The upstart, young and very talented Baltimore Orioles eclipsed 100 wins in 2023. The Tampa Bay Rays made the playoffs with 99 wins. The Alek Manoah-less Toronto Blue Jays finished in the final wild card spot with 89 wins.
The New York Yankees were only one game over .500 and were dangerously close to having their first sub .500 season since 1992.
The Boston Red Sox struggled to find their footing, finishing with a division worst 78 wins.
Team Previews
Baltimore Orioles 2023 record: 101-61
The Orioles not only had a division leading 101 wins in 2023, Baltimore had an American League leading 101 wins last season.
Key Departures
The Orioles have been in trade talks for starting pitching help since the 2023 deadline and two offseason departures that could be key for the 2023 season are Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty.
In 33 games last year with Baltimore, Gibson hurled 192 innings with a 4.73 ERA, he finished the season with a 15-9 record.
Jack Flaherty spent last season between St. Louis and Baltimore. After getting traded at the deadline, Flaherty pitched in nine games, while starting in seven, with a 6.75 ERA.
Key Additions
The Orioles focused more on pitching help this offseason adding a former Cy Young and a veteran closer.
Baltimore acquired Corbin Burnes in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason. The 2021 Cy Young is under contract for the 2024 season with no following options.
Burnes finished with a 3.39 ERA in 193.2 innings in 2023 in Milwaukee.
Craig Kimbrel and the Orioles came to an agreement this offseason to have former rookie of the year in Camden Yards for the 2024 season and a following club option.
Kimbrel pitched in 71 games last season in Philadelphia with a 3.26 ERA and 23 saves.
Prognosis
Fangraphs projects 84.2 wins and a third-place finish in the division for the Baltimore Orioles. I could not disagree more, this team took their licks in the postseason last year, but they’ve added great pitching and have the chance to make a deep run into the postseason. I have them closer to 93 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays 2023 record: 99-63
The Rays were swept by the eventual World Series champs in the Wild Card round last season. Tampa Bay had nothing short of controversy last season as well.
Key Departures
Although Wander Franco is contracted through 2033, he was a no show for report day in Spring Training amid an investigation.
Franco played 112 games last season, totalling 124 hits, a .281 batting average and a .344 on-base percentage.
The Dodgers traded for Tyler Glasnow this offseason and then extended him until 2027 with a club option for the 2028 season. The deal is worth $136 million.
In 21 games last season, Glasnow pitched in 120 innings with a 3.53 ERA and 162 strikeouts.
The Rays also lose a veteran behind the plate. Christian Bethancourt was claimed by the Cleveland Guardians in November and was then traded to the Miami Marlins in December.
Bethancourt played in 104 games last season, hitting 11 home runs, a .225 batting average and 33 RBIs.
Key Additions
Aaron Civale split his time last season between Cleveland and Tampa Bay. In total, Civale finished with a 3.46 ERA in 122.1 innings. In his time in Cleveland last season, Civale had a 2.34 ERA compared to his 5.36 in Tampa Bay.
With a full season in Tampa Bay, Civale could be poised to bring his ERA back down to Earth.
Ryan Pepiot was a part of the Glasnow trade with the Dodgers.
Pepiot has only pitched in 17 games in his two-year career. He had a 2.14 ERA in 2023 in 42 innings.
The Rays have recently added Amed Rosario from free agency with a one-year $1.5 million deal.
Rosario split his time last year between Cleveland and the Los Angeles Dodgers, he finished with a .263 batting average and 58 RBIs.
Prognosis
Fangraphs has the Rays slated to win 85.6 games this season and finish second in the division. I could see this team being around this win total, but I would see them more as third in the division.
Toronto Blue Jays 2023 record: 89-73
The 2023 Blue Jays season was cut short in the AL Wild Card round by the Minnesota Twins. The Blue Jays were just one win short of 90 wins.
Key Departures
Matt Chapman still has not been re-signed by the Blue Jays and we have reached Spring Training.
In 140 games in 2023, Chapman batted .240 with 17 home runs and 54 RBIs.
The Philadelphia Phillies signed Whit Merrifield to a one-year $8 million deal with a club option in 2025.
Merrifield was an All-Star in 2023, with a .272 batting average in 145 games.
Key Additions
The Blue Jays signed Justin Turner to a one-year $13 million deal this offseason.
Turner is a 15 year veteran who spent last season in Boston. He finished with a .276 batting average and a .345 on-base percentage in 146 games.
The Blue Jays also signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year $15 million deal.
Kiner-Falefa spent his last two seasons with the New York Yankees. In 2023, Kiner-Falefa finished with a .242 batting average and .306 on-base percentage.
Prognosis
Fangraphs projects the Blue Jays to finish fourth in the AL East with 83.4 wins. I think this is a fair projection, slightly above .500, slightly out of the postseason for the Blue Jays in 2024.
New York Yankees 2023 record 82-80
The Yankees were dangerously close to finishing under .500 for the first time since 1992 last season. The Yankees are poised to, for lack of a better set of terms, figure it out this season.
Key departures
Luis Severino, Kyle Higashioka, Bader
Luis Severino signed with a new team in the offseason, luckily he won’t have to move cities. Severino signed a one-year $13 million deal with the New York Mets.
In 19 games, Severino had a 6.65 ERA across 89.1 innings in 2023.
In a deal that brought Juan Soto to Yankee Stadium, Kyle Higashioka was traded to the San Diego Padres.
Higashioka spent all of his seven seasons in New York. In 2023, he hit 10 home runs and finished with a .236 batting average.
Harrison Bader’s offseason move was also minimal after he signed a one-year $10 million deal with the Mets.
Bader was traded from New York to Cincinnati mid-season last year. He had a .240 batting average with the Yankees in 2023.
Key Additions
In the blockbuster trade of the offseason, Juan Soto was traded to the Yankees along with Trent Grisham.
Soto played all 162 games last year for the Padres, hitting 35 home runs and 109 RBIs. Soto also led the league in walks with 132.
Grisham is a two-time Gold Glove recipient. In 2023, Grisham had an on-base percentage of .315.
The Boston Red Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the Yankees in December.
Verdugo spent the last four seasons with Boston. In 2023, Verdugo hit .264.
Prognosis
Fangraphs slates the Yankees as division winners with 88 wins. I agree on the division winner aspect, but I think the 2024 Yankees creep closer to the 100 win mark.
Boston Red Sox 2023 record: 78-84
The Red Sox were the only team in the AL East to not finish above .500 in 2023. The Red Sox will have a hard time improving on their season last year.
Key Departures
Chris Sale was traded to the Atlanta Braves and in return the Red Sox received a plethora of players.
Sale pitched in 20 games in 2023 and finished with a 4.30 ERA and 106 ERA+ over 102.2 innings.
Justin Turner stays in the division as he heads to Toronto.
In 2023, Turner hit .276 and 23 home runs throughout 146 games in Boston.
Alex Verdugo was traded to the Yankees in December.
Verdugo hit .264, an on-base percentage of .324 and 13 home runs in 2023.
Key Additions
The Red Sox tried to fill the Chris Sale sized hole with another former White Sox pitcher in Lucas Giolito.
Giolito played for three teams in 2023: the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians. In total, he had a 4.88 ERA in 184.1 innings throughout a league high 33 games started in 2023.
As a part of the Chris Sale deal, Vaughn Grissom packed his bags and headed to Boston.
Grissom lost the starting shortstop job in Atlanta last year to Orlando Arcia, Grissom only played in 23 games.
Grissom’s sophomore year ended with a .280 batting average in 75 at-bats.
Prognosis
Fangraphs projects a last place finish in the AL East for Boston with 79.6 wins. I agree with this, I find it hard to believe this team finishes above .500, and anywhere outside of the last spot.
For a more in depth analysis tune into The Chatting Average with Adam Busack and myself, Jon Lieber, at 11 a.m. this Friday, with special guests Wendell Shepherd and Kate Cassady.