The MAAC in March last season got the most attention the league could possibly get. Saint Peter’s, a school that had the lowest athletic budget in Division l sports, pulled mammoth upsets over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue to complete the greatest NCAA Tournament run in the history of March Madness. What people seem to forget is that the Peacocks weren’t even the top team in the MAAC last season. They were the two seed and got a more favorable draw once Iona was upset in the quarterfinals by Rider. After getting the top seed and winning the league by four games, the Gaels are determined to get it done this time around in Atlantic City.

The Favorite:

Iona

Rick Pitino’s squad has garnered some national attention lately with their high quality play down the stretch. Despite some bumps in the road, the Gaels finished their season running off 11 wins in a row including a sweep of the dreaded Buffalo trip to Niagara and Canisius. Iona finished up their season on Saturday by winning at Rider, the number 2 seed in the tournament. Iona enters the tournament at number 78 in the country in KenPom. The next closest team in the league (Quinnipiac) is at 171.

Prior to turning the corner, the Gaels looked very vulnerable. They lost three out of five mid-season games including blowout losses at Quinnipiac and at Siena. They’ve also had to deal with some injuries as Quinn Slazinski, who’s out for the year, only played in 7 games for them this season. Cruz Davis is also likely out for the year for the Gaels so their guard depth will be tested.

Despite that, Iona will be a trendy upset pick if they can win the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels have two high-major caliber guards in Walter Clayton and Daniss Jenkins that were named to the All-MAAC first and second teams, respectively. Clayton is likely the favorite for MAAC Player of the Year, which is announced Wednesday. Nelly Junior Joseph was also named to the first team as a result of being the best big man in the conference this season. Joseph averaged 15 points and 9.5 rebounds this season as well as being nationally ranked in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Iona doesn’t have the depth that you would typically see in a high-major, especially with their injuries, but Osborn Shema and Anton Brookshire have both been playing great in the last couple weeks. Berrick JeanLouis rounds out the eight man rotation for the MAAC regular season champs. Shema and JeanLouis both are extremely good defenders and give Rick Pitino athleticism off the bench. This has allowed Iona to use a full court press to speed teams up. The Gaels will be heavy favorites in every game in this tournament.

Other Contenders:

Rider

Rider had three stages of their season this year. Their non-conference where they went 3-6 and played really inconsistent basketball. The middle of their conference slate where they won eight in a row and were the hottest team in the MAAC. Then the end of the season, where the Broncs limped to the finish line while losing home games to Canisius and Mount St. Mary’s in the process.

The takeaway from that is that we really don’t know what we’re going to get from Kevin Baggett’s team in Atlantic City this week. Despite not beating every team in the MAAC this season (swept by Quinnipiac), I feel confident in saying that Rider can beat any team in the conference.

If the Broncs do make a run, it will be on the back of Dwight Murray Jr. He was named to the first team in the league and deservedly so after putting up the numbers he did. Rider’s 106.5 offensive rating when Murray was on the court is super impressive considering he was 47th in the country in minutes percentage this season. Rider has also gotten solid production out of Mervin James this season who was named to the second team, but the key for the Broncs this week will be Allen Powell. In this bad stretch for Rider, Powell’s two highest scoring games were the games that Rider won. Rider depends on Murray, James and Powell to play big minutes which means that all three of them need to play well for the Broncs to get to the NCAA Tournament. Outside of the three-headed monster, Ajiri Ogemuno-Johnson will be an important player for Rider in this tournament, especially defensively. He is super strong and athletic at 6’8 and has the ability to slide with guards.

Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac, like Rider, stumbled to the finish line to end the season and finished in a tie for third with Siena at 11-9. The interesting thing about the Bobcats season is that they have alternated months playing well and playing awful. In November and January, Quinnipiac lost two games combined. Both of those losses weren’t bad either as the Bobcats lost a 2 point game on a neutral floor against Hofstra in November and then a game at Iona in late January in which they led at the half. The two things that the Bobcats have going for them is that they beat Rider twice and based on their trends this season, they should be due for a good March.

The way that the Bobcats hold up the trophy in Atlantic City will be dependent on if they can maintain the pace they want to play. Quinnipiac is the fastest team in the MAAC spearheaded by their point guard Dezi Jones. Jones was named second team all-conference and probably would’ve been first team if he played the minutes of a guy like Dwight Murray. Outside of Jones, the Bobcats like to rotate their guards as they have a super deep backcourt. Luis Kotright gets some of the ball-handling responsibilities as well and he and Jones along with the rest of the Bobcats backcourt have proved to be a problem this season.

Dark Horse:

Manhattan

Their record is far from eye-opening, but there are a handful of reasons that Manhattan can make a surprise run and potentially win the MAAC Tournament. To start, the Jaspers have played their best basketball down the stretch. Starting on January 29th, Manhattan has won six out of 10 to finish .500 in conference play. While the Jaspers aren’t what they were expected to be after some preseason turmoil, RaShawn Stores has been one of the most impressive coaches in the country this season.

If Manhattan wins their first game, they will get Quinnipiac in the second round who they just beat on the road two weeks ago. The way they’re playing right now, if Ant Nelson gets going, they could certainly make a run.

Other Notes:

Siena and Niagara are in the 4-5 matchup and both have had their moments at times this season. Siena won a very emotional game against Iona in front of a sold out crowd, but lost their last five to end the season. Niagara has an elite guard in Noah Thomasson who led the conference in scoring.

Canisius and Mount St. Mary’s are also playing extremely well right now and will meet in the 8-9 game. Mount St. Mary’s especially has started to get in rhythm due to them getting healthy. Malik Jefferson and Deandre Thomas both missed some significant time this season, but the Mount has won four of five headed into the tournament.

Every other team is probably not a real threat. If we’re being honest, Iona is so much better than the rest of the league, that everyone else is a dark horse. If the Gaels were to lose, it would come as a real shock with the way they’re playing. With that being said, here are my predictions for the tournament.

First Round:

8 Mount St. Mary’s < 9 Canisius

7 Fairfield > 10 Saint Peter’s

6 Manhattan > 11 Marist

Quarterfinals:

1 Iona > 9 Canisius

4 Siena < 5 Niagara

2 Rider < 7 Fairfield

3 Quinnipiac > 6 Manhattan

Semis:

1 Iona > 5 Niagara

3 Quinnipiac > 7 Fairfield

Championship:

1 Iona > 3 Quinnipiac

Most Outstanding Player: Walter Clayton