The Atlantic 10 conference tournament kicks off in Brooklyn on Tuesday, when La Salle takes on George Washington.
Richmond and Loyola Chicago both went 15-3 in conference play and earned a split of the regular season championship. However, both of those teams will need to win the A-10 tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.
The only team from the A-10 likely to get an at-large bid into the Big Dance is Dayton. The flyers are impressively ranked 29th by KenPom and 23rd by the AP Poll. They also boast three Quad One wins and zero Quad 3/4 losses. Let’s break these favorites down team by team.
Richmond Spiders
Richmond is the one seed in this tournament, but the Spiders come into Brooklyn stumbling a little bit after they were pummeled by George Mason in their regular-season finale. They also are looking for more production from their star guard Jordan King, who averages 19 points per game but has struggled lately with just 10 combined points in his last two games. King’s supporting cast includes seven-footer Neal Quinn, and guard DeLonnie Hunt. Quinn and Hunt both average double-digit points on the season and will be vital for the Spiders in Brooklyn. The Spiders have been successful against the top teams in the conference too, defeating Dayton and Loyola, but they also fell to UMass by 10 at home.
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
The Ramblers are no stranger to March or the NCAA Tournament. You may remember their Cinderella run to the final four in 2018, and Sister Jean & Co. will be hoping for a similar result this year and. Loyola could be the hottest team in the A-10, as the Ramblers have won nine of their last 10, including a comeback win against Dayton. Loyola does not have one star player, but plenty of players that chip in offensively in different ways. Braden Norris and Jayden Dawson both contribute with the three-ball, with both shooting over 40 percent from behind the arc.
The real star scorers of this team, however, are Phillip Alston and Des Watson. Alston does most of his scoring inside the three-point line and averages about 12 points per game. Alston, however, is the Ramblers’ go-to guy. He averages 13 points per game and shoots 40 percent from three. Watson is a streaky scorer and has the ability to go off for 20-plus points a night, but has also had multiple games where he is inefficient and has been held to single-digits. If the Ramblers can get consistent output from Watson, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
Dayton Flyers
The best team in the A-10 and the only one most likely locked into the NCAA tournament, the Flyers are the No. 3- seed after a 14-4 conference record and are led by future NBA draft pick, DaRon Holmes II. Holmes will most likely be named the A-10 Player of the Year and comes into the tournament averaging 20 points and eight rebounds per game. Nate Santos also contributes all over for the Flyers, averaging 12 points and six rebounds per game. The biggest news for the Flyers is that sophomore guard, Javon Bennett, who has been dealing with a thumb injury as of late, will be healthy. Bennett is an important piece for the Flyers, as he averages nine points and three assists. Dayton is the deepest team in the league, and Bennett’s availability only helps that.
Massachusetts Minutemen
The Minutemen are the sleeper team in this year’s tournament and are quietly having their best season in years. They enter Brooklyn with an 11-7 conference record and have possibly the best 1-2 punch in the conference. Josh Cohen and Matt Cross have been handfuls for opposing teams defenses all year and are both averaging 16 points per game this season. Both are forwards who do most of their scoring inside the paint, and because of that, UMass relies on Rashool Diggins to space the floor. Diggins is the best shooter on the team and averages 12 points per game. If the Minutemen want to play spoiler and punch their ticket to the big dance, Diggins will be vital.
Three players to highlight from struggling teams are James Bishop IV (George Washington), Keyshawn Hall (George Mason) and Gibson Jimmerson (Saint Louis). Bishop averages 18 points per game and is the third leading scorer in the conference. His Patriots come in as the No. 8- seed and, if they get past Saint Joseph’s, will be looking to upset the top-seeded Spiders.
Bishop is the fourth-leading scorer in the conference, but George Washington is the worst team in the A-10, and I do not see any hope for them to advance in the tournament. Gibson Jimmerson recently broke the three-point record at SLU and is one of the best shooters in the country. His Billikens are playing better basketball as of late, winning three of their last five, and could be dangerous for a higher seed if they go on a run.
Predictions
From the top side of the bracket, I am predicting the upset of the tournament, as I think George Mason knocks off top-seeded Richmond, leaving an easier path for UMass, who finds its way into the final. Loyola and Dayton will rematch in an epic semifinal that will see the Ramblers emerge victorious. That will leave a rematch of an amazing Jan. 17 game that saw Loyola knock off UMass 79-78. In that game, Phillip Alston had 23 points to lead Loyola to victory, and I am predicting much of the same this time around. The Ramblers will win a close one and advance to the NCAA Tournament, and Alston will be named tournament MVP.