Coming to the close of what will be another single-bid season, the Patriot League enters its conference tournament with no clear winner in sight. Bucknell and American both finished 13-5 in conference play, while Army, Boston University, Colgate, and Navy each notched 10 wins. Only three teams finished with a positive net rating; Bucknell (+1.4), Navy (+1.1), and American (+0.6).
You might be asking, “Now, what is net rating and why should I care?” Well, before we get any further, here’s a brief overview of the various metrics and terminology used in this article:
ORtg: Offensive Rating; for players it is points produced per 100 possessions, while for schools it is points scored per 100 possessions.
DRtg: Defensive Rating; points allowed per 100 possessions.
NRtg: Net Rating; point differential per 100 possessions.
TS%: True Shooting Percentage; a measure of shooting percentage that gives more weight to three pointers, also considers free throws.
Player statistics will be depicted as (PPG/RPG/APG) rounded to the nearest whole number.
The official Patriot League Men’s Basketball Championship seeding is:
1. Bucknell
2. American
3. Colgate
4. Boston University
5. Navy
6. Army
7. Lafayette
8. Loyola Maryland
9. Lehigh
10. Holy Cross
Favorites
Bucknell: 17-14 (13-5)
Coach John Griffin is looking to break a six-season absence from March Madness and this year is his best chance since 2018. One of three teams to finish the year with a positive net rating at +0.6, the Bison put up a 13-5 conference record en route to securing the top seed in the conference tournament.
The Bison are anchored by 7’0 junior Noah Williamson (17/8/2 on 59% TS%) who is coming into tournament play blazing hot. The big man has scored 22 or more points in three of his last four games, including four made threes Feb. 12 against Boston University. Paired with senior guard Josh Bascoe (16/4/4), the two present a major issue for defenses. Bascoe has stepped into his role in his senior season, elevating his scoring from 10 to 16 points per game while maintaining his 43% clip from the field.
The advanced metrics would suggest that Bucknell’s success is mostly phony, but 13-5 in conference play is 13-5 in conference play no matter what filter you see it through. Griffin has enough coaching experience and the personnel to take this team dancing again.
American: 19-12 (13-5)
The Eagles are heading into the conference tournament 3-2 in their last five contests. The two losses are what is most concerning; they were to Army and Navy, two teams the Eagles will come up against in tournament play. Duane Simpkins’ Eagles are strong on the defensive end of the court, only giving up 67.9 points per game, good for a 103.8 defensive rating.
The Eagles boast a powerful scoring quartet in forwards Matt Rogers and Greg Jones, and guards Elijah Stephens and Colin Smalls, who combine to score 54.9 of the Eagles’ 68.3 average points per game. What the Eagles lack in raw height they make up for in their methodical approach to the game, ending the regular season second to last in pace in the Patriot League.
The Eagles enter the tournament with second seed and one of the favorites to come out on top.
Dark Horses
Army 16-14 (10-8)
Army has never appeared in the NCAA tournament, but this year they have a real chance at breaking that curse. Kevin Kuwik’s Black Knights have been quietly impressive this season. They fit the mold of a dangerous service academy team; small, fast and confident. The Black Knights shoot 25.9 threes per game (67th in the nation) but only hit 32% of them (295th in the nation). This normally is not a good thing, but in single elimination environments, any team can go on a run at any time, and that happens by taking a lot of threes and being confident in the shot.
Senior guard Jalen Rucker (18/4/3) leads the way for the Black Nights, commanding an offense with the second best ORtg in the Patriot League. Rucker burst onto the Patriot League big stage in his sophomore year, averaging 17 points and earning All-Patriot League Second Team honors. Rucker isn’t doing it all by himself, though. The Black Knights have three more players scoring in double figures nightly. Josh Scovens (16/4/2), Ryan Curry (12/4/4) and AJ Allenspach (11/7/1) round out the attack.
Army is entering the tournament 1-4 in their last five games, but the offensive firepower of the Black Knights may be enough to rocket them to their first NCAA tournament berth ever.
Boston University 16-15 (10-8)
The Terriers find themselves in a unique position compared to most college basketball teams in the era of NIL and unrestricted transfer portal. 91.3% of their total scoring comes from returning players from last season. That kind of chemistry can be extremely dangerous in tournament play.
Sophomore guard Kyrone Alexander (13/5/2) leads the way for the Terriers, using his 6’4, 200-pound frame to grab rebounds as well as put the ball in the hoop. Miles Brewster (10/4/2) and Michael McNair (10/3/2) give coach Joe Jones flexibility in the backcourt as well as the option to go small and play fast. Considering that after 7’0 Ben Defty (5/3/1) and 6’10 Nic Nobili (4/5/1), the Terriers lack the size needed to effectively compete down low, the ability to shake up the game and play small ball is a valuable asset in tournament play.
Make no mistake, while Boston University is a long shot to take home the league championship, they certainly won’t go down without a fight.
Potential Cinderellas
Navy: 13-18 (10-8)
Navy finished 13-18 in the regular season, but that doesn’t mean it can’t pose a major threat to knock off one of the tournament’s favorites. Ed DeChellis’ Midshipmen were one of three teams to finish with a positive net rating (+1.1). Navy also boasts the third-highest offensive rating in the Patriot League.
Service academy teams notoriously must make do with the size of whatever roster they are given. This year’s Midshipmen team features 6’10 center Aiden Kehoe (9/9/2) holding down the paint. Guard duo Austin Benigni (18/3/4) and Jordan Pennick (11/3/2) lead an attack averaging 70.5 points per game this year.
While the Midshipmen trend toward the middle of the table in nearly every metric, they have the ability to make some noise in this tournament.
Final Prediction: Bucknell
The Patriot League featured two 13-5 teams and four 10-4 teams. It is safe to say that there is no clear favorite for the single March Madness bid in play. However, Bucknell possesses the versatility and experience to come out on top in the league’s tournament.