The Big Ten Men’s Tournament is one of the marquee events to kick off the madness that is the month of March. This tournament is often filled with some of the top teams in the country who are all vying for not just a Big Ten tournament championship, but a national championship.
This year is no different, as the conference boasts a handful of the teams with the best shot at cutting down the nets in San Antonio. However, before these teams can look ahead, they have to endure one of the most grueling conference tournaments in college basketball. With so much talent, passion, and parity throughout the conference, including some new West Coast friends, this year’s tournament has a chance to live up to the hype once again.
Favorites: Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers, Maryland Terrapins
Michigan State Spartans (26-5, 17-3)
The Spartans are rolling at just the right time, but this is nothing new for Tom Izzo and his crew. He always seems to have his teams playing their best basketball in March, and this year is obviously no exception.
The great thing about this year’s Spartans team compared to past squads is their ability to play as a collective unit. There is not a standout star player on this roster, but that seems to have only made this team better. Tom Izzo has 10 different players averaging at least 15 minutes played per game which emphasizes the fact that Michigan State is the deepest team in the Big Ten. With consistent contributions from guys like Jaden Akins, Jase Richardson (son of former NBA player Jason Richardson), Tre Holloman and Jaxon Kohler, Michigan State utilizes its depth to stay fresh deep into games as well as mix up its looks to give opposing teams constant headaches.
However, the X-factor for this team all year has been the high-flying Coen Carr. Carr has been a force to be reckoned with on the glass and in transition, and he provides a spark to his team that helps them reach another level. He can do a little bit of everything, but he specializes in providing a spark whether that is providing a second chance opportunity with an offensive rebound, slamming down an emphatic dunk, or playing lights out defense. The Spartans check all the boxes of a dangerous postseason team. They have depth, leadership, a spark plug and a hall of fame coach, so there is a good chance Tom Izzo’s team will be playing deep into this Big Ten tournament.
Wisconsin Badgers (23-8, 13-7)
Wisconsin has been the most consistent team in the Big Ten all year. The Badgers have ranked near the top of the conference in offensive rating, offensive efficiency, and points per game for the majority of the season. Led by star point guard John Tonje, who is averaging nearly 20 points per game, the Badgers present a balanced offensive attack with consistent field goal shooting and one of the best team free throw percentages in the country. Wisconsin has had success in previous Big Ten tournaments, including a runner-up finish last year, but it has struggled to get over the hump. Its last tournament championship was in 2015 when it ended up going to the National Championship, maybe history will repeat itself ten years later? This Badger team definitely has the potential to make that happen.
Maryland Terrapins (24-7, 14-6)
Maryland might be the most underrated team in the Big Ten. They have a prolific big man duo of Derik Queen and Julian Reese who are both nearly averaging double-doubles on the season. They also have gotten quality guard play from Rodney Rice and Ja’Kobi Gillespie. While the offensive production might be getting headlines with this team, their team effort defensively is what could win them this tournament. The Terrapins rank ninth in the country in defensive rating while averaging 35 rebounds and almost eight steals per game. In their recent matchups against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Michigan they held each school under 70 points which is well below the average for all of those top teams in the conference. Maryland may not be sneaking up on teams for much longer, though, as they are now ranked inside the top 15 in the country, but they are alright with that. They want to make noise, and they have a very good chance to do that in Indianapolis.
Contenders: Michigan Wolverines, Purdue Boilermakers, Illinois Fighting Illini
Michigan Wolverines (22-9, 14-6)
The Wolverines are one of the best turnaround stories of the college basketball season. In Dusty May’s first year at the helm, he has turned this team around from being at the bottom of the Big Ten and missing the NIT just a year ago. Transfer big men Danny Wolf and Vladislov Goldin have been a major part of this resurgence. Wolf and Goldin are the two leading scorers and rebounders for Michigan, making them one of the best big man duos in the entire country. They also brought in Tre Donaldson, an experienced guard from Auburn, to be the primary ball handler. While this team is primarily built on transfers, the chemistry this team plays with is what makes them so dangerous in March.
However, they have hit a cold spell at the wrong time. The Wolverines have lost their chance at a Big Ten regular season title after losing three of their last five games with two of those coming at the hands of Michigan State and Maryland. Their inconsistent shooting and tendency to turn the ball over in critical situations is what puts them as one of the contenders looking up at the favorites.
Purdue Boilermakers (21-10, 13-7)
Purdue has had a rollercoaster of a season to this point. They were one of the favorites to win the conference at the beginning of the season, fresh off their National Championship runner-up last year. However, losing star Zach Edey to the NBA and Mason Gillis to Duke has forced Purdue to heavily rely on its big three of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn to carry the load. The Boilers were doing a really good job of that throughout a grueling non conference schedule where they beat Alabama and Ole Miss while dropping tough games to Texas A&M and Auburn. They were rolling right along in conference play as well until a recent rough patch where they suffered four losses in a row to Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Indiana. Their main flaw has been poor play in the second half of games. During that recent four game skid, they were outscored in the second half by a combined score of 188-139. While this team has the talent and experience to make a deep run, their inconsistency has reared its ugly head in a handful of instances against quality teams, making them a difficult team to trust in a big game down the road.
Illinois Fighting Illini (20-11, 12-8)
Illinois is in the same boat as Purdue; very high preseason expectations, but have disappointed a little bit at this point in the season. Brad Underwood’s team is the defending Big Ten tournament champions, and they were able to carry that momentum all the way to an Elite Eight appearance a year ago, so expectations were high for this group. But similarly to Purdue, the Illini lost some key contributors, most notably Terrence Shannon Jr. to the NBA. Luckily for the Fighting Illini, they have seen great production from two freshmen who are expected to be lottery picks in the upcoming NBA draft in Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley.
The issue for Illinois has been their inconsistency. They have some great wins, but also some head-scratching losses like a loss at Northwestern, a home loss to USC, and road losses to Nebraska and Rutgers. All of those teams are likely to miss the NCAA Tournament and sit near the bottom of the Big Ten standings. With that said, Illinois finds itself in a new position this year as an underdog in this tournament. It has had a target on their backs in this conference over the past few years, but now have a chance to fly under the radar and sneak up on some of the top teams. We just saw this recently when they went into Ann Arbor and dismantled Michigan on its home floor.
The potential is clearly there for this Illinois team, and the Illini have the motivation to defend their Big Ten tournament title.
Dark Horses: UCLA Bruins, Oregon Ducks
UCLA Bruins (22-9, 13-7)
To say the Bruins have had an interesting first year in the Big Ten would be an understatement. Mick Cronin found himself in the media multiple times for publicly shaming his players’ efforts, complaining about conference travel schedules, or getting ejected for yelling at officials.
It seemed like this season was going to go downhill fast as the Bruins began Big Ten play 0-4. However, they responded to the four game losing streak with a seven game winning streak which included home wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State. They have basically been treading water since that hot streak, but they have managed to put themselves right in the middle of the pack in a talented Big Ten conference after a horrific start. This team plays great team basketball as they average over 16 assists per game on offense, and they do a good job of limiting turnovers.
Where they can find themselves in trouble is when their shooting goes ice cold from the outside and from the free throw line. They rank 239th in the country in team free throw percentage, which could end up being costly down the stretch of a close game in this tournament which is bound to have plenty of games decided by one possession.
Oregon Ducks (23-8, 12-8)
The Ducks have been one of the more interesting teams in the Big Ten this year. There were not a whole lot of expectations for this team in their first year in the conference, but the Ducks have exceeded them to this point. In fact, they are entering the Big Ten tournament on a seven game win streak.. This hot streak is coming on the heels of a rough stretch of five consecutive losses.
Beyond their recent success, Oregon has proved it can contend with elite competition as it beat both Alabama and Texas A&M in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Sophomore standout guard Jackson Shelstad leads the team in scoring with 13.6 points per game while shooting nearly 40% from three. Senior center Nate Bittle has also stepped up big for this team all year as he provides an elite inside scoring threat and reliable rim protection on the defensive end. The Ducks are hot at just the right time, and they have the talent to surprise some teams in their first Big Ten tournament.
Potential Cinderella: Ohio State Buckeyes, Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes (17-14, 9-11)
There will not be many teams with more urgency in this tournament than the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State currently sits right on the bubble in the majority of expert bracketology projections.
The Buckeyes have been right around the middle of the pack all year long, but their problem has been their inability to get the big win. They were able to squeak out three point wins over Maryland and Purdue, but other than those two instances, the Buckeyes have continued to come up short against top competition in the Big Ten. They did just pick up a massive double-overtime win over fellow bubble team Nebraska in what could be a preview of the intensity we will see out of this team in the Big Ten tournament with their season on the line.
Bruce Thornton has been Ohio State’s spark plug and big time shot creator, and he will most certainly have to come up clutch in Indianapolis if it wants to make a run that impresses the selection committee enough to get the Buckeyes into the Big Dance.
Indiana Hoosiers (19-12, 10-10)
Indiana has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country this season, and a lot of that has to do with the turmoil and uncertainty surrounding Mike Woodson. Arizona transfer Oumar Ballo was brought in to bring an imposing threat to the paint to compete in a rugged Big Ten conference that is often decided by physicality inside. He has supplied just that for the Hoosiers as he leads the team in points, rebounds and blocks per game, but this team has not been able to put it together as a whole. A lot of the blame has been shifted onto Woodson, who has announced he will not be returning to Indiana next season. The Hoosiers have lost a number of conference games by single digits, causing the trajectory of their season to take a downhill spiral.
However, Indiana has the talent to give any team in this conference trouble. Mackenzie Mgbako, Luke Goode, and Trey Galloway all have experience in big games in this conference, and they will obviously be motivated to leave it all on the floor as they will likely have to win at least a game or two in this tournament to make the NCAA tournament.
Longshot: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (15-16, 8-12)
Rutgers has two of the most talented freshmen in the country, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, but that has not translated to wins for the Scarlet Knights. The main reason for that is their inability to play as a team and their lack of discipline. However, if there was a team near the bottom of standings that the top teams should not want to see get hot in this tournament, it would definitely be Rutgers. Bailey and Harper can score from anywhere on the floor at an elite level, and the Knights have young athleticism around them with guys like Lathan Summerville and Dylan Grant in the frontcourt. If there is any double digit seed to get excited for in this tournament, it is the Scarlet Knights.
Prediction:
While it is easy to go with Tom Izzo in March, or a team like Wisconsin who has been consistent all year, this tournament has shown year after year that the best team does not always win it all. It is all about getting hot at the right time and riding the momentum. That team is the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps have a dominant front court, quality guard play and are one of the hottest teams in the conference at the moment. It is also very possible they end up seeing Michigan State in the championship game with a chance to avenge that heartbreaking buzzer beater loss they suffered in the regular season at the hands of the Spartans.