NFL Draft comparisons are a double-edged sword. On one hand, it’s a helpful way of conveying to fans who a certain prospect is in relation to other professionals. On the other hand, some comps are bad, lazy and often generalized (are you a quarterback with intriguing physical traits but possess a lack of experience? Congrats, you’re the next Josh Allen!).
However, I think comparing football players to other football players is getting a little…boring. It sounds obvious, right? If you had a really good pizza, you’d likely compare it to another really good pizza you’ve had in the past. While that’s the most logical way to go about comparisons, I’m here to offer up a new version of comparisons for NFL Draft prospects.
In a football media economy where analysis is becoming deeper with increased access to scouting, it’s also becoming more complicated. I feel as if comparing prospects to non-football entities will help a lot of people understand who a prospect is. Comparing a prospect to a current or former NFL player can make an already complicated process even more complicated. While former tight end Marcedes Lewis is a solid comparison for Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer, what if someone doesn’t know who Marcedes Lewis is?
There was an article that was recently published by Tyler Forness of Yahoo! Sports detailing five “unique” draft comparisons; for example, he compared Alabama safety Brian Branch to Pablo Sanchez from the legendary Backyard Baseball video game. I like the way Tyler thinks. I think he’d like this column. This one’s for you, Mr. Forness.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas: Waze
Stick with me here. I promise this will make sense.
There aren’t a ton of differences between Google Maps and Waze. Waze is a little more adventurous than Google Maps, as it adjusts routes in real time to get drivers to their desired destination the fastest, even if it means taking odd backroads. Waze will do whatever it takes to get from Point A to Point B in the least amount of time. Unlike Google Maps, which merely suggests a route change to drivers if there’s a faster one, Waze will do it automatically. This concludes today’s digital navigation discourse.
The way Robinson runs makes me feel like there’s a program in his head putting together the most efficient routes to the end zone while avoiding accidents (defenders) in real time, even if the route is a little unorthodox. Not only that, Robinson is capable of making seemingly impossible on-the-fly route adjustments with his athleticism. Take this touchdown against Kansas as an example.
There were about three moments during that run where a normal running back would’ve either run into their own offensive lineman, been tackled or both. The thing about Robinson, however, is that he’s lightyears beyond the ability of a normal running back.
Robinson’s dominance has been supreme since high school. He scored 99 (!) rushing touchdowns in his final three years at Salpointe Catholic in Arizona. He got better every year at Texas, which included 18 rushing touchdowns last season and a career average yards per carry of 6.3 (!!).
Not only was the production there, Robinson’s projection to the professional level is unlike many college running backs that have ever entered the draft. We’ve already talked about the elite vision, but at a mean 6’, 220 pounds, Robinson is able to combine that vision with tantalizing physical traits. He’s got it all: size, speed, agility, receiving chops…Robinson doesn’t have any true weaknesses. When he runs, there are no wasted steps; every movement Robinson executes has a purpose, and it’s all so smooth. He’s one of the few backs that’s aesthetically pleasing to watch run with the football.
The only knock on Robinson has nothing to do with him as a player; it’s the mere taboo that surrounds taking a running back in the first round. Although Robinson is easily one of the five best prospects in this year’s draft, a large number of mock drafts have Robinson falling to the 20’s.
The reasons are understandable; the gap between good and great running backs is far smaller than that of other position groups. Running backs have short shelf lives, and the opportunity cost of taking a running back high in the draft isn’t great (here’s a wonderful article by ESPN’s Bill Barnwell outlining why taking a running back in the first round is risky).
While picking Robinson early might not be the best idea from an opportunity cost perspective, he’s easily one of the five best players in this draft. Whoever drafts him is going to be immediately better on offense. If your draft strategy is to take good players (one that I can definitely get behind), Robinson absolutely fits the bill.
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois: Diar DeRozan
For those who don’t follow the NBA, Diar DeRozan is the nine-year old daughter of Chicago Bulls star forward DeMar DeRozan. She was in attendance for Chicago’s win-or-go-home play-in game against the Raptors in Toronto a couple of weeks ago; by the end of the game, the DeRozan that was trending all over social media wasn’t DeMar.
Rather, it was Diar, who was screaming at the top of her lungs during every Raptors free throw. Since ScotiaBank Arena was quiet whenever the Raptors shot a free throw, Diar’s shrill was extremely audible. It wasn’t just the fact that she was screaming; it actually seemed to be working, as Toronto shot a paltry 18/36 from the charity stripe (36 screams in under four hours gives me a headache just thinking about it). The Raptors blew a 19-point second half lead en route to a season-ending defeat to the Bulls in large part due to their inability to convert foul shots.
It was a historically awful performance from the charity stripe; the Raptors hadn’t shot 50% from the free throw line on more than 20 attempts in a game since January 2014. Although DeMar has dropped 30+ points in 16 postseason contests, Diar’s game-changing hollers might go down as the best playoff performance by a DeRozan in NBA history.
Now, what does Diar DeRozan have to do with Devon Witherspoon? Essentially, Witherspoon plays how Diar screams. Let me cook.
Diar and Devon are both smaller people. At just 6’ and 181 pounds, Witherspoon’s frame is slight. However, despite lacking in size, Witherspoon is a physical force of nature, just like Diar was an audible force of nature at just nine years old. Witherspoon’s willingness to throw his body around and general desire to literally destroy the opposition is rivaled by few defenders his size. He’ll lock his eyes on his target and attack with ferocity, sort of like a cheetah pursuing a gazelle across the savannah.
While he has his fair share of misses, his hits are just…mean!
Not only is Witherspoon a little terrifying, he’s incredibly smart. His chaotic play style is controlled; while he’s occasionally overaggressive, Witherspoon times his tackles and pass breakup attempts with the precision of Diar’s foul shot squeals.
Specifically regarding his coverage skills, the numbers speak for themselves. Witherspoon’s 26 pass breakups over the past two seasons rank fourth in the 2023 class behind Jakorian Bennett, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Clark Phillips III. Amongst draft-eligible corners in 2022, no one allowed a lower percentage of their targets to be caught (31.6) and no one allowed a lower passer rating for opposing quarterbacks when they were the primary coverage defender (45.3) than Witherspoon according to PFF.
To put the cherry on top, Witherspoon was the highest ranked corner in coverage according to PFF. Having an elite cover corner is extremely valuable; it enables a defensive coordinator to diversify their play calls and eliminates the need to have to cover up a coverage deficiency.
Witherspoon was a zero-star recruit out of high school in 2019; just four years later, he’s turned himself into a cornerback that can do almost everything who also possesses the mentality of Kam Chancellor. That’s a prospect certainly worth shouting about.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama: Lightning
Comparing athletes to extreme weather/climate is a little easier. Some are exceptional enough to where their singular force can change a game, similarly to a hurricane or some other natural disaster. My favorite athlete/weather comparison was when The Ringer’s Tyler Parker said that guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexader “was like trying to shake hands with a tornado”.
In a similar vein, watching Gibbs reminds me of Mother Nature’s 50,000 degree hot flashes. He’ll get the ball and BANG! There’s a defender falling helplessly to the ground as if they’d gotten struck by lightning. Gibbs consistently makes moves that are so quick and sudden that defenders barely have time to process what had just hit them.
While lightning is breathtaking when it strikes, it doesn’t happen often compared to sunny/cloudy days; if Gibbs is lightning, Nick Chubb is a sunny day. Gibbs is likely won’t be on the field like a three-down back would; his frame is thin, and he struggles as a blocker. He received 20 carries in a game just three times over his three years in college, and I wouldn’t expect the team that drafts him to use him as a bellcow like Chubb.
Despite that, Gibbs can still inject an offense with copious amounts of electricity as both a runner and a pass-catcher. Alabama had Gibbs run routes out of the backfield quite frequently. He could operate in a similar role Tony Pollard does currently for the Cowboys; while he’ll play semi-sparingly, he’ll be a versatile chess piece who’s a home-run threat every time he touches the ball.
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee: A slightly damaged XBOX controller
To preface: I’m using XBOX instead of PlayStation because that’s what I played growing up. If you’re still getting up in arms over which console is better, I kindly ask that you find more important things to worry about.
Anyhoo, in regards to Hooker, the Tennessee star is very much like an XBOX controller. For one, XBOX controllers are powerful pieces of equipment, as is Hooker throwing a football. Josh Heupel’s mega-spread offense needed a few things from its quarterback, and having a cannon arm was one of them. Hooker’s would have definitely helped medieval pirates back in the day. Argh!
Heupel also needed his quarterback to remain in-structure, just like you need a video game controller to carry out the functions you intend to execute. Hooker was exceptional at hitting open receivers; when Jalin Hyatt was flying downfield with the nearest defender 15 yards behind him like the play call intended him to, Hooker wouldn’t overthink it. Although he gets a little jumpy in the pocket once pressure arrives, he usually only runs when he needs to, and he’s pretty dangerous in the open field at 6’4”, 220 pounds.
The questions surrounding Hooker are certainly valid. He’s 25 years old (four months older than Jalen Hurts) and tore his ACL late last season. Think of a controller that was bought in 2018 having been angrily slammed on the ground one too many times. It’s still able to do its job, but it’s in a diminished state; you might have to press a little harder on the right button for it to work, and the battery holder is broken off.
The offense Hooker played in also raises questions about the translatability of his processing ability. Tennessee ran a mega-spread offense that lit college football on fire, but Hooker’s reads seemed pre-determined. While it’s nice that he almost always stuck to the game plan (in part because it worked frequently), the luxury of having a receiver frequently open downfield likely won’t be there in the NFL. Hooker also often had ample time to throw; in fact, he’d sometimes have so much time to throw, it’d look like his controller disconnected because he’d just be standing still in the pocket with little threat of the opposing pass rush getting home. That likely won’t be the case in the NFL, either.
I think Hooker can be a decently decent NFL quarterback. Despite the fact that he played in an offense where he didn’t have to do a lot of heavy lifting in terms of processing, is older and is coming off of a major knee injury, he possesses a good enough combination of smarts and physical traits to make me think he can have a lengthy NFL career.
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State: The Simpsons
When you’re a 166-pound cornerback playing Division I college football (in the SEC, nevertheless), you need to make up for your lack of physical size with something else if you want to become a legitimate pro prospect. In Forbes’ case, he can predict the future similarly to the famed cartoon television show.
His unreal anticipation is great for two reasons. One is that he’s actually able to process what the offense is doing at a level unlike many other cornerbacks in the country. Two is that he believes in himself enough to actually do something about whatever is about to happen. He’s similar to Witherspoon in that he’s willing to throw his body around in the pursuit of making a play on the ball (although I think Witherspoon is better in that category than Forbes). Sometimes, he’ll read the play so well that it’ll look like he’d been studying the play longer than the offense.
That was far from the first time Forbes made a highlight play on the ball; he set an NCAA record for most career pick-sixes with six. He ended his career with 14 interceptions, becoming only the seventh Division I player in the last five seasons (not including 2020) to reach that mark.
The ball production is a major positive for Forbes, especially considering the longevity of his elite performance. Unlike prospects such as Kenny Pickett and Keion White, Forbes was an impact player each year he was in college, racking up at least eight passes defended and three interceptions in each of his three seasons in Starkville, including 16 PBU’s and six interceptions last season.
Like any prospect, Forbes has weaknesses. Not every interception was Forbes jumping a route like he did against Kentucky; there were a chunk of picks that were more the result of a mess-up by the offense instead of Forbes creating a takeaway himself (take Forbes’ pick-six against East Tennessee State as an example). His elite anticipation can also get him into trouble sometimes, as he’s prone to overpursuing, and…ok, I don’t know why I’m stalling. HE’S 166 POUNDS! Forbes has gotten overpowered mono-y-mono plenty of times, even if he reads a play correctly. That’s difficult to overcome, especially for a guy like him who’s hovered around 165 since his high school days.
Forbes is going to have to remain a football prophet if he wants to hold up in the NFL. Out of PFF’s top-20 cornerbacks of the 2022 season, none of them are listed below 185 pounds. When Forbes is drafted, he’ll become one of the lightest cornerbacks in the NFL. But when you can predict the future, perhaps anything is possible.