Overview

The Horizon League will easily make for one of the more interesting tournaments this year on the women’s side. The league has turned into a two team race, with the Green Bay Phoenix and Cleveland State Vikings emerging as the teams to beat. Uncharacteristically for a mid-major conference, the Horizon League could garner two bids in the NCAA Tournament.

Green Bay opened the season as favorites to win the league and were the consensus top team in the Horizon League preseason poll. The Phoenix did their work early with a road win against No. 22 Creighton in mid-November, and then a holiday tournament win against No. 23 Washington State a week later. They opened conference play winning 10 of their first 11 games before a 23 point loss at Cleveland State in early February. It is the Vikings who have emerged as the favorite to win the conference over the last month, winning 13 of 14 since their loss at Green Bay just before New Year’s Day. Despite losing Horizon League preseason player of year and 20-PPG scorer Destiny Leo to a season-ending leg injury in mid-December, the Vikings have found themselves in control of the Horizon League.

However, given the quality resume-building wins that Green Bay collected in November, if Cleveland State is able to carry this momentum to a conference tournament title, the Horizon League could turn into a two-bid conference.

Favorite: Cleveland State

Even after losing Leo for the year, Cleveland State has the best scoring offense in the league for the second straight year. This has largely come from a dynamic veteran backcourt of Mickayla Perdue (16.9 PPG) and Colbi Maples (15.9 PPG), who are both top-five scorers in the conference. Despite this offensive firepower, the Vikings have gotten beat up on the boards occasionally. They are third in the conference in rebounding margin, so it’s not an immediate cause for concern, but in conference play they have grabbed less than 30 rebounds three times, losing two of those games. This includes their most recent loss, a 13-point road defeat against a middling Detroit Mercy team where the Vikings grabbed only 26 rebounds.

Cleveland State closes the season with three games against sub-.500 teams, and if they win out, will clinch a share of the regular season title. Horizon League tiebreaker policies currently favor Green Bay if they win out as well, and the Phoenix would get the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.

Dark Horse: Northern Kentucky

If you’re looking for a real out of the blue team, it could be Northern Kentucky. The Norse were the No. 5 seed last season and made it to the semifinals, pushing eventual champion Cleveland State to overtime. Northern Kentucky lost three of its five starters from that championship game and retooled the rest of the roster, highlighted by freshman center Carter McCray. McCray has made an instant impact, starting all 26 games so far this season and ranks fifth in the conference in points per game and first in rebounds per game.

The Norse started the season slowly, losing 13 of their first 15 games, including their first six conference games. Since mid-January, they appear to have turned a corner, playing better than .500 basketball over the past month and sit at eighth in the conference. It would be a tough road, but the Norse could make a tournament push in a very top-heavy conference, and potentially make things even more interesting.

Prediction: Cleveland State over Green Bay

Despite everything that could happen with teams three through 11 in early March, it’s really been these two teams the whole season, and Cleveland State has the balance and experience to win its second consecutive Horizon League title. Green Bay has a light schedule remaining; only one of their four remaining opponents is above 0.500 in conference play. Barring a huge stumble by the Phoenix over the last week and a half of the regular season, they should find themselves dancing in March even if they don’t win the tournament.

Charlie Creme Bracketology:

Green Bay: Last four byes, No. 10 seed in the Oregon State (Corvallis) pod.

Cleveland State: Automatic qualifier, No. 13 seed in the LSU (Baton Rouge) pod.