Pac-12 Tournament Preview: History says not Arizona
March 11, 2015 | Sports,
By: Conner Handel, KCOU Sports
While the Arizona Wildcats have now won consecutive Pac-12 regular season championships, including three of the last five, history shows they will ultimately fall short in the conference tournament.
Since the 2000s, the Wildcats have made eight Sweet Sixteen appearances, five Elite Eight appearances and one NCAA Championship birth. They have also won eight regular season conference championships. But amidst such success, the Cats have managed just one conference tournament championship, and it was 14 years ago. In fact, no team has really staked consistent hoisting of the trophy. The Pac-12 has crowned a different champion in each of the past four conference tournaments, meaning it is really anyone’s for the taking.
History:
2014: UCLA
2013: Oregon
2012: Colorado
2011: Washington
2015 Tournament bound teams:
Arizona
Utah
Oregon
Teams that need help:
UCLA
Stanford
The Favorite
(1) Arizona: 28-3
Trending Performance: Won 5 of last 7 games
At Stake: NCAA Tournament one seed
Arizona has wins over Gonzaga, San Diego State and Utah twice, all good wins, but it also has three questionable road losses to UNLV, Oregon State and Arizona State. The Cats’ top tier wins prove that, thanks to their superior defense, they can compete with anyone in the country. But their losses show that they can lose any given night if their offense does not show up. If Arizona is going to lose in the tournament it will likely be at their own doing.
The Contenders
(2) Oregon: 23-8,
Trending Performance: Won 9 of last 10 games
At Stake: NCAA Tournament seeding
The Ducks are the hottest team in the Pac-12 and have essentially clinched their spot in the Big Dance. They also have one of the top scorers in the conference in Joseph Young who is averaging 21.7 points per game in their hot ten game stretch. Young can also close games at the stripe, as he shoots 91.8 percent from the line this season. Of their last nine wins, five of them were determined by two possessions or less. If games come down to the wire in tournament play, Oregon has proven it can keep its composure and has a go-to guy to put away the game. The Ducks are trending up at the right time and will be a tough out.
(3) Utah: 23-7,
Trending Performance: Won 2 of last 5 games
At Stake: Momentum entering tournament
The Utes have had skeptics all season long. Up until their most recent loss this season to Washington, they did not have a bad loss. But time and time again they fell short versus upper-echelon competition: a four-point loss to San Diego State, a three-point loss to Kansas, two losses to Arizona and a loss to Oregon. They do have wins versus Wichita State and BYU, but a run in the tournament could not only go a long way for better NCAA tournament seeding, but could also generate some momentum for a team that has dropped three of its last five games.
(4) UCLA: 19-12,
Trending Performance: Won 5 of last 7 games
At Stake: NCAA Tournament bid
The Bruins had no shortage in opportunities to make a statement win, with non-conference games versus Kentucky, Gonzaga, North Carolina and Oklahoma, but they not only fell short in each contest but, for the most part, also failed to compete. Now they are finishing conference play by winning eight of its final 11 games and are generating some buzz about a potential at-large bid. They would need some help. But with a potential meeting with Arizona in the semifinals, the defending conference champions may have another opportunity for a statement win, and a shot for a one-way ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Sleeper
(6) Stanford: 18-12,
Trending Performance: Won 3 of last 10 games
At Stake: NCAA Tournament bid
Led by three graduate students, Stanford has let tournament hopes all but slip away with its most recent losing streak. Now, Stanford may have the toughest draw out of any team in the conference, which may actually play to its favor. The Cardinal start off versus Washington, a team that was ranked for a large part of the season and may have the second best collective wins in the conference only to Arizona. With a win, Stanford would then face No. 17 Utah. With another win, they could face second-seeded Oregon and then ultimately No. 5 Arizona in the championship. None of those are gimmes, but at least for Stanford there is a path where losing in the championship could still lead them to a consecutive NCAA Tournament birth.
Rest of the Field
(5) Arizona State: 17-14,
Trending Performance: Won 5 of last 7 games
At Stake: NIT bid
The Sun Devils already celebrated this season with a home victory over then No. 6 Arizona in February. Early on they struggled in close games, losing to Maryland, Texas A&M and Alabama each by five points or less. Arizona State has now proven it can win the close game, as four of its final five wins have come by five points or less. Even though they have found their groove, the only way they are getting into the tourney is by running the table.
(7) Oregon State: 17-13,
Trending Performance: Won 3 of last 11 games
At Stake: NIT bid
The Beavers managed to shock the conference back in January when they defeated Arizona at home 58-56. They have since killed any buzz they may have had by dropping six of their last seven games. On the bright side, their one win in that span came in a 72-58 routing of Colorado, allowing just 12 points at halftime. The Buffaloes just so happen to be whom Oregon State faces in the tournament. With a win, the Beavers would face in-state rival Oregon, a team they have already lost to twice. The only way the Beavers might snag an NIT bid would be by advancing through its rival to the semifinals, which seems unlikely.
(8) California: 17-14,
Trending Performance: Won 1 of last 6 games
Wins over Syracuse and UCLA illustrate how Cal, an inconsistent team that dealt with injuries, is capable of competing with better competition. The Bears should handle Washington State in the first round, but would then face one-seeded Arizona, a team that beat them by a combined 62 points in their previous two meetings this year. Don’t expect much from this underperforming team.
(9) Washington State: 13-17,
Trending Performance: Won 4 of last 14 games
The highlight of the Cougars’ season is their 108-99 overtime victory over Oregon in January. The Cougars shot 58 percent from the field and 58 percent from three, knocking down 14 in the process. They now kick off the tournament versus Cal, a team with which they split the season series. Both teams have struggled of late and neither should win more than one game, but that should not stop this matchup from being a back-and-forth offensive affair that accentuates the excitement this magical month delivers each year.
(10) Colorado: 14-16,
Trending Performance: Won 3 of last 10 games
Last year the Buffaloes thought the worst had come after losing their top player Spencer Dinwiddie to a torn ACL. As he graduated, Colorado returned its four remaining starters. But things went from bad to worse as they have done nothing but disappoint. They are 7-11 in conference, 14-16 overall and, barring a miraculous conference tournament run, will miss the tournament for the first time in four years. A first round loss would be a fitting end to a forgettable season.
(11) Washington: 16-14,
Trending Performance: Won 2 of last 10 games
The Huskies had a promising start to the season, winning its first 11 games, and beating Oklahoma and San Diego State in the process. But then the wheels fell off. They dropped four straight, dismissed the nation’s leading shot-blocker and team’s leading rebounder Robert Upshaw. Washington has shown flashes this season and is now coming off its biggest win of the year versus Utah. Look for the Huskies to put up a fight versus Stanford in the first round.
(12) USC: 11-19,
Trending Performance: Won 2 of last 15 games
The Trojans are 0-10 versus RPI Top 100 teams this year and have managed just three conference victories. A first round win versus Arizona State would likely lead to championship-like celebrations.
Prediction:
Oregon over Arizona
The Ducks have the star, know how to win close games and are streaking at the right time. Arizona may not have a history of winning the conference tournament, but they sure have a history making the championship. It has made in three of the last four years and lost each matchup by no more than four points. With the way Oregon closes out games, this year may be no different.