Overview:
The West Coast Conference men’s tournament bracket, on the surface, is one of the more enigmatic designs you’ll ever see. It looks similar to the old WNBA tournament bracket, where multiple teams received byes deep into the tournament. In the WCC, the No.9 and 8 seeds who play in the opening round of the tourney must win five games if they want to dance, while the top two seeds only need to win two. This disparity is more drastic than any other conference tournament in the country. For example, the Big Ten and SEC conferences both have tournaments with teams receiving double byes, but those teams still have to win three games with the lowest seeds needing five. For the third year in a row, No. 1 seed Saint Mary’s and No. 2 seed Gonzaga earned the privilege of receiving these ‘triple byes.’
This tournament setup may seem confusing, but it’s in place for one very good reason: prioritizing the regular season. If your team is good enough to make it to the top of the standings over the course of a full season, the WCC believes you should have a much easier path to the conference tournament championship, and in turn, the NCAA Tournament.
However, neither the Gaels nor the Bulldogs are going to need the help of an automatic bid in order to dance this year. Currently, Saint Mary’s is ranked No. 17 in the AP poll, while Gonzaga sits at No. 23. Historically, this conference tournament has not been known for its parity; since the year 2000, only one team has won it aside from these two teams. This year figures to be more of the same, as Gonzaga looks to win its fifth straight tournament championship and its 11th in 12 years. However, coach Randy Bennett and the Gaels have been the best team in the conference throughout the year, and look to get over the Bulldog hump for the first time since 2019.
*All odds courtesy of DraftKings
Favorite: Gonzaga -115 (24-6, 14-2 WCC)
Somehow, even in Gonzaga’s worst regular season since the 2015-16 season, the Bulldogs are still the odds-on favorite to win the tournament yet again. It was a bit of an uncharacteristically slow start for Mark Few’s team this season, albeit playing one of the nation’s toughest non-conference schedules as per usual. The Zags dropped games to eventual No. 1 seeds Purdue and UConn, along with last year’s national championship runner-up in San Diego State. They grabbedbig Quad 1 victory on the road against Kentucky in the middle of the year, but overall had a disappointing noncon compared to their standards.
In-conference was more of the same, mostly dominating opponents except for Saint Mary’s. This trend was only bucked in a one-point loss to Santa Clara early in the conference slate, which at the time pushed Gonzaga out of the top 25. The Bulldogs’ 24-year tournament streak looked like it could potentially be in jeopardy at times during the year, especially after the Santa Clara loss. Mark Few’s team then decided to rally off 13 wins in 14 games, the latest being the most important of all, a win in Moraga over the Gaelswho were previously undefeated in conference. The Zags are back up to a 6 seed in the latest bracketology and figure to remain there barring a disastrous loss in the WCC tourney.
Transfers tell a large portion of Gonzaga’s story this season. Graham Ike (16.9 PPG) leads the team in scoring and rebounding after coming over from Wyoming in the offseason. Ryan Nembhard, a Creighton transfer, is the point man for the Zags and tops the team in assists. The rest of the team consists of experienced guards and young big men. Anton Watson and Nolan Hickman took over most of the scoring load after Julian Strawther left for the NBA Draft, while redshirt freshman Braden Huff has played some good minutes as the stretch 5.
If Gonzaga is going to keep its WCC tournament streak alive, it will have to run its offense through those two guards and Ike, and likely battle Saint Mary’s enough down low to keep them in check.
Right There: Saint Mary’s +105 (24-7, 15-1 WCC)
As the No. 1 seed entering the conference tournament, the Gaels have to feel slightly disrespected that the Zags are still favored to win it all. However, Randy Bennett should still feel good about where this team is entering March after a horrific start to the season. Saint Mary’s lost SIX non-conference matchups, including two killer Quad 3 losses at home against Weber State and Missouri State. Other damaging losses came against Xavier and Utah, and the combination of all those losses had many fans speculating the WCC would be a one bid league for the first time in quite awhile.
Whatever postgame speech (or lack thereof) Bennett instilled in his team after the Missouri State game worked to perfection. The Gaels reeled off sixteen consecutive victories, including a win over Gonzaga at the Kennel, which just doesn’t happen. The last time Saint Mary’s defeated their rivals in Spokane was during the 2017-18 season. They looked primed to go undefeated in conference play for the first time in school history if they could just complete the season sweep over the Bulldogs at home. They could not. Saint Mary’s was outplayed throughout the game with an offense that looked like it was running on fumes. It will be exciting to see what Bennett has in store for the Zags the third time around.
The Gaels are by design a slower-paced team. Their style is to grind you down on defense, and rip your soul out on the offensive end with long, drawn-out possessions. This isn’t quite like a Virginia basketball style, thankfully, but some of those Tony Bennett characteristics are there. Center Mitchell Saxen (11.5 PPG) and guard Aidan Mahaney (13.7 PPG) are once again centerpieces, but one key area of improvement has been junior PG Augustas Marciulionis (12.4 PPG). He takes care of the ball with an almost 3-1 assist to turnover ratio, and shoots a respectable 35% from deep. He and Mahaney will need to carry even more of the load throughout March if breakout sophomore forward Joshua Jefferson’s injury keeps him sidelined any longer.
Dark Horse: San Francisco +1200 (22-9, 11-5 WCC)
The task of picking a dark horse in the West Coast Conference is a fruitless one. It comes down to ‘which team aside from Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga has the best chance of taking one of them down in the tournament?’ This year, that answer is undoubtedly the Dons. It’s difficult to officially announce the No. 3 seed as a dark horse, but those +1200 odds certainly fit the bill of one. The Dons came agonizingly close to defeating both the Zags in Spokane and the Gaels in Moraga, losing both those games by five and four, respectively.
San Francisco’s roster is full of shifty guards spaced around 6 ‘8 F Jonathan Mogbo, who leads the team at 14.7 points per game. The best of the bunch is Marcus Williams, who nearly willed the Dons to the upset over Saint Mary’s by scoring 26 of the team’s 66. Along with Williams, Chris Gerlufsen’s team relies on sharpshooting forward Ndewedo Newbury and guard Malik Thomas, who both shoot over 38% from behind the arc.
Do I think this team will pull an upset in the semifinals? No. But I do think they have the best chance out of anyone else at even staying close.
My Prediction: Gonzaga over Saint Mary’s
The Zags are playing their best ball at the right time, and I think they will roll to a fifth straight tournament championship. Saint Mary’s has just not been the same since losing Jefferson, and I don’t expect that to change in time. This tournament may not be the most competitive all the way through, but the championship game will be must-watch television once again.