Every year, for one weekend at the beginning of March, St. Louis becomes the epicenter of the Missouri Valley Conference . Its conference tournament , better known as  “Arch Madness”, is consistently one of the most entertaining, dramatic and high-quality mid-major tournaments in the country. Everything about the MVC y from the coaches to the players to the fans makes the weekend an incredible experience.

This year is no different;in fact, I’d argue that it’s even better than last year. The MVC currently ranks as a Top 10 conference in the country on KenPom, and while the top of the league has been great, the bottom of the league is dangerous as well . Few conferences  this season can confidently say its  tournament will feature competitive games on each day, but the MVC certainly can. They have elite teams, worthy competitors and national storylines that college basketball fans across the country will be following all weekend.

Favorites:

Drake

With Indiana State stepping into the national spotlight this season, many have forgotten about the reigning MVC Tournament champs. Drake has been rolling down the stretch, winning seven of its last eight games  to close the regular season. Tucker DeVries, the now two-time Larry Bird Award winner for (quickly explain the award), has gotten even better this season with more responsibilities following the departures of (list players). His scoring, rebounding and passing have all improved; should Drake make it to the Big Dance, DeVries will be leading the charge for his squad that almost knocked off Miami (FL), who eventually made the Final Four.

The Bulldogs’ supporting cast around DeVries has also been unexpectedly strong r. Atin Wright, Kevin Overton and Darnell Brodie all are averaging double-figures in scoring on efficient shooting splits. Overton in particular would have my vote for MVC Freshman of the Year.

Drake finished the MVC regular season at 16-4, just one game behind Indiana State (who they split with). However, since the start of February, the Bulldogs have been just as good as Indiana State and actually are three spots ahead of them on BartTorvik. Even though they didn’t win the league or even get a share of the title, I truly believe this is a 1A/1B situation at the top of the league.

Drake will win Arch Madness if…

They can keep teams out of the lane. Drake is not a super athletic team on the interior, which has caused its  rim protection to become an area of weakness. The Bulldogs will have to be effective defending the 3-point line and stopping drives at the point of attack.

Indiana State

The Sycamores have become one of the most likable teams in the country this season for a plethora of reasons. As great as MVC Coach of the Year Josh Schertz has been this year, his work in the off-season putting together this roster might have been even more impressive. Indiana State is consistently so fun to watch because of its incredible half-court offense. The Sycamores play a ton of 5-out offense, which gives them so much space for their actions.

Robbie Avila is as skilled of a big man as they come. The runner-up for the Larry Bird Trophy is a great passer, is a near 40 percent  3-point shooter and is efficient inside the arc too.

Around Avila, Schertz filled out his roster with fast and versatile guards like Isaiah Swope and Ryan Conwell in addition to bringing back Julian Larry and Jayson Kent. Indiana State’s problems, however, come behind the five starters. While Drake is relatively thin on their bench, Indiana State is 358th in the country in bench minutes, which could easily hurt them in the postseason.

When comparing Indiana State and Drake’s tournament draws, I do think Drake got the better draw. The Sycamores will get the winner of Murray State or Missouri State in the quarterfinals and went 4-0 against those teams this season. However, their semifinal matchup could get tricky. We’ll get into Belmont and Northern Iowa shortly, but those two teams have been  playing some very good basketball down the stretch.

Indiana State will win Arch Madness if…

They can take care of business in the earlier rounds. It has been well-documented that Indiana State is banged up, and I  already mentioned  how thin their bench is. Both Swope and Kent missed a game in the final stretch of the season, and Swope is going to have knee surgery after the season for (list the injury here). It would be super beneficial to the Sycamores if they could get a comfortable win in their quarterfinal and maybe even their semifinal so they are well-rested for a likely clash of titans against Drake.

Second-Tier Contenders

Belmont

It’s not an exaggeration to say that Belmont has been playing better than anyone in the MVC over the last month. Since Feb. 1, BartTorvik has Belmont as the 43rd best team in the country. That tops the conference, with Drake and Indiana State coming in behind the Bruins at 57th and 60th, respectively.

The reason for this is the return of point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie. Gillespie was named Second Team All-MVC and very well could’ve been first team had he not missed eight games in the middle of conference play. Since Gillespie’s return to the starting lineup, Belmont has won seven of eight games  to close the regular season, with its only loss being to Drake.

Adding Gillespie back to pair with Cade Tyson and Malik Dia makes the Bruins’ big three  as good as any  in the conference. I think Tyson should’ve been a first team all-league player,and Dia is the highest usage player in the entire country.

Belmont will win Arch Madness if…

As Casey Alexander told me in an interview last Friday, Belmont will win the tournament this weekend if they defend. The Bruins have the 4th best defense in conference play, but are three points worse per 100 possessions than Drake, who is in third. While this is a concern of Coach Alexander’s, it should be noted that Belmont has jumped nearly 70 spots in adjusted defensive efficiency in the last month.

Bradley

Analytically, Brian Wardle’s group has had a better season than a year ago, but at Bradley, the standard is winning league and tournament championships, which the Braves have done just twice in the 21st century. The Braves aren’t in a bad spot, as they have a very good top four, but the offense certainly needs to be better than it has been in the last month.

Bradley is super intriguing from an X’s and O’s perspective on the defensive end because Malevy Leons and Darius Hannah are two of the more switchable bigs you will find at the mid-major level. Duke Deen and Connor Hickman have also formed a really good backcourt pairing this season.

My major question with Bradley is this: can they hang with the big boys? The Braves finished 0-4 this year against Indiana State and Drake, but  every game was within single digits. It’s hard to tell if Bradley is right there with those teams or if they simply don’t have enough firepower to beat those teams barring an off night.

Bradley will win Arch Madness if…

They can take care of the ball. The Braves averaged 14.3 turnovers in their four losses that came in February and March. Against elite offensive teams like Indiana State and Drake, those teams will capitalize if you’re giving away possessions. That falls on Deen and Hickman to find a happy medium between making plays while also trying not to do too much.

Sleepers

Northern Iowa

Ben Jacobson is the most accomplished coach in the MVC and has coached in so many big games in his almost 20 seasons as UNI’s head coach. Nate Heise and Tytan Anderson have both had great years, but Bowen Born is the guy that needs to play well for the Panthers to make a serious run at an MVC title .

Illinois State

The Redbirds aren’t so much a sleeper to win the tournament, but rather a team that could make some noise depending on health. Darius Burford hasn’t been in the lineup since the beginning of February, but Illinois State was still able to win four of six  to end the season without him. Adding Burford as another lead guard option next to blooming freshman Johnny Kinziger could be a challenge for Drake in Round 2.

Two-Bid Valley? Three-Bid Valley?

The concept of the MVC being a multi-bid league has been discussed for months. The truth at this point is even if Indiana State and Drake meet in the final, we won’t truly know if we have a bid-steal scenario until Selection Sunday because neither team is safely in the NCAA Tournament field as an at-large.

What has become super intriguing is that Drake has gotten some help from its opponents and played well enough to the point where they have worked their way into the bubble picture. As of Wednesday morning, the Bulldogs were appearing in the field of 10/113 brackets on Bracket Matrix. The Bulldogs won’t get any quad one opportunities this week that won’t involve securing an auto bid, but if Drake makes  the final and the bubble teams start to fold over the ensuing week and change , a two-bid Valley (and maybe a three bid Valley) could become more of a possibility.

Tournament Predictions:

First Round:

8 Murray State > 9 Missouri State

5 Belmont > 12 Valparaiso

7 Illinois State < 10 Evansville

6 Southern Illinois > 11 Illinois-Chicago

Quarterfinals:

1 Indiana State > 8 Murray State

4 Northern Iowa < 5 Belmont

2 Drake > 10 Evansville

3 Bradley > 6 Southern Illinois

Semifinals:

1 Indiana State < 5 Belmont

2 Drake > 3 Bradley

Championship:

5 Belmont < 2 Drake