Southern Conference Tournament Preview


March Madness is upon us once more, and with that, KCOU’s Conference Tournament Previews. I have had the privilege and pleasure of covering the Southern Conference Tournament for KCOU every year which I have been a member, and the SoCon is great because of the intense competition year in and year out. Last season’s tournament featured three upsets in the quarterfinals, culminating with top-seeded UNC-Greensboro knocking off the upstart 7th-seeded Mercer Bears. Like the last few seasons, there are many viable contenders in this season’s tournament, and we will be taking a look at the favorites and a team that can play spoiler, along with the impact players who will make it happen. With the SoCon all but a lock for being a one-bid league, it all comes down to the conference tournament for one of these teams to make it to the Big Dance.

Contenders

Chattanooga Mocs– #1 Seed, 24-7 (14-4 in SoCon). 

After being upset by East Tennessee State in the quarterfinals in last season’s tournament, the Mocs have been one of the big surprises in the Southern Conference this season, with Lamont Paris’s squad capturing their first regular season title since 2016, which was also their last trip to the NCAA Tournament. Chattanooga has put together an impressive resume, especially against the top half of the conference, with a season sweep over both Furman and Wofford, while splitting with Samford, VMI and UNC-G. Much like last season’s championship-winning UNC-G, the Mocs get it done on defense, ranking first in the conference in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, allowing 100 points per 100 possessions, while ranking third in adjusted offensive efficiency at 110 points per 100 possessions. Don’t expect to see anywhere close to 100 possessions, however, as the Mocs play at one of the most deliberate paces in the conference at about 65 possessions in the game. 

Moving past the more analytical metrics, the Mocs lead the conference in scoring margin (+10.2), offensive rebounding percentage (33%), and field goal percentage (46.8%). Chattanooga is not really lacking in any category, finishing upper-middle of the pack in nearly every statistical category. Overall, this is a gritty, defensive team that does an exceptional job of limiting opposing 3-pointers, with opponents shooting a paltry 30% from beyond the arc. 

We have talked a lot about defense, but Chattanooga is not without elite talent on the offensive end. Sophomore guard Malachi Smith runs the show on offense, averaging an electric 20.6 points per game (1st in SoCon) on 51% shooting from the field and 41.3% from 3. He is also a reliable free throw shooter at 83%, and, as an added bonus, is also tied for second in steals per game, averaging 1.7 per contest. The Robin to Smith’s Batman is senior guard David Jean-Baptiste, who averages 14.6 points per game, and can also handle the ball for the Mocs. Like Smith, Jean-Baptiste is excellent at the stripe, shooting at an 87% clip. Finally, the man who anchors this Chattanooga squad is Silvio DeSousa. Fans might remember DeSousa’s troubled times as a member of the Kansas Jayhawks, but the senior from Angola has found a nice home with the Mocs, providing excellent rim protection, leading Chattanooga in rebounding, and chipping in 11 points per game. This terrific trio is the reason that the Mocs are on the cusp of their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2016, but can’t afford to let up the pressure in the conference tournament.

Furman Paladins: #2 Seed, 20-11 (12-6)

Last season, Furman was on the tough end of the biggest upset of the tournament, falling to 7th-seeded Mercer in the quarterfinal round after having a strong season that was interrupted multiple times by COVID-19. This season, the ‘Dins have been the best offensive team in the SoCon, averaging 114.6 points per 100 possessions. They also led the conference in a litany of categories, including 3-point percentage (38.6%), assists (17.9/game), and assist to turnover ratio (1.7, which is good enough for third in the entire country). The Mocs are led by a trio of guards on offense, with senior Mike Bothwell leading the way with 15.4 points per game on 46% shooting. Alex Hunter and Conley Garrison, also seniors, also contribute 13.6 and 9.6 points per game, respectively. 

However, it’s impossible to talk about Furman without mentioning prime-time forward Jalen Slawson, who is a force on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Slawson is second in points per game (14.6) and leads the team in rebounds and assists per game (7.6 and 3.9). Defensively, Slawson leads the league in steals per game with 1.8, while also averaging nearly two blocks, which has been one of the largest contributing factors in the Paladins leading the SoCon in turnover margin at +2.19 per game.

While Furman clearly has the metric makings of a great team, they have seen some odd trends throughout the season. First, Furman has been statistically one of the unluckiest teams in the entire nation, with a luck rating of -.072 (324/358 teams, explanation can be found here). This could mean that Furman is due for a change of fortune in the tournament, as the ‘Dins have been a victim of close games. 

Another quirky aspect of Furman’s season has been their relationship with scoring and tempo. As mentioned, the Paladins play one of the slowest paces in conference, yet in faster pace games, the Paladins have been much better than slower-paced games. In games in which Furman has eclipsed 80 points, the Paladins are 12-3, while they are 8-8 in other contests. These numbers suggest that when Furman is unable to control the tempo and play at a faster pace, they are actually more likely to win the game. It will be interesting to observe Furman’s strategy as they try to make it to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1980.

Samford- #3 Seed, 20-10 (10-8)

In complete contrast to Furman, the Bulldogs have been the third-luckiest team in the country with a rating of +.172. Samford has had the clutch gene this season, having gone an astonishing 8-3 in one possession games. From a statistical standpoint, Samford is essentially middle of the pack in most categories, only rising near the top with their tempo (2nd in conference), and in steals (7.4/game, 2nd). On top of that, the Bulldogs are also 8th in scoring defense and field goal percentage, as well as 9th in 3-point percentage (33%) and assists (12.9/game). 

While statistically unspectacular, Samford has quality wins, splitting with every team in conference with the exception of Western Carolina, who they swept. The Bulldogs will be tested in the neutral environment, as they have not played particularly well on the road, compiling a record of 2-7 in conference play, with their two wins against ETSU and Western Carolina. 

If the Bulldogs are able to elevate their game to their level when playing at their home in Birmingham, it’s going to be due to their phenomenal quartet of double-digit scorers. Leading the pack is Florida-transfer Ques Glover, who averages 19.1 points per game along with 4.4 assists. Glover’s role as a driver and facilitator allows his teammates around him to get more open opportunities to drive and shoot. 

Following Glover, the Bulldogs have a pair of forwards both averaging nearly 13 points per game in Jermain Marshall and Logan Dye. The Samford bigs combine for around 13 rebounds, and Dye is a particularly effective shotblocker on the defensive end. Finally, the Bulldogs feature sophomore guard Jaden Campbell, who averages 10 points per game while leading Samford in 3-point shooting at 38%. 

Overall, while Samford may not have the stats to back it up, this is a team who has been shown to be capable of beating every team in conference, and with how well the team has performed in the clutch this season, Samford will likely be the most comfortable in the late game. Samford takes on 6-seed UNC-G in the quarterfinals on Saturday, March 5, with a tip at 7:30pm, and will be looking for their first Southern Conference Tournament title and their first NCAA Tournament appearance since winning the Atlantic Sun Tournament in 2000. 

Dark Horse:

VMI Keydets- #5 Seed, 16-14 (9-9)

While Dan Earl’s team certainly isn’t going to win any defensive awards for their efforts this season, ranking dead last in conference in defensive efficiency, the Keydets are an exciting team on offense and have posted their best record since they left the Big South conference in 2014. VMI’s offense, which leads the conference in points per game while ranking as the second most efficient, per KenPom, is capable of keeping the Keydets in the game, and they have been able to drag more polished teams into shootout victories on many occasions, including wins against each of the top three seeds in this tournament. VMI leads the conference in 3-point volume, knocking down nearly 13 threes per game while shooting 38.4%, just behind Furman. Despite their defensive struggles, the Keydets actually lead the conference in defensive field goal percentage, with opponents shooting just 41.3%. 

The Keydets are led by senior Jake Stephens, a 6’11” do-it-all center, who averages 19.3 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, while adding 3 assists and 2 blocks per game. He also does this work extremely efficiently, shooting 56% from the field and a blistering 49% from 3. Stephens has missed the last two games with an injury, but looks to be available for the tournament this weekend. 

While this team will likely go as Stephens goes, he has a strong supporting cast in Kamdyn Curfman, Trey Bonham, and Honor Huff, all of whom score in double figures behind Stephens, and stepped up in his injury to knock off Chattanooga just two weeks ago. If Stephens is healthy, this team is a huge threat, and will not be a fun matchup late in the tournament. 

Along with staying healthy, the biggest keys for the Keydets will be to keep knocking down threes and keeping opponents off the glass, where they struggle mightily. VMI begins its quest for its first conference championship and NCAA Tournament appearance since 1997 on Saturday, March 5 at 1:30pm against 4th-seeded Wofford.

Tournament Winner and MVP

After having an elite offense that suffered many close losses, I think that Jalen Slawson is going to lead  Furman to a conference championship and their first trip to the big dance since 1980. In having the first round bye, Furman would only need to avoid the quarterfinals upset against the winner of Western Carolina and Mercer, then defeat the winner of Samford and UNC-G. While both of these teams have defeated Furman once this year, I think that the aggressive Paladin defense is capable of forcing turnovers against both, allowing more opportunities for their prolific offense to run up the score. On the other side of the bracket, top-seeded Chattanooga will have what I believe will be a tougher semifinal matchup of either Wofford or VMI, which could wear out their sterling defense, allowing Furman to flex their offensive muscles in the championship game.

The SoCon Championship game will be played on ESPN Monday, March 7 at 6pm. For the full tournament schedule, click here.

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