We have reached the heart of summer in the south with the temperature scorching and air conditioners working overtime. The middle of July not only brings warm weather, but also kicks off the talking season for college football. While we are six weeks away from any games being played, pundits and fans are already turning their focus to the fall.
SEC Media Days kick off this week with coaches and players from all 14 schools conglomerating for this week’s festivities. Some programs enter 2023 with SEC and national title expectations while others are looking to be the darkhorse in the conference in 2023.
There are several factors that go into a team’s performance throughout the season for better or worse. I want to focus on the main question surrounding each team as the season rapidly approaches.
The conference and sport as a whole have several questions regarding the future of NIL along with a new wave of TV contracts on the horizon. The SEC is preparing for the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, and the structure of the conference schedule beyond 2024 remains a mystery.
As for the 14 current members, each have their own set of expectations and goals for the 2023 campaign. With SEC Media Days kicked into full swing, I looked into the biggest question each fanbase should have for their respective programs.
Georgia Bulldogs– How smooth is the offensive coordinator transition from Todd Monken to Mike Bobo?
The two-time defending champs have a surprising lack of uncertainty considering all the talent they lost to the NFL. Last year showed that UGA can more than withstand defensive losses after they nearly replicated their historic 2021 production despite losing five eventual first round picks.
Kirby Smart has built the best defensive culture in America, and it’s a safe bet for them to be elite on that side of the ball for many years to come.
Offensively, the Dawgs return Brock Bowers along with a deep WR room that added Dominic Lovett in the portal. The backfield and offensive line remain the envy of college football giving presumed starting QB Carson Beck a plethora of elite talent to work with.
The biggest question mark for Georgia is the offensive coordinator change. Todd Monken returned to the NFL after a successful three year run in Athens. Mike Bobo was elevated from within and now begins his second stint as the Bulldogs’ OC.
I don’t expect any major changes to the offense, and Brock Bowers said at media days that the transition has been seamless. While I certainly expect Georgia to maintain their production offensively, you can’t tell how a program reacts to losing an elite coordinator until games start happening.
While they are unproven at quarterback, Carson Beck appears to be all but a lock to be the Week 1 starter. Beck has all the pieces around him to succeed; it’s just a matter of clicking with Bobo.
Tennessee Volunteers– Can they improve enough defensively to bridge the gap with Georgia?
2022 was a renaissance for Tennessee football led by the best scoring offense in program history. The result was an 11-2 season that saw wins over Alabama, LSU and Clemson. While I have no doubt in Josh Heupel to consistently roll out potent offenses, the other side of the ball leaves plenty to be desired.
The Vols defense was hit and miss last year, and their biggest miss was a 63-38 bludgeoning at the hands of South Carolina which thwarted Tennessee’s playoff ambitions. Tennessee had the number one total and scoring offense in the nation last fall so there’s little doubt that they can get into a shootout with anyone they run up on.
However, if the Vols want to take the next step, they need to meet a certain threshold defensively. There was improvement on that side of the ball from 2021 and if they can maintain that upward trajectory they could challenge Georgia’s dominance in the East.
The Volunteers’ run defense was actually quite good last year however their pass defense was bottom five in the FBS. You can’t have a glaring weakness like that and expect to take down a well rounded machine like Georgia.
I’m not saying the Vols need to be UGA or Bama, however there will need to be a noticeable jump defensively if Tennessee wants to get to Atlanta for the first time since 2007.
Florida Gators– How far can first year defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong’s defense take them?
The Gators are coming off of back to back losing seasons for the first time since the late-70s, and 2023 could very well be another rough go around in Gainesville. Florida loses a top five pick in quarterback Anthony Richardson and ranks towards the bottom of the conference in returning production.
If the spring game was any indicator, the 2023 Gators will be a squad led by their defense. Florida brings in an up and comer in Austin Armstrong in hopes of improving a unit that struggled in Billy Napier’s first season.
Florida won’t have an Anthony Richardson to bail them out, and their best bet at exceeding expectations is to play complementary football. If the defense can pop under Armstrong, the Gators can be a tough out for SEC opponents in the fall.
Billy Napier has Florida trending in the right direction and is in the process of putting together a phenomenal 2024 recruiting class headlined by five star QB DJ Lagway. With that being said, Gator fans will get impatient if Florida sticks in neutral or even goes backwards in year two.
The 2024 schedule is one of the most daunting I have ever seen and you’re Billy Napier you don’t want to be on the hot seat entering that gauntlet.
South Carolina Gamecocks– Which version of Spencer Rattler will we get in 2023?
2022 looked like a pedestrian season for the Gamecocks for the first ten games before rattling off two marquee wins against Tennessee and Clemson. The Gamecocks have steadily improved throughout the Shane Beamer era and have over achieved in each of the past two seasons.
What changed for Carolina down the stretch last year? Spencer Rattler’s performance is a good place to start. Rattler, who was a Heisman favorite this time two years ago, underperformed during the early part of 2022 but improved down the stretch including a six touchdown showing against Tennessee.
The Gamecocks lost a lot of production from a season ago and will need to get the late season Spencer Rattler to make up for the pieces they lost. New offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains plays a key role in how 2023 pans out for Rattler and South Carolina as a whole.
If Rattler can live up to the hype he had coming out of high school, the Gamecocks can reach nine wins and play spoiler to someone’s College Football Playoff ambitions again.
Kentucky Wildcats– How much will the offensive line improve after portal acquisitions?
Mark Stoops has quietly built one of the most consistent programs in the SEC winning at least seven games six consecutive seasons(excluding shortened 2020 season). Seven wins was once viewed as a best case scenario in Lexington but has now become their floor.
While 2022 was a solid campaign, they regressed from a double digit win season the year prior due in large part to offensive ineptitude. Returning Liam Coen at offensive coordinator and adding Devin Leary in the portal are definitely steps in the right direction, however it all boils down to the play up front.
I don’t question Coen as an offensive mind nor do I doubt Devin Leary(assuming he can stay healthy). The big unknown is how much better the offensive line will be after a dismal 2022.
The Wildcats brought in a haul through the portal along the line including tackles Marques Cox and Courtland Ford. There isn’t much question that the line should be improved; it’s only a matter of questioning how much improvement is necessary.
The schedule early on is very manageable which gives this new look line time to gel as a unit. If Devin Leary can stay upright and Vandy transfer Ray Davis has adequate run blocking, this could be one of the most improved offenses in the nation.
Missouri Tigers– Will the offense break out under first year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore?
There might not have been a more frustrating team in the SEC last year than Mizzou. The Tigers struck gold with the Blake Baker hire at defensive coordinator, and the defense turned around far quicker than anyone could have hoped.
Despite the defensive resurgence, the Tigers once again settled for six wins due to a severely limited offense that squandered several winnable games. Mizzou lost four one score games in various heartbreaking ways, from fumbles out of the end zone to roughing the punter penalties called 50 yards behind the line of scrimmage(the SEC fixed that rule by the way).
This is where Kirby Moore comes into play. Moore led a proficient offense at Fresno State with Jake Haener running the unit. The Tigers have arguably the most underrated WR room in the nation on top of an improved line, and their entire backfield from 2022 back.
Quarterback is still up in the air, but the way Eli Drinkwitz was speaking at Media Days it sounds like Brady Cook is the front runner. Whether it’s Cook, Jake Garcia or Sam Horn under center, they will be in a much more quarterback friendly system that spreads the field and gets receivers in open space.
Drinkwitz is facing a pivotal year four in Columbia and how Kirby Moore’s offense performs will determine not only Mizzou’s 2023 season but the future of the program as well.
Vanderbilt Commodores– Can they carry the momentum from late season conference wins into 2023?
Vandy plays host to this year’s Media Days here in Nashville, and the ‘Dores are looking to go bowling for the first time since 2018. They got a lot closer to six wins than most anticipated last year, pulling off a 5-7 campaign that saw them win their first conference game since 2019.
Clark Lea has emphasized that Vanderbilt is a developmental program, and optimism is starting to grow regarding the hometown team.That optimism was sparked by a pair of upset wins against Kentucky and Florida down the stretch. The Florida win resulted in Vandy fans pulling off the politest field storming in the history of college football.
Bowl eligibility is a real possibility for Vanderbilt in year three of the Clark Lea era as the Commodores have a workable out of conference schedule. Having AJ Swann at QB for the full year will be advantageous after he and Mike Wright went back and forth last fall.
For Vandy, 2023 is about closing the gap between themselves and the middle of the pack in the SEC. If Lea and his staff can continue to develop their personnel, the Commodores could become a viable program.
Alabama Crimson Tide- Who takes over for Bryce Young, and what kind of production will we see from the quarterback position?
Alabama enters 2023 with far more questions than usual. Nick Saban replaced both coordinators after falling short of the CFP last season, and they didn’t have the production at wide receiver they’re accustomed to.
While there are plenty of question marks surrounding the Tide, the biggest one lies at the quarterback position. Bryce Young is the best quarterback Saban has ever had, and he is off to Carolina, leaving a three man battle for the right to be his successor.
Unlike other quarterback battles in the conference, there isn’t a clear frontrunner for the starting spot in Tuscaloosa. Jalen Milroe came in for Young when he was hurt last year and showed flashes but was inconsistent. Redshirt freshman Ty Simpson and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner have battled with Milroe for the position in the spring, and it’s uncertain if anyone has separated themselves entering fall camp.
New offensive coordinator Tommy Rees worked with Buchner at Notre Dame so that is a factor to consider when looking at this battle. Regardless of who wins the job, the bigger picture is the production the Crimson Tide get out of their new signal caller.
Alabama’s offense isn’t nearly as star studded as in year’s past so the quarterback will likely need to elevate the unit. Bama still has a roster that is as talented as any in America but they need some young guys to develop into high end starters quickly(namely at WR).
If the Tide can get QB figured out the rest of the offense should take care of itself. LSU already caught Bama last November and stole the West, and if there are problems under center in Tuscaloosa, the Tigers are in a prime position to repeat as division champs.
LSU Tigers– Can they make a case as the best program in the West over Alabama?
LSU’s rebuild under Brian Kelly is way ahead of schedule after a surprise trip to Atlanta in year one of the new regime. The Tigers winning the SEC West is nothing new(whether it be LSU or Auburn) but there’s a different feel this time around.
Although LSU are the reigning division champs, Alabama is still the unquestioned top program on that side of the conference. With that being said, a second straight win over Bama and appearance in the SEC title would be a sign that there is a power shift in the conference.
Before I go on any further, yes I am well aware that there won’t be anymore divisions after 2023 but LSU will still use Bama as a measuring stick for their program. No matter how the SEC determines which teams to send toAtlanta, LSU will have to go through Nick Saban both on the field and in recruiting to reach their end goals.
Since Saban was hired in 2007, no SEC West team other than Alabama have been able to win the division two years in a row. If Brian Kelly can accomplish that feat in his first two years in the conference, it would silence all the concerns about him being the right “fit” at LSU or in the south.
LSU has far fewer questions than their main rival to the east. While the Crimson Tide are replacing both coordinators and a Heisman winning quarterback, LSU returns both of its coordinators and has a QB in Jayden Daniels that may very well win the Heisman this year.
Not to mention LSU brings back Harold Perkins who might have been the best defensive player in the country as a true freshman.
LSU has shown it can be as good or better than Bama in a given season but haven’t been able to sustain Alabama’s performance year to year. Between LSU’s returning production and the top ranked portal class in America, the Tigers have a chance to return to Atlanta and much more in 2023.
Auburn Tigers– Can Hugh Freeze do what Gus Malzahn did a decade ago and turn Auburn around overnight?
Auburn had an abysmal 2022 for a multitude of reasons which led to Bryan Harsin getting fired midseason and former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze being brought in to right the ship. The Tigers failed to reach bowl eligibility and had back to back losing seasons for the first time in the 21st Century.
Once upon a time back in 2012 Auburn was coming off of an atrocious 3-9 and appeared lightyears away from being a threat in the SEC. Fast forward to 2013 and Auburn sat atop the conference and were a play away from winning it all in Pasadena.
Granted they had a couple of miracle plays go their way but there is proof of concept that a quick turnaround is doable on the plains. Now I am not expecting Hugh Freeze to win the SEC or make it all the way to Houston in January, but I could see the Tigers being better than their preseason expectations.
Freeze overhauled the offense via the portal with seven projected starting spots being filled by incoming transfers. Auburn may not pull a rabbit out of its hat like it did in 2013, but who’s to say the Tigers can’t be what LSU was last year?
Many may forget, but LSU was projected to be a fringe bowl team in 2022 before winning ten games and upsetting Alabama. I could see us looking up at the West standings at season’s end and seeing nine or ten wins next to Auburn. Anyone who followed this program over the years knows how dangerous they are in odd number years when they get Georgia and Alabama at Jordan-Hare.
Freeze was able to beat Bama in back to back years during his time at Ole Miss, could the Tigers be the West’s surprise team this year?
Texas A&M Aggies– Can Bobby Petrino save the Aggies’ offense?
You probably know the story by now, Texas A&M lands the best recruiting class of all time, A&M woefully under achieves and loses to Appalachian State en route toa 5-7 season, several players from that class transfer out.
No team fell short of expectations quite like A&M did last fall, but the good news for Aggie fans is this exercise is focused on 2023, not 2022. Jimbo Fisher made headlines by bringing in Bobby Petrino as an offensive coordinator. Everyone has their opinion on Petrino at this point as everything surrounding his career is well documented.
Regardless of your personal opinion on Petrino, this is the best position for him and the Aggies to succeed on paper. Petrino can focus on building an offense and focus on the Xs and Os aspect of coaching where he has always thrived.
The reason I say this works *on paper* is because we still aren’t sure how Fisher and Petrino are gonna divide responsibility over the offense. Fisher faced multiple questions during Media Days about play calling duties, and he has remained covert on where he and Petrino’s responsibilities begin and end.
Jimbo Fisher had control over play calling last season and the results speak for themselves. While Fisher had success calling plays back at Florida State, the results haven’t translated to College Station. Most head coaches don’t call plays and instead have a CEO type role. The sport is more demanding than ever on its coaches so delegating responsibilities is crucial to succeed.
Despite some of their portal losses, this is still an incredibly talented roster with a promising young QB in Conner Weigman and highly rated WR Evan Stewart. If Petrino is granted full control of the offense, this is a dark horse playoff contender.
A&M is the most volatile team in the nation in the sense that I could see the Aggies win 11 games and wind up in Atlanta but could also see them imploding like they did last season. The amount of freedom Fisher gives Petrino will go a long way in determining this season and Jimbo Fisher’s job security at season’s end.
Ole Miss Rebels– Can Quinshon Judkins make a Heisman run?
Most of the questions I have for this season are team based, however I am intrigued if college football’s most prestigious individual accolade could make its way to Oxford for the first time ever. Neither Archie nor Eli were able to bring home the Heisman in their time with the Rebels.
Judkins broke onto the national scene as a true freshman rushing for over 1,500 yards and 16 TDs and establishing himself as the best back in the conference. Lane Kiffin invited Judkins to be one of Ole Miss’s three players to attend SEC Media Days which is usually an honor reserved for upperclassmen. Judkins is the only underclassman that is in Nashville this week, and his play last fall justifies it.
The Heisman has increasingly become a QB centric award with Derrick Henry being the only tailback to win the award since 2010. If anyone is going to buck the recent trend it could very well be Judkins who will have ample opportunities to have a Heisman moment.
Ole Miss draws its usual SEC West powers in Alabama and LSU but also gets Georgia in Athens towards the end of the year. While a game at Georgia isn’t good for your record, it is a great opportunity to grab the attention of Heisman voters.
In a crazy scenario where Judkins caps off an incredible season by having an incredible game against the back to back national champs, voters would have a much harder time leaving the sophomore out of Pike Road, Alabama off their ballots.
Mississippi State Bulldogs- What is the offense’s new identity under new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay?
Being a first time head coach in the SEC is always a tall task regardless of circumstance. Zach Arnett’s situation is different as he is taking over a program that tragically lost its leader and one of the greatest coaches of our generation in Mike Leach.
Leach leaves a legacy that few coaches in the history of the sport can match and a one of a kind personality that wouldn’t be confused with anyone else.
Arnett took over the program for their bowl game against Illinois where the team earned an emotional victory to finish 2022 9-4 with their first win against Lane Kiffin in the Egg Bowl. Arnett now looks to navigate the hardest division in college football with his team’s offensive identity going through a massive change.
Leach co-invented the air raid offense and put up massive passing numbers with Will Rogers who returns to Starkville within striking distance of the SEC’s passing record. Arnett tabbed Kevin Barbay to take over the offense after a strong body of work at Appalachian State.
Arnett chose Barbay to run his offense due to his ability to adapt his offense based on his personnel. Arnett said at Media Days to expect a more run-pass balanced offense and that they can get the same looks on various plays just out of a different formation.
Rogers said that we should expect to see more play action passes in this new offense. State returns much of it’s offensive production from a year ago on a team that won nine games and finished the the AP top 20.
Arkansas Razorbacks– Was 2022 just a down year, or was 2021 an aberration?
Imagine going back in time to December 2019 and talking to an Arkansas fan right after Sam Pittman was hired. You and this fan are chatting about the Hogs and he asks you what their record was in Pittman’s third season. You tell him they went 7-6 with a bowl win, and the Arkansas fan is ecstatic that his team was finally viable for the first time in years.
However in real time, Arkansas’s seven win 2022 campaign was viewed as a major disappointment by Razorback fans. This was due to their breakout 2021 when they won nine games and looked to be even better entering last year.
Unfortunately for Arkansas fans, an awful secondary and KJ Jefferson being dinged up led to an underwhelming 2022. The Razorbacks replace Kendall Briles with Dan Enos at offensive coordinator along with Barry Odom with Travis Williams at defensive coordinator.
2023 will give us a good idea of whether 2022 was just a down year due to various injuries or if 2021 was a fluke. Arkansas returns Jefferson at QB along with Raheim Sanders at tailback. The Hogs were also big players in the transfer portal.
Their schedule is never easy, but this year’s is at least not as treacherous as last year’s regular season. Sam Pittman isn’t on the hot seat, but another mediocre season will raise some questions around the program.
We’ll see if this revamped coaching staff can get the Razorbacks back to their 2021 form.