The third ranked Ohio State Buckeyes play host to the seventh ranked Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday in the annual clash between Big Ten titans. The odds are stacked against Penn State – Ohio State is favored, has won the last six meetings, and has not lost to Penn State at home since 2011 – but I believe 2023 is the year Penn State’s fortunes change for the better.
Penn State’s defense hasn’t matched up this well with Ohio State’s offense during James Franklin’s tenure. The Nittany Lions boast the No.1 total defense, No. 1 passing defense and No. 2 rushing defense. While Ohio State’s offense ranks respectfully, top 30 in total offense and passing offense, 75th in rushing offense, this is clearly a down year compared to the juggernaut offenses we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Ohio State.
The Buckeyes’ offense is still loaded on paper, but quarterback Kyle McCord is not exactly a field general like Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud before him, who both torched Penn State through the air, something I do not think McCord is capable of. The best wide receiver in college football, Marvin Harrison Jr., still plays for Ohio State. He caught 10 passes for 185 yards against Penn State last year, but if anyone in college football is going to match up with Harrison, it is fellow projected first round pick, cornerback Kalen King. Ohio State’s offense is also dealing with a host of injuries, running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are questionable for Saturday, as well as wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. Penn State’s elite defense should be licking their chops facing an already underperforming offense that may not be at 100%.
On the flip side though, Ohio State’s defense is also among the best in the country, facing a Penn State offense with concerns of its own. The Buckeyes rank No. 6 in total defense, No. 3 in passing defense, and No. 24 in rushing defense. Penn State’s offense is relatively inexperienced. First-year starting quarterback Drew Allar will have to win in Columbus, something that Penn State veterans Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford never accomplished. The Nittany Lions lean on their run game, led by star sophomores Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Buckeyes kept the duo in check last year, allowing just 121 yards on the ground. Additionally, no Penn State receiver has emerged as a number two option behind KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Lambert-Smith has 402 yards this season,but no other Penn State target has over 200.
I have expressed concerns about the Nittany Lions, so what is the key to their success on Saturday?
The great equalizer in any sport, but especially football, is the turnover battle, which I believe Penn State will win – in addition to the game – on Saturday. Penn State currently ranks second in college football with a +10 turnover margin, and are fourth in college football with 13 defensive takeaways. While Drew Allar is inexperienced, he is the only quarterback in the Power 5 yet to throw an interception this season. Kyle McCord has protected the ball well in his own right, but Penn State leads the nation in sacks and can speed up McCord’s process, giving their opportunistic secondary chances to force turnovers.
This game has so many parallels to the teams’ 2008 matchup where Penn State won in Columbus, 13-6. Daryll Clark, like Drew Allar, was a first year starter hailing from the state of Ohio who did just enough to defeat the Buckeyes. Penn State leaned on a stellar defensive performance highlighted by two key turnovers by Ohio State superstar quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Pryor, like current Ohio State superstar Marvin Harrison Jr., spurned Penn State for the Buckeyes as a recruit despite being from Pennsylvania. Like 2008, it’s certain that we are in for a defensive slugfest that will come down to the wire.
James Franklin is 2-11 on the road against top 25 teams, 0-9 on the road against top 10 teams, 1-8 against Ohio State, 1-11 against top 5 teams, and has never won in Columbus.
The trend gets bucked on Saturday.
My Prediction: Penn State 20, Ohio State 17