Conference USA has been turned on its head since last year, with top seeds moving to the bottom of the pack, bottom seeds showing great progression and middle seeds exploding to the top of the standings.
While this conference has a clear front runner in Liberty, there are a good number of teams in the mix to contend for the auto bid to the Big Dance.
Favorites: Liberty, Jacksonville State
#1 Liberty (25-6, 13-5)
It’s fitting that Liberty is the front-runner in a conference with USA in the name. The Flames are looking for better results in this year’s tournament after being upset by 5th-seeded UTEP last year in the quarterfinals. This team scores efficiently, leading the conference in shooting percentage at 48.8% and complementing that with lockdown defense on the other, allowing the fewest points in the conference at 62.3 per game. The Flames also win games convincingly; they lead the conference in point differential by more than eight points per game.
This Liberty rotation is deep. The Flames are led by senior guard Taelon Peter putting up 13.7 points per game, but also have 7 players averaging more than 18 minutes per game. The scoring is shared among the rotation with four players averaging double figures and only three instances of the leading scorer being the same in consecutive games this season. Liberty scores, defends and wins at a high level and thus are the ones most likely to raise the Conference USA trophy.
#2 Jacksonville State (20-11, 12-6)
The Gamecocks offense has shown the potential to score way too many points for games to be even close. Twice this year, Jacksonville State has scored over 100 points. But, on the other hand, it can also be very underwhelming, like against New Mexico State where they shot 16-52 and lost to the Aggies 61-52. That isn’t going to cut it against anyone.
But there are reasons this team went from the No. 8 seed last year to the No. 2 seed this year. One big one is senior Jaron Pierre Jr., who averages 21.8 points and has shown the ability to take over games and carry the offense for the Gamecocks by scoring 30 in five games this season. The Wichita State transfer can win games by himself and has the ability to take this team to the promised land.
Contenders: Middle Tennessee, Kennesaw State
#3 Middle Tennessee (21-10, 12-6)
While the Blue Raiders’ record is third best, they are the only team to sweep the Flames in league play this year. This team has shown that they have the potential to be in contention in big games; earlier in the season it led then-No. 1 Tennessee at the half before falling apart in the second half, ultimately losing by double digits. If the Blue Raiders can keep it together for entire games throughout the tournament, they can beat anyone in the bracket.
Two seniors, Jestin Porter and Essam Mostafa, lead the way offensively, averaging more than 14 a game. While the perimeter defense is questionable and easily exploited at times, the Blue Raiders defend the paint well, not allowing many easy shots at the rim.
#4 Kennesaw State (18-13, 10-8)
This team is one that excites me. The newcomers to the conference are two years removed from their last March Madness appearance and have the group to make it back with the auto bid. The Owls have a win vs. a ranked team, and their last two games were both wins against the top two seeds in this conference.
Kennesaw State has the best scoring offense in CUSA, and it could make a push for the conference title in only its first year with a string of good offensive games. It’s mainly going to be up to Adrian Wooley (18.5 PPG) and Simeon Cottle (17.7 PPG) to lead the offense. If those two are on point, this team has a real shot at winning the tournament.
Dark Horses: New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech
#5 New Mexico State (17-14, 10-8)
This team lives and dies by streaks of games. The Aggies have lost five in a row this season and then proceeded to win seven in a row almost immediately after. It seems if they hit their groove at the right time they could challenge any team in the field.
While the scoring isn’t up to par with other teams in the field, the Aggies are second best in the conference in defense, allowing only 65.6 points per game. If the defense can lock down the high-powered offenses that face the Aggies, that gives them a real shot.
#6 Louisiana Tech (20-11, 9-9)
After an earlier exit from the tournament last year as the 2 seed, the Bulldogs came into conference play feeling good after only losing twice with one of those losses being then #16 Memphis and the other being by 3 points. Then conference play started, and it felt like this team took a dip.
There is promise however with Daniel Batcho averaging 16.9 PPG and being one of the best rebounders in the conference. Efficiency and defense are how the Bulldogs can make some noise, but this team loses a concerning amount in close games.
Potential Cinderellas: Western Kentucky, UTEP
#7 Western Kentucky (17-14, 8-10)
The reigning conference champions have had a disappointing year, although they have won some games against good teams here and there. The offense has been top five in the conference in scoring, but the Hilltoppers are giving up the second most points in the conference and that creates too many questions to trust this team.
#8 UTEP (17-14, 7-11)
The Miners have shown flashes of the team that went to the conference championship last year, but the offense just hasn’t been enough to win games. The defense is top five in the conference, and if they want to make it back to where they fell short last year, it will take an offensive masterclass from Otis Frazier III.
Looking to next year: Sam Houston, FIU
#9 Sam Houston (13-18, 6-12)
What has happened? From last year’s top seed to here, there is not much to Sam Houston’s season aside from disappointment.
#10 FIU (9-22, 3-15)
This team might actually get better if Pitbull was added to the roster.
My Prediction: Kennesaw State
If you had asked me about a week ago, I’d have said Liberty, but the last two games from the Owls, including a win over Liberty, has shown me this Owls squad is the real deal.