Although the Auburn game looks juicy next week, we’ll just move along.
Texas Tech (2-1)
Oh boy another … wait, this was actually a competitive game between two struggling teams making a bowl game this season. Better than playing an FCS school in the eliminator’s opinion. The biggest problem for the Red Raider’s was the health of Alan Bowman. Without him the Texas Tech’s offense fell apart and Arizona was able to drive the Red Raiders out of Arizona.
The Red Raiders will be safe for another week due to a week four bye, but a date with the Sooners will more than likely be the final straw for any hopes the Tortilla loving Red Raider’s fans may have. Look on the bright side Texas Tech, basketball’s only a few months away,
Virginia Tech (2-1)
Oh look, yet another power five school beating up on … wait, this one was close? Virginia Tech, should the eliminator be preparing your casket? How do you almost lose to Furman? It won’t matter anyways. A win’s a win, and the Hookies will head into their conference play rested and coming off the bye. Whether or not they survive after that is to be determined.
Washington (2-1)
How do we end our tour of teams hanging out on the bubble with one loss? You guessed it, another non-Power-five nuclear blowout. This one however comes against a team who actually pulled off two solid upsets against power five opponents in the span of the first three weeks. Too bad Hawaii had to play a road game eventually as Washington quickly ran up the score and sent the Rainbow Warriors packing before halftime.
Washington will get another one of these teams next week when they play an independent BYU. Then again, BYU did just beat USC. The Huskies might need to take the Cougars a bit more seriously than initially anticipated.
Eliminated (8)
Illinois
Method of elimination: Loss to a non-power-five school
You payed one million dollars to lose to Eastern Michigan at home. One million to Eastern Michigan! You disgust the eliminator, Illinois. You bought yourself one of the weakest non-conference schedule in college football and you still can’t get past week 3. Get back into the basement Illinois. The eliminator will laugh as you get pounced by the rest of the Big Ten. Poor Lovie Smith. He doesn’t deserve this fate.
Maryland
Method of elimination: Loss to a non-power-five school
Maryland overlooked Temple, didn’t they? The Terrapins were looking forward to a week 4 bye. Some nice rest, relaxation before hitting the gauntlet known as the Big Ten East. Then the Owls happened. By the time Maryland figured out they needed to treat Temple seriously, it was too little, too late.
Although a three-point loss to Temple could be brushed off by the committee if the Terrapins go 12-1, for the sake of consistency, the eliminator has to do its duty and terminate Maryland from playoff contention.
Indiana
Method of elimination: Blowout
It was going to come eventually Indiana. Play all of the FCS schools you want, but the inevitable Big Ten East beat down tolled for thee. Thank you for sacrificing yourself to the Ohio State evil empire. We will see you next season Hosiers.
Pittsburgh
Method of elimination: Two losses
Let’s get this over with. Penn State gave you a chance to steal a victory and you still couldn’t come away with it. With their second loss on the year, the Panthers are now officially eliminated from playoff contention. Now watch Pittsburgh win the coastal division just because.
Colorado
Method of elimination: Loss to a non-power-five school
Colorado was riding sky high after last week. An “upset” win against Nebraska, a 2-0 start, Boulder was riding in sky high heading into a week 3 matchup against Air Force. Only for Air Force to suffocate the remaining air out of Colorado. A 30-24 loss to the Falcons was more than enough to eliminate the Buffalos from playoff contention, and maybe even a shot at a bowl game.
South Carolina
Method of elimination: Two losses
South Carolina held out for as long as they could. Unfortunately for South Carolina, with a backup quarterback starting, the referees getting in the way and the Gamecocks playing Alabama only equates disaster. South Carolina just didn’t have enough firepower to stop their SEC overlords. Gamecock fans, this is only the beginning of your woes this season. The eliminator sympathizes with you for your brutal schedule.
USC
Method of elimination: Loss to a non-power-five school
BYU sprang a trap a trap in Utah. Despite USC playing their best game of the season, it was not enough to beat a surprisingly good BYU team. Although the eliminator never specified that a loss to an independent school would be enough to eliminate a Power-five team, BYU is very similar enough to a Mountain West school to warrant USC’s demise.
Now, could USC in theory make it back into the playoff talk? Yes, in theory, the loss at BYU can be forgivable in the eyes of the playoff committee. Will USC make it to the Pac 12 championship game undefeated, and force the committee to make that decision? The eliminator won’t be losing sleep over that hypothetical scenario.
Stanford
Method of elimination: Loss to a non-power-five school
If the Trojans didn’t finish the Trees, the Knights certainly did. In one of the most pathetic displays done all week by the power five, Stanford got smacked by UCF and never had a chance to get back up on their feet. Stanford is officially done, and UCF fans playoff hopes live on … for now. Man, what a bad week for the Pac 12.
Total number of teams eliminated: 86
Elimination games
The following games are elimination games, because no matter who wins, one team will meet a criteria that will deem them unworthy of entering the college football playoffs. Here are the elimination games for week two. All times are eastern standard time.
9/21 Kentucky vs Mississippi State
9/21 Michigan State vs Northwestern (12:00 PM)
Previously Eliminated
Week 2:
Cincinnati (AAC)
Tulane (AAC)
Miami (ACC)
Syracuse (ACC)
Rutgers (Big Ten)
Kansas (Big 12)
Oregon State (Big 12)
West Virginia (Big 12)
Northern Illinois (MAC)
Western Michigan (MAC)
Vanderbilt (SEC)
Week 1:
Houston (AAC)
Duke (ACC)
Florida State (ACC)
Georgia Tech (ACC)
Purdue (Big 10)
FAU (Conference USA)
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA)
Kent State (MAC)
Miami (OH) (MAC)
Mississippi (SEC)
Tennessee (SEC)
UCLA (Pac 12)
Week zero:
Arizona (Pac 12)
Preseason:
Connecticut (AAC)
East Carolina (AAC)
Memphis (AAC)
SMU(AAC)
Temple (AAC)
UCF(AAC)
Alabama-Birmingham (Conference USA)
Charlotte (Conference USA)
Florida International (Conference USA)
Louisiana Tech (Conference USA)
Marshall (Conference USA)
North Texas (Conference USA)
Rice (Conference USA)
Southern Mississippi (Conference USA)
Texas San-Antonio (Conference USA)
Western Kentucky (Conference USA)
Akron (MAC)
Ball State (MAC)
Bowling Green (MAC)
Buffalo (MAC)
Central Michigan (MAC)
Eastern Michigan (MAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Toledo (MAC)
Air Force (Mountain West)
Boise State (Mountain West)
Colorado State (Mountain West)
Fresno State (Mountain West)
Hawaii (Mountain West)
Nevada (Mountain West)
New Mexico State (Mountain West)
San Jose State (Mountain West)
UNLV (Mountain West)
Utah State (Mountain West)
Wyoming (Mountain West)
Missouri (SEC)*
Appalachian State (Sun Belt)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt)
Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Louisiana Monroe (Sun Belt)
South Alabama (Sun Belt)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Texas State (Sun Belt)
Army (Independent)
BYU (Independent)
Liberty (Independent)
New Mexico State (Independent)
UMass (Independent)
*Missouri is bowl ineligible but is currently in the appeals process.
Edited by Emma Moloney | [email protected]