We are less than three weeks away from the first night of the NFL Draft taking place down the road in Kansas City. While the fanbase that resides in KC is ecstatic about how last season went, the other 31 fan bases around the league are hoping 2023 ends with their team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
That goal is more realistic for some teams than others, however the NFL Draft is a great opportunity for lesser squads to make up ground. Free agency is over for the most part so we have a pretty good idea what each team needs entering draft weekend.
So the time has come for me to revise my mock draft as plenty has changed since my original rendition. Perhaps the biggest change came with the draft order itself as Chicago (not surprisingly) fetched a haul for the top selection.
Ryan Poles was in a high leverage situation every general manager envies and he took full advantage of it. Not only did Poles land Carolina’s first rounder next year along with a pair of seconds, he also got Justin Fields a bonafide number one receiver he has lacked since his days at Ohio State.
Bears fans are rightfully thrilled after getting D.J. Moore who will immediately bring life to a stagnant passing attack. While this was an excellent move for Chicago, the Panthers by no means got the short end of the stick.
While giving up Moore along with plenty of draft capital is a hefty price to pay, it will be well worth it if they get the face of their franchise for the next 15 years. The Panthers have a viable roster and just upgraded at head coach with Frank Reich. If Reich gets the right guy to lead his offense, the NFC South may run through Charlotte for many years to come.
Getting a franchise quarterback is hard enough in this league, it turns out keeping one can also be quite the conundrum as well. The Ravens are finding this out the hard way as their contract negotiations with former MVP, Lamar Jackson are stuck in quicksand.
The guaranteed money in Jackson’s next contract is what is keeping the two sides separated and their future uncertain. The situation got to a point where Jackson requested a trade from the Ravens on March 2nd, two weeks before the team placed the non-exclusive tag on their former first round pick.
The Ravens current predicament with Lamar stems from the fully guaranteed contract the rival Browns gave to Deshaun Watson last offseason. Cleveland gave Watson $230 million fully guaranteed which was unprecedented to say the least. Fully guaranteed contracts of that magnitude have never been the norm, and the Ravens along with other teams want to keep it that way.
After receiving the non-exclusive tag, Jackson was free to negotiate a contract with all 32 teams but didn’t receive a formal offer. A quarterback of Jackson’s pedigree not garnering interest is odd, but it’s clear that the asking price for guaranteed money is too high.
Now I understand why Lamar wants a deal similar to Watson’s, he is one of the most valuable and dynamic players in football and wants to be compensated as such. With that being said, getting north of $230 million guaranteed doesn’t appear to be realistic.
I’m all for players getting as much money as possible in contract negotiations, but it’s evident that the NFL is sending a message that Deshaun Watson’s deal was a complete outlier.
I don’t doubt Lamar will eventually get paid and I still believe he and Baltimore will eventually get things worked out. My guess is the fully guaranteed money is somewhere in the ballpark of $150 million, similar to what Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen got.
Jackson’s contract situation appears highly unlikely to be resolved by the draft and GM Eric DeCosta showed last year he will make a deal during the draft when he shipped Hollywood Brown off to Arizona. While I don’t currently see that happening with Lamar, a potential league altering trade is a storyline worth monitoring during draft weekend.
2023 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
1.Carolina Panthers (from CHI)- Bryce Young, QB Alabama- It’s still unclear who Carolina is planning on selecting with the top pick but I am going with the most complete QB in this class. Despite being undersized for the position, Young is one of the most polished quarterbacks to come out of college in recent years.
2.Houston Texans- C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State- Young and Stroud are all but a lock to go top two, it’s just a matter of the order. I have Stroud being second off the board as Houston gets a pro ready signal caller that will immediately make them viable.
3.(MOCK TRADE) Indianapolis Colts (from ARI)- Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida- Indianapolis moves up one spot to ensure no one leapfrogs them to take one of the most polarizing QB prospects of all time. While Richardson is a major risk, Shane Steichen worked well with boom or bust prospects in Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert in his previous stops.
4.(MOCK TRADE) Arizona Cardinals (from IND)- Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama- Between J.J. Watt retiring and Zach Allen leaving in free agency, improving their pass rush is top priority for Arizona. The Cards are still able to get the best edge rusher in this class after moving down one spot.
5.Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)- Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia- Seattle needs to be better against the run if they want to build on their surprise playoff appearance last season. Carter will help with that as he is one of the best interior defensive line prospects in recent memory. While off the field concerns could cause Carter’s stock to slip, his upside is too much for Seattle to pass up.
6.Detroit Lions (from LAR)- Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon- Even after adding Cameron Sutton this offseason, Detroit still has work to do in order to solidify their secondary. Gonzalez is a perfect fit as he has the potential to be a lockdown corner early on in his career.
7.Las Vegas Raiders- Will Levis, QB, Kentucky- Jimmy Garoppolo is a respectable stopgap option, however Vegas needs a guy with a higher ceiling if they want to compete in the AFC West. Levis has the arm and build of an elite quarterback, he just needs to go somewhere he can sit and develop for a year or two.
8.Atlanta Falcons- Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech- Atlanta’s pass rush(or lack thereof) has been laughable for years. Luckily for them, a potential superstar in Tyree Wilson falls to them. Wilson fits Atlanta’s 3-4 defense and fixes their biggest hole.
9.Chicago Bears (from CAR)- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State- Chicago could go offensive line with this pick but they have promising young tackles and added Nate Davis at guard. Instead the Bears double down on improving their league worst passing game by taking the best WR in this draft.
10.Philadelphia Eagles (from NO)- Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia- Smith has been skyrocketing up mock drafts and I have him going to the reigning NFC Champs. Howie Roseman likes Georgia defenders and the Eagles are looking to replenish their front seven after losing multiple pieces this offseason.
11.Tennessee Titans- Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State- Tennessee’s offensive line was a disaster in 2022 and they lost three big pieces this offseason. You could argue for them going WR here but I have them getting their franchise blindside blocker for whoever is under center.
12.Houston Texans (from CLE)- Jordan Addison, WR, USC- Houston uses their second selection to get C.J. Stroud a reliable weapon in the middle of the field. Addison is a high volume target who consistently gets open and is an excellent route runner.
13.New York Jets- Broderick Jones- OT, Georgia- Mekhi Becton hasn’t been healthy the past two seasons and the Jets are thin at tackle outside of him. If the Jets bring in Aaron Rodgers, they have to make sure they keep him upright and Jones will certainly help with that.
14.New England Patriots- Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU- The Pats have focused on improving Mac Jones’ supporting cast this offseason and they continue to do so here. Johnston is an explosive deep threat that adds some much needed speed on the perimeter for New England.
15.Green Bay Packers- Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame- While taking pass catchers in the first round isn’t Green Bay’s usual business plan, that has to change after losing most of their top targets from last season. Mayer fits well in Matt LaFleur’s offense and will get involved early as both a receiver and a blocker.
16.Washington Commanders- Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois- Washington gets a steal with the second best corner in this class falling to the middle of the first round. Witherspoon is a complete corner who will make a dangerous pairing alongside Kendall Fuller.
17.Pittsburgh Steelers- Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State- Pittsburgh brought in Patrick Peterson but are still in need of a more long term solution at the position. Porter has the physicality and ball skills to be an excellent outside corner for many years to come.
18.Detroit Lions- Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson- The Lions struck gold with Aidan Hutchinson in the first round last year, now they pair him with another elite prospect at the position. Murphy had strong production in college and can line up from various spots on the defensive line.
19.Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Peter Skoronski, OT Northwestern- Tampa lost both Donovan Smith and Shaq Mason on the offensive line and they are fortunate to have Skoronski slip to them. Whether he remains a tackle or moves inside to guard, Skoronski will fill a void up front for the Bucs.
20.Seattle Seahawks- O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida- Seattle addressed their need at tackle in last year’s draft but they can still improve on the interior of their line. Torrence is an incredible run blocker that will create open gaps for Kenneth Walker.
21.Los Angeles Chargers- Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson- The Chargers were the quietest team in football this offseason so the pick remains the same as before. Bresee is an extremely gifted athlete that will improve a lackluster run defense.
22.Baltimore Ravens- Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College- Picking up OBJ is a step in the right direction, however WR is still a weak spot for the Ravens. Flowers isn’t the biggest receiver in this class, but he is incredibly explosive after the catch and is an ideal fit for a team desperate for weapons.
23.Minnesota Vikings- Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee- NFL circles are higher on Hooker than the public is and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sneaks into the first round. Kirk Cousins is a free agent after 2023 and Hendon has the traits to be a Pro Bowl QB. Hooker is still recovering from a torn ACL and will need time to adapt from Josh Heupel’s hyper spread offense to a more pro style system.
24.Jacksonville Jaguars- Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee- Jawaan Taylor departed for Kansas City, leaving a void on the line for the Jags. Wright proved himself against the best competition in the country and is a day one starter at right tackle.
25.New York Giants- Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee- Make it three straight Volunteers off the board (I didn’t plan this) in my mock. The Giants are going all in with Daniel Jones so it only makes sense to improve their receiver room. Hyatt has elite top end speed and can take the top off a defense on any given play, he just needs to expand his route tree.
26.Dallas Cowboys- Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah- Dallas finds their Dalton Schultz replacement and he just so happens to have the same first name (I promise I am not planning these coincidences). Kincaid will help solidify the Cowboys’ skill personnel as Mike McCarthy takes over play calling duties.
27.Buffalo Bills- Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas- Robinson is one of the best players in this entire class but will likely have to wait a while for his name to be called due to positional value. Fortunately, the Bills have plenty of value for Robinson as they need to have a more consistent ground game if they wanna get over the hump in the AFC.
28.Cincinnati Bengals- Brian Branch, S, Alabama- Cincy lost both Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell in free agency so they take the best safety in this class. The Bengals reload their secondary with Branch who can contribute as both a safety and a nickel corner.
29.New Orleans Saints (from DEN)- Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa- After losing Marcus Davenport, NOLA looks to add depth at edge rusher alongside Cam Jordan. Van Ness has been climbing draft boards and the Saints take him due to his physical upside.
30.Philadelphia Eagles- Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt- Philly lost Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox is getting up there in age so they add youth to their interior defensive line. The Eagles stay in state by taking Kancey who, alongside Nolan Smith, will keep their pass rush amongst the best in football.
31.Kansas City Chiefs- Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech- Frank Clark is gone and Chris Jones only has one year left on his deal. The reigning champs take a developmental pass rusher in Keion White who has elite physical tools but is new to the position. The Senior Bowl standout needs some time, but can develop into a premier defensive end in a few years.