A brief overview of the various metrics and terminology used in this article:

-ORtg: Offensive Rating; for players, it is points produced per 100 possessions, while for schools it is points scored per 100 possessions. 

-DRtg: Defensive Rating; points allowed per 100 possessions.

-NRtg: Net Rating; point differential per 100 possessions.

-TS%: True Shooting Percentage; a measure of shooting efficiency that considers field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

Player statistics will be depicted as (PPG/RPG/APG) rounded to the nearest whole number

This year the Big 12 produced 5 teams in the AP Top 25 despite the loss of No. 1 Texas and No. 10 Oklahoma. TCU checks in at eighth, joined by West Virginia, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The seeding for the conference tournament is as follows:

1. TCU

2. Baylor

3. Oklahoma State

4. West Virginia

5. Kansas State

6. Utah

7. Iowa State

8. Arizona

9. Colorada

10. Cincinnati

11. Kansas

12. BYU

13. UCF

14. Texas Tech

15. Arizona State

16. Houston

Favorites

No. 8 TCU: 28-3 (16-2)

Mark Campbell’s Horned Frogs put the ball in the hoop. A lot. Boasting the second-highest offensive rating in the country (115.0), TCU averages 78.5 points per game on just 61 attempts per game. 

Marquee transfer portal acquisition Hailey Van Lith (18/4/5) leads the way on offense for the Horned Frogs. A shifty guard who gets to her spots with ease in the midrange, Van Lith cannot be ignored from beyond the arc either, making two threes a game on a respectable 33% efficiency. Senior forward Sedona Prince (18/9/2) offers an incredible duo for Van Lith. At 6’7, the glass-cleaning forward finished second in the Big 12 in rebounds per game. As if that isn’t enough, Madison Conner (15/4/4) stuffs the stat sheet in her own right. Conner offers a real threat from downtown, shooting 45% from three on the year on eight attempts a game.

TCU is entering the tournament as the outright favorite to win the Big 12 tournament, and they absolutely have the efficiency and star power to get the job done.

#17 Baylor: 25-6 (15-3)

The Bears closed out their season with a tight three-point loss to top-seeded TCU, holding the second-rated offense to just 51 points. Nicki Collen’s squad put together a strong push for first seed but ultimately couldn’t overcome the Horned Frogs. 

The Bears don’t rely on just three players for their scoring output (ORtg of 107.9, 17th in the nation). Baylor has five players averaging double figures and one averaging 9.5. Senior center Aaronette Vonleh (14/6/1) holds down the frontcourt, accompanied by stretch forward Darienna Littlepage-Buggs (14/11/2). All-senior guard trio Jada Walker (11/3/6), Sarah Andrews (11/3/5), and Yaya Felder (11/3/3) round out the Bears top five.

The Bears’ depth and versatility make them the very image of a modern college basketball team; eight players deep and full of experience (Baylor only rosters one freshman and no sophomores). Baylor should have the highest chance of knocking TCU off the top of the Big 12.

Dark Horses

#20 Kansas State: 25-6 (13-5)

The Big 12 is a conference chock-full of offensive powerhouses, and the Wildcats are no exception. Coach Jeff Mittie’s Wildcats come into the tournament as the sixth-ranked offense in the nation, turning in an ORtg of 111.4.

The engine of the offense is guard Serena Sundell (14/5/7), a 6’1 playmaking wizard who also puts the ball in the hoop efficiently. Taryn Sides (10/4/3) gives Kansas State a threat from three, shooting 44% on the year. However, the Wildcats are once again without center Ayoka Lee (16/6/0), who is sidelined with another foot injury until March Madness.

Without Lee, the Wildcats are likely considering the Big 12 tournament to be a wash and will focus their efforts on preparing for the first round of the NCAA tournament. But that is not to say Kansas State can’t make some real noise with their hyper-efficient offense.

Potential Cinderellas

#21 Oklahoma State: 24-5 (14-4)

The Cowboys are unique in the Big 12. Of all the ranked teams in the conference, they have the lowest net rating (+24.8), the second-lowest rated defense (DRtg of 81.0), and the second-lowest rated offense (ORtg of 105.8). And yet, they captured the third seed in tournament play.

The Pokes’ success is in large part due to their three-headed monster in the backcourt. Stailee Heard (16/8/2), Micah Gray (14/3/1), and Anna Gret Asi (12/2/3) are all under six feet tall, leaving the Cowboys woefully undersized on defense, but the trio finds a way to get it done anyway. 6’5 center Tenin Magassa (9/6/1) handles the interior duties for Oklahoma State, entering tournament play on the heels of a 20-point explosion against Kansas (which shot 62% from the field in).

The Cowboys don’t enter this tournament with much chance of winning, but with a double bye, a top-four finish is easily within reach. Such a result could greatly improve their stock in NCAA tournament seeding considerations.

Longshot

Iowa State: 21-10 (12-6)

Iowa State is the only unranked team featured in this article. They are also the only team with double-digit losses and the only team with a sub-20 net rating (+14.8). The reason why comes down to two words.

Audi Crooks. Those are the two words. Crooks (23/8/1) is one of the most complete true centers in the nation. Combining size with skill, Crooks terrorizes opposing bigs, often single-handedly willing the Cyclones to a win. The frontcourt nightmares don’t end with Crooks, sophomore Addy Brown (15/8/4) offers a great complement to Crooks. Senior guard Emily Ryan (10/4/6) is no slouch either, Ryan is averaging 9.8 points a night on 58% TS%.

At the end of the day, basketball comes down to the players on the court, and Audi Crooks is the cream of the crop in the Big 12. If Crooks comes into the tournament hot and the supporting cast keeps up their end of the deal, the ‘Clones could make a deep run to improve their NCAA tournament seeding.

Final Prediction: TCU

Although the Big 12 is loaded with formidable teams and players, the Horned Frogs possess both the star power and depth to take home the title. Couple that with a double bye, meaning they will be fresh while their opponents have already played one or more games, and it should be a fairly simple endeavor for TCU.