When the MLB introduced the Super Wild Card round last year, which introduced two more playoff teams and created a three-game opening-round series, they expected moments like the Mariners making a monumental comeback against the Blue Jays.

The name itself, ‘Wild Card,’ brings out hopes of wacky games, drama-filled endings  and results nobody could have ever predicted. This year, with a rash of starting pitcher injuries across the sport, including stars  like Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara, and Jacob deGrom, offenses were primed to explode. The Wild Card games seemed to be completely up in the air, with no clear favorite aside from perhaps the Phillies. Baseball fans were ready to be reminded of how much they love the sport.

And then the games played themselves out, and the Wild part was nowhere to be found.

These last two days’ games were a movie that unexpectedly flopped after the trailer made it seem like it would be the blockbuster of the year. Fans were left wanting so much more.

The baseball gods seemed to be toying with fans. Games occasionally flirted with moments of tension before retreating into colorless endings, our appetite for drama unrelieved. Even when the Brewers finally loaded the bases in the bottom of the eighth against the D-Backs, reliever Andrew Saalfrank came in and coaxed two weak groundouts to curtail any hope that was still left in Milwaukee. 

There were no games tied after six innings, much less a lead change. Surely, there must’ve at least been some high-scoring barnburners at least? Not even. The highest scoring game was  Arizona’s 6-3 Game 1 victory over the Brewers , and there were six instances of a team scoring a single run or fewer. You know there was a definitive lack of pizzazz when arguably the most exciting moment was this grand slam, courtesy of Phillies’ second baseman Bryson Stott.

Going back to 2022, seven of the first eight Super Wild Card series have been sweeps, with the only exception being last year’s ‘Battle of the Wallet’ between the expensive free agent-filled Padres and Mets. This is not what the MLB hoped they would get from these series, having lucrative financial incentives from putting win-or-go-home game threes in front of the fans.

On the other hand, the gods might just be preparing us for the craziest divisional round of all time. We have an explosive rematch between the Phillies and Braves, along with the mighty Dodgers facing an upstart D-Backs team in the NL. In the AL, the matchup I’m most looking forward to is the Rangers facing an Orioles team that is looking young and dangerous. We’ll get to these games down below. For now, we’ve got a few stories from the first round’s games.

The Streak is Over!

In my playoff preview, I talked about how the Minnesota Twins had the longest losing streak in postseason history of 18 games. I then picked against them, citing the Blue Jays’ offensive potential.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. 

The Twins not only broke the streak, they completely suffocated the Jays’ bats, allowing one run over two games. That’s the first time Minnesota has won a playoff series since 2002. Starters Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray were outstanding, combining to allow only one run in 10.2 innings. The Twins also have some DUDES in the bullpen. We all know about flamethrower Jhoan Duran, but Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax were mighty impressive as well. This team has what it takes to be competitive against Houston.

Rookies Make a Statement

One of the biggest questions that teams have in the postseason is how their rookies will respond to the increased pressure. Three youngsters passed that test with flying colors and played pivotal roles in advancing their teams to the Divisional Round. The Twins’ Royce Lewis put up all the offense for the Twins in Game 1 with two homers, including this blast to help end Minnesota’s streak.

Surefire NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll also continued his outstanding season, going 4-7 with a homer and a 1.615 OPS over the two games. Another surprise was Rangers rookie Evan Carter. His first game with the Rangers wasn’t even a month ago on Sep. 12, but he has burst onto the scene in the playoffs. His calm demeanor and willingness to work at-bats has led him into the good graces of manager Bruce Bochy, and his home run in Game 2 was just the icing on the cake.

These rookies’ performances should be a good sign for Orioles fans, whose season is going to come down to whether their youngsters like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman can continue performing at All-Star levels. 

Where’d the Bats Go?

Pitching usually ramps up in the postseason, where pitchers don’t have to worry about the stress of a 162-game season and all the wear and tear that comes with it. Even so, what we saw in the Wild Card round was nothing short of domination. During the regular season, games featured an average of around 9.2 runs combined. In the eight games we were graciously provided, we saw less than 5.9 runs per game. 

What are some of the potential causes of this? One explanation could just be that teams only used their premier starting pitchers, knowing if they lose even one game, their chances of advancing go down drastically. Hitting with runners in scoring position was also a struggle for the Blue Jays and Rays, as they combined to hit barely above .200 in these scenarios.

Look for offenses to turn it around in the Divisional Round, when pitching staffs are stretched out more and 5 game series breed some familiarity. We also get three of the best offensive teams reintroduced into the fray with the Dodgers, Braves, and Astros. Hopefully, we’ll see some of the fireworks that were mostly absent from the first round.

Now, onto the preview and predictions for the Divisional Round.

Phillies (4) vs. Braves (1) 

The rematch we’ve been waiting for has finally arrived. After Philly took 3 of 4 from Atlanta to send them out of the playoffs, the Braves have been rearing for another chance. Braves’ manager Brian Snitker knows it won’t be easy, though. 

“This team scares me as much as any team in the game, honestly,” he said after a 7-6 victory over the Phillies. 

If this series is anything like last year, we’ve got a good one on our hands. This matchup features the Braves’ record-setting offense, including the first ever 40-70 club member Ronald Acuna Jr, against the Bryce Harper and Trea Turner-led Phillies. The story of the Braves season can be told simply by looking at the record books:

• Ronald Acuna sets a Braves modern-era franchise record with 73 stolen bases
• Matt Olson sets the Braves franchise record for most home runs (54) and RBIs (139)
• Spencer Strider sets the Braves franchise record with 281 strikeouts
• Tied the MLB record for most home runs in a season by a team with 307
• 7 players hit 20 or more home runs, the most in Braves’ history

Good luck trying to slow down that offense. However, if anyone were to accomplish such a feat, it would have to be Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. These two always seem to step up in the postseason, and they did exactly that against the Marlins. In last year’s series, Nola went 6 scoreless innings, while Wheeler had a quality start. The Braves are going to have to find a way to tame that two-headed monster quickly.

The Braves, on the other hand, counter with Strider and Max Fried. Both of these starters have proven to be dominant at times. Fried didn’t have the greatest postseason ever last year, allowing 6 runs (4 earned) in 3.1 innings in a loss. This year, when he’s been healthy, he’s back to being one of the best pitchers in the league with an ERA of 2.55.

Both squads are going to have to figure out how to manage the games where they don’t have one of their horses on the mound. This is where I see the bullpen coming into play. The Phillies’ pen is more experienced, but they both performed around top-10 units in the regular season. 

The difference I see between the two teams is simply offense. Bryce Harper and Co. can be explosive, but they simply don’t match the Braves’ cast of sluggers from top to bottom. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber give them a solid power-speed duo as well, but then again, Acuna is all that in one player. My gut tells me Atlanta is going to go absolutely nuclear this series and strike fear into the hearts of the rest of the league. 

Sweep.

My prediction: Braves over Phillies (3-0)

Diamondbacks (6) vs. Dodgers (2)

Here’s the patented ‘series that should not be close on paper but turns out to be great’ that the MLB script includes every postseason. Last year, it was the Padres and Dodgers, and this year I think Los Angeles is going to be stressing yet again. I’m not saying that Arizona has the same firepower as last year’s Padres team did, but I still don’t trust Dave Roberts and the Dodgers to live up to their potential in the postseason. Aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, where the only fans in attendance were cardboard cutouts, the Dodgers have had one-too-many disappointing exits. 

However, this year may be different. The Dodgers still have MVP candidate Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts leading the lineup. They put up over 150 more runs than the Diamondbacks and went 8-5 against them during the regular season. This is a super deep lineup as well, featuring catcher Will Smith and rejuvenated DH J.D. Martinez. They even turned around longtime defensive specialist Jason Heyward, who had his best season since his Atlanta days with an above-.800 OPS. How do they do it? Other MLB teams would love to know.

The pitching is not like what we’ve come to know from the Dodgers, aside from the ageless Clayton Kershaw. Rookie Bobby Miller and veteran Lance Lynn are both major question marks on this stage. The strength of this pitching staff is in the bullpen, with an ERA of 3.42, good for 3rd in the league. The Diamondbacks will have to capitalize off the starting pitchers if they want to have a chance.

The Diamondbacks did look good against the Brewers, and had the best offensive performance of any team in the first round. They scored enough runs off vaunted starters Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta while adding on against the Brewers’ top-of-the-league bullpen. Corbin Carroll looked like he was made for the moment as detailed above, while Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all provided some offense. 

Aside from starter Zac Gallen, I do worry about the Dodgers having a field day vs Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been sneaky good since they acquired former Seattle closer Paul Sewald, but it may not matter.

Although the Dodgers have had their playoff struggles, I do think they get out of this one with a win, setting up what should be a great NLDS between them and the Braves.

My Prediction: Dodgers over Diamondbacks (3-1)

Rangers (5) vs. Orioles (1)

Can the kids handle the moment? Or will the veterans show them a thing or two? This series has an overarching theme of youth vs. age, as the Rangers are the third-oldest team in the league. This discrepancy can be seen by looking at the offensive stars of each team. Baltimore’s heart of the order is filled with 25 year-old Adley Rutschman and 22 year-old Gunnar Henderson. Meanwhile, Texas’ is filled with veterans Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, both of whom have extensive playoff experience. 

This should be the closest series of the second round on-paper and should be extremely high-scoring as well. Texas handled the Rays’ (albeit injured) arms very nicely, and the Orioles scored the seventh most runs over the course of the regular season. The Rangers do have a slight edge on that side of the ball, with more consistent bats up and down the order. Corey Seager has already shown he is here for the playoffs and is crushing everything in sight. 

Baltimore comes into this postseason winning their last 6 of 8 games, riding a consistent balance between offense and defense. They are the most balanced team in the league, ranking seventh in both categories. They don’t have very many weak spots, and their rotation depth is among the best left in the playoffs. They get starter John Means back for the postseason to go along with Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Gibson. Means is important because he brings a lefty arm to the rotation, and when he’s on, he is elite. 

One matchup I’m looking forward to is seeing how Rangers starters Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, and Dane Dunning fare against this Orioles lineup. Montgomery and Eovaldi completely shut down the Rays’ bats, which is no small feat. Dane Dunning has been solid since coming over from the White Sox, compiling a 3.70 ERA. In front of a more raucous Baltimore crowd, these pitchers might be more prone to mistakes.

Look for this to be a high-scoring series, and one that involves late-inning heroics aplenty. I do think that Texas’ experience gives them the slight upper hand in this one. 

My Prediction: Rangers over Orioles (3-2)

Twins (3) vs. Astros (2)

One major storyline of this series is Twins’ SS Carlos Correa getting a chance to exact revenge on his former team. Correa’s last year hasn’t exactly been smooth, as fans thought he was getting traded in the offseason twice before eventually coming back to Minnesota. He then had one of his worst regular seasons of his career, hitting .230 with a .711 OPS. Of course, none of that stopped him from delivering one of the biggest hits of the Wild Card Round, a go-ahead single in Game 2. 

Now, all eyes lie on Astros starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander. JV is still humming along at the age of 40, and hopes to win his third ring with Houston. Valdez is now looked at as the ace of Houston’s staff, and for good reason. He’s been the best pitcher in the league over the last three years combined. 

The Twins’ staff is among the best in the league as well, however. Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez absolutely shoved, and Bailey Ober, the probable Game 1 starter, has been very good at times.. All the bullpen guys I mentioned earlier are going to be huge in this series.

The Astros’ lineup is also a different beast than what Minnesota faced against the Jays. Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman bring a fearsome core that can compete with anyone. The Twins’ offense didn’t look particularly impressive against Toronto, and will need to be more than just rookie Royce Lewis if they want to have a chance. Houston’s bullpen has also been much better than Minnesota’s statistically, leaving very little room for error if Houston does jump out early. 

Minnesota, it was fun while it lasted, but Houston is still much more talented and will run away with this series in four games. Maybe next year, you can get over the ALDS hump.

My Prediction: Astros over Twins (3-1)

My Record: 3-1

Want to argue with my picks? Have any questions?Email me at [email protected] or @tukkerjacob on Twitter.