If you’ve ever been stuck behind two semis on I-70, drag-racing up a hill at 57 mph, you know the struggle the road to St. Louis can be. The state hopes that by building a third lane on I-70, it will be able to fix similar issues like this! Although that sounds perfect, in the meantime, all of us out-of-staters living east of CoMo will be forced to drive through construction site after construction site as we journey home each year.
As we struggle through I-70, so will all the Missouri Valley Conference teams as they make their own journey to St. Louis and ‘Arch Madness.’ Slow starts, unexpected detours and the occasional team that decides it doesn’t want to pull over are all expected to happen. Now, in March, a battle is going to go down for the prized MVC championship. The exit is coming up and only one team can make it through. Here are my thoughts on who has the best chance.
Favorite
Drake
You may think Mizzou has the most athletes from the Show-Me State in the land,, but you’d be wrong. Drake, hailing from Des Moines, Iowa, has seven Missouri natives on its roster. The Tigers have zero. Yes, zero.
The Bulldogs are led by former Northwest Missouri State head coach Ben McCollum. There, McCollum helped the Bearcats to four Division II national titles. Now coaching for Drake, he’s brought along four of his former players that know his formula and it’s a formula that’s proven to work best in March.
The Bulldogs own three wins over high major teams this year. Their wins against Miami and K-State haven’t aged well, but they do have a win over Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs play good defense and take good shots. Led by Bennett Stirtz (18.9 ppg, 4.4 reb, 5.9 ast), the Bulldogs are currently sitting at 27-3 and first in the conference. Last year, this team made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament, and I would argue they are even better this year.
Next Up
Bradley
Of the three teams to give Drake a loss, Bradley is one of them. Led by Brian Wardle, the Braves have moved back into the upper tier of the MVC after winning it in 2019 and 2020. Today, the team is sitting at 23-7 and their win against Drake proves that this team can compete with the best of the MVC.
Preseason MVC player of the year Duke Deen is one of my favorite mid-major players. Standing at an impressive height of 5-8, Deen finds his way as a driver while remaining a lights out shooter. Yes, I did use the adjective ‘impressive,’ because as someone who stands at that height, it is an apt description of what he is able to do on a basketball court.
Bradley is a team that can beat anyone, especially if they get hot. According to Bart Torvik, the Braves are the 6th most efficient team in the nation with a 57.2 EFG%. They also lead the nation in 3pt shooting with 40.9% of their shots going in. That is with solid volume as well. If the shots are falling, so will their opponents. This team reminds me of the Ohio team a couple years ago that made it to the round of 32 led by Jason Preston. If this team can replicate that team and Duke Deen is really that guy, they will be hard to beat.
Northern Iowa
About a week ago, Northern Iowa forced Drake into overtime before Bennett Stirtz hit a dagger to send the Panthers home. Even with the loss, this game proves that Northern Iowa should not be taken lightly. Drake stands atop this conference as one of the best mid-major teams in the nation right now, so for any team to compete with them is a big deal.
The Panthers are led by 6-6 guard Tytan Anderson (15.3 ppg, 6.5 reb, 2.5 ast), who embodies what this team stands for. Size. Of the players on Northern Iowa’s team that regularly get minutes, the shortest player is 6-4. As a result, the Panthers are one of the hardest teams to score against in the MVC.
This team consistently forces missed shots, pulls in defensive rebounds and plays at their own pace, which means they can control a game when their shots are falling. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened consistently. When they lose, the Panthers shoot 25% from 3. Without a consistent 3 ball, it will be hard for this team to keep up with the likes of Bradley and Drake who are almost guaranteed to get their shots up and in.
A player to keep an eye on is Trey Campbell. Campbell is the best shooter on this team and he could be key for this team to make a run.
Potential Cinderellas
Belmont
Belmont might have the best offense in the MVC, at least according to KenPom. His metrics have the Bruins at 68th in offense rating, just ahead of Illinois State at 69th. Led by Jonathan Pierre, this team is one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation.
This is all nice and dandy, but this team plays defense like stadium security when fans rush the court. KenPom has them at 278th defensively and Torvik has them at 288th. Teams consistently shoot over 50% when facing the Bruins and it’s part of the reason why they have been in 14 close games this year. An offensive heavy team is always scary in tournament play, but if this team can’t defend it’s very unlikely they’ll make it far.
Illinois State
Everything I’ve said about Belmont can be said for Illinois State. The Redbirds are first in offensive rating based on Torviks rankings and I’m sure you noticed they are not far off in KenPom’s.
Although this team’s defensive rankings are slightly better than Belmonts, I have them below Belmont because their head coach, Ryan Pedron, is far less experienced than Belmonts head coach, Casey Alexander. Pedron has only been a head coach for three years and this is the first time that he’s been somewhat successful. Belmont also has a better record right now as they sit fourth in the conference. Illinois State sits tied for fifth.
Longshots
Illinois Chicago
Coach Rob Eshan came into UIC this year after serving as an assistant at Stanford. And he didn’t inherit a good team as he lost 3 players who left for power-five programs. Regardless, Eshan has done a pretty solid job at compiling a solid roster.
This team is very middle of the pack, but they have fun pieces. Filip Skobalji is a power forward that plays like a wing. He barely missed the 50-40-90 club and is super fun to watch. I also really like their starting PG Jordan Mason, who is lightning quick and has some of the best paint touch in mid-major basketball.
Southern Illinois
There are two guys to keep an eye on for this team, Ali Dibba and Kennard Davis Jr. I expect both of these players to be on the court for the entire tournament. They already play up to 80% of their games, and come tournament time and I don’t see them missing very much. Both players are high volume scorers that this team heavily relies on.
The Salukis are also coached by one of the best mid-major head coaches in Scott Nagy. During his time, Nagy has won five conference titles while being the Horizon League Coach of the Year for three consecutive seasons between 2018 and 2020. This guy knows how to coach and he will bring that to the tournament
Murray State
The Racers brought back their two best players in Ja’Cobi Wood and Nick Ellington this season. They also had a big transfer portal class, leaving the Racers projected as one of the favorites to win the conference. However, after a disappointing season, this team is left sitting towards the bottom of the conference.
While Wood’s production remained hot this season, leading the team in scoring, Ellington fell in the rotation. On top of that, a lot of this team’s big offseason moves have not been consistent, especially on the offensive end. Nevertheless, this is a deep roster full of guys who have played a lot of basketball. There are seven starter-level players on this roster, they just need to figure out how to play together.
Missouri State
After losing Alston Mason to Arizona State last offseason, first year coach Cuonzo Martin was forced to hit the reset button. He then brought in a lot of underclassmen and juniors, with combo G Dez White rising as the main guy.
Martin’s debut season has been fairly rough, but this is a young team that has shown flashes throughout the season. Although they won’t be competing for the conference championship, almost all these players will be coming back next season, so this year will be a great building block for a future conference champion push.
Indiana St.
Last year, Indiana St. had one of the most successful mid-major seasons of the past decade. Led by head coach Josh Schertz and star center Robbie Avila, the Sycamores made national headlines as one of the best offenses in the nation.
This year however, both Schertz, Avila, and a lot of the team’s other contributors left for Saint Louis, and former associate head coach Mathew Graves was elevated to the head position. Aaron Gray, one of the few returning players, proceeded to have a down year and transfer Samage Teel took over as the main guy. This team is still recovering from Schertz leaving, and it may take a year or two before this team is a true contender.
Valparaiso
The Beacons feel like a piece or two away from being contenders. The team is led by Cooper Schwieger, a sophomore that is one of the best players in the MVC. The rest of this team is also very young and the future seems bright. While the current team isn’t elite, this team is very similar to Missouri State in that this is a building season for future years. Keep an eye on Schwieger and Valparaiso.
Evansville
The Purple Aces lost two key players Ben Humrichous and Yacine Toumi to power five teams, but couldn’t really match their talent in the transfer portal. Outside of their top guys this year, this team has very little depth.
Prediction
Drake is an easy team to root for, especially with all its Missouri natives. It has a good coach, a good system and are looking to win the MVC championship for two years in a row. The Bulldogs are good enough to even make a run come March Madness. They are by far the most talented MVC team and I have a lot of confidence in them to win this year’s tournament.
However, teams like Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Belmont are three teams that are depending on this tournament to give themselves a bid into March Madness. Those teams should not be taken lightly, and they’ll come in with a lot of fire. Bradley for one has only made the tournament once, and is really the only team I see that has a chance against Drake.