The Texas Rangers are World Series Champions. The 2023 MLB season has come to a close. That means a long 142 days until opening day. So what now? If you’re anything like me, the only thing getting you through the offseason is the wild list of free agents on the market right now. The Chicago Cubs kicked it off and shocked the world by hiring the coveted Craig Counsell, in turn firing longtime manager David Ross. There’s four months of behind the scenes action ahead of us, and with this opening statement from the Cubs, it’s looking like an exciting and aggressive offseason. It’s impossible to predict exactly what’s going to happen, but what else are we supposed to do while we wait?
Here’s what we know: Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray all received qualifying offers. Marcus Stroman opted out of his club option. Tim Anderson, Liam Hendriks, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Lance Lynn were all declined their club options. These names and many others make up a dazzling list of free agents that many teams are desperate for. What should we expect?
Shohei Ohtani
The most tantalizing name on the list is Shohei Ohtani. In the past, Ohtani has expressed that he wants to be on a winning team, a luxury he can definitely afford. This year with the Angels, he put up 44 home runs while slashing .304/.412/.654, a slugging percentage that topped the league. He posted a 3.14 ERA and pitched 167 strikeouts. A player with this resume does not come cheap. The Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Padres and Mariners are the main teams that have expressed interest in spending money on him so far, though more are expected to. Of these teams, the Dodgers were the only ones to make a postseason appearance this year. They are also betting favorites as Ohtani’s landing spot. While LA is the most likely place for him, there is something to be said about the Mariners as Ohtani has expressed that Ichiro is his biggest hero and the guy he’s always looked up to. They also just barely missed the postseason this year.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Any club that’s looking for a pitcher to sit atop their rotation is looking at Yoshinobu Yamamoto. In Japan this year, he posted a 1.21 ERA with a 4.4% walk rate, about half the MLB’s current average. Arguably the most sought after pitcher this offseason, it’s hard to place Yamamoto. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, and Tigers are all expected to make him an offer. After Kodai Senga’s success, it’s pretty safe to say the Mets would be willing to spend big for him (especially amidst Pete Alonso trade rumors), but Domingo Germán and Marcus Stroman leaving their clubs makes the Yankees and Cubs look like real contenders.
Blake Snell
Back in the States, Blake Snell is another pitcher that every team in need of an ace has their eye on. The Cy Young finalist led the league with his 2.25 ERA and .181 BAA. He also struck out 234 batters, the third most in the league. Snell is a proven veteran that would benefit younger teams with pitching needs, particularly the Orioles. If he doesn’t end up there, he might be key in filling the hole Adam Wainwright left on the Cardinals’ rotation.
Josh Hader
Like Blake Snell, Josh Hader received a qualifying offer from the Padres and like Blake Snell, he probably won’t take it. The star reliever posted a 1.28 ERA and a .163 BAA, the second and third lowest by relievers in the league, respectively. There are a lot of strong starting pitchers entering free agency, but Hader stands out entirely among a shorter list of strong relief pitchers entering free agency. Hader is going to go to a club with big bullpen needs that is willing to pay big bucks. The Yankees look like the strongest fit, followed by the Cubs, Rangers and Orioles.
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger is arguably, after Shohei Ohtani, the second biggest name on this list. Flashbacks of 2019 came to everyone’s mind watching him on the Cubs, but after declining his mutual option, he could land anywhere. Bringing in Craig Counsell shows the Cubs are looking to spend big this offseason, and there’s a real chance that means bringing back their biggest star of the season. However, the Yankees would be my next best guess, with the Blue Jays right after. Yankees were the biggest free agent spenders last year, and my guess is they’ll pull in a few big names this year as well. Whether Bellinger is one of them, we have yet to see.
Bonus: Juan Soto trade?
We talked about the Yankees being big spenders. We talked about the Padres likely letting Snell and Hader go. Behind the Mets, the Padres had the largest payroll of the 2023 season and after missing the playoffs, it seems like both are set for a rebuild. The Yankees have missed the playoffs for the second time in 19 years and will likely do anything (or buy anyone) to make sure it doesn’t happen again in 2024. With young stars Anthony Volpe and Jason Dominguez, the Yankees would probably be willing to give up a few farm pieces to bulk their roster up. If the Yankees aren’t trading for him though, other teams with younger players who need some veteran bulking like the Diamondbacks, Reds, or Mariners will probably be interested in a big trade.