The American is beyond its glory days. Without UConn, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF, the American has regressed into a one-bid league. Fun stories like Florida Atlantic’s Final Four run can still emerge, but as of now, it’s Memphis’ league and everyone else just plays in it – at least in terms of talent – but the Tigers have had their fair share of slip ups in the postseason. Will anyone topple the Tigers this year? Let’s find out!
The Favorite
Memphis – 26-5
The Tigers have been prone to slip ups in conference play in years past, but this year’s iteration of Memphis is probably its best in the Penny Hardaway era. The Tigers went 16-2 in conference play to win the American by two games, and finished 26-5 overall. Tulsa transfer PJ Haggerty ranks fifth in the nation in points per game (21.2) and seventh in the nation in free throws attempted, giving the Tigers’ offense a high floor despite its susceptibility to turnovers. Memphis doesn’t go very deep with its rotation, but have high level talent that stacks up with anybody in the country. Tyrese Hunter (14.1 PPG) and Dain Dainja (13.7 PPG) transferred in from high majors, and Colby Rogers (10.7 PPG) transferred in from Wichita State after being one of the best players in the American last season. Bubble teams everywhere should be rooting for the Tigers to take care of business and take the conference’s automatic qualifier, and it can be expected that the Tigers keep their five game win streak rolling into the NCAA Tournament.
Dark Horses – Potential Bid Stealers
North Texas – 23-7
The Mean Green play a defined brand of basketball; slow, gritty and low scoring. North Texas is the American’s lowest-scoring team, but also allows the fewest points by far. The Mean Green reached the NCAA Tournament in 2020-2021 with the same formula and upset Purdue, and recorded 31 wins in 2022-2023 as well. North Texas is tried and true, the question is whether they can compete with the offensive juggernaut Memphis is. Atin Wright (15.0 PPG) and Brenen Lorient (12.3 PPG) are both solid offensive threats, but are North Texas’ only two 10+ PPG scorers. If they can dictate the pace, the Mean Green can be successful, but if they get in a track meet they will likely get left behind.
UAB – 20-11
UAB aims to defend its American title after being one of a plethora of bid stealers in last season’s NCAA Tournament, but this year’s team is a bit different from last year’s. Top scorer Yaxel Lendeborg returns and has taken a massive step in production. Lendeborg, a finalist for the Karl Malone Award – given to the nation’s top power forward – leads UAB in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. He has the star power to lead UAB on a postseason run, but this iteration of the Blazers lacks the depth of last year’s team, which may hold them back from a return to the NCAA Tournament.
Cinderellas
Tulane – 18-13
Will March Madness legend Ron Hunter get back in the dance? The former Georgia State head coach has yet to lead Tulane to the NCAA Tournament since making three appearances with the Panthers between 2014 and 2019. Rowan Brumbaugh (15.5 PPG) and Kaleb Banks (15.0 PPG) both rank top 10 in scoring in the American. The Green Wave also defend well, but they stand a tier below the top contenders – Tulane went 1-3 against Memphis, North Texas and UAB.
Florida Atlantic – 17-14
In year one without head coach Dusty May, Florida Atlantic has become a shell of its previous NCAA Tournament teams, but still finished fifth in the American. The Owls defend very well inside the arc, but struggle on the perimeter defensively and are prone to surrendering big runs. The hardest pill to swallow with Florida Atlantic is its 0-6 record against the conference’s top three teams, with an average margin of defeat of 14 points in those games.
East Carolina – 18-13
The Pirates have the American’s most prolific scoring trio with RJ Felton (18.5 PPG), C.J. Walker (17.2 PPG) and Jordan Riley (14.4 PPG), yet still somewhat struggle offensively. The Pirates won six of their final eight games though, and look to keep the ball rolling into postseason play.
They Beat Memphis, I Guess
Temple – 17-14
Volatile would be an understatement in describing Temple, despite appearing simply average with a 9-9 conference record. The Owls beat first place Memphis in mid-January, but lost to last place Charlotte in mid-February. Temple has the conference’s top scorer in Jamal Mashburn (22.0 PPG), but he hasn’t played since Feb. 12.
Wichita State – 18-13
Wichita State, like Temple, picked off first place Memphis in mid-February, but closed the season as losers of three of four. The Shockers are one of the nation’s worst three point shooting teams at 29.1% and have severe limits on their ceiling as a result.
Not Happening
South Florida – 13-18
The Bulls are skidding into postseason play. Losers of four straight and seven of eight, USF also struggles to win away from home. The Bulls won just two road games all season.
Tulsa – 12-19
The Golden Hurricane, by all accounts, is pretty unremarkable. They lost a lot of games by a lot of points in the regular season.. Tulsa, alongside Charlotte, is the second American team allowing more points per game than it scores. Tulsa is also KenPom’s lowest ranked team despite its 10th place finish in the standings.
UTSA – 12-18
How far can the conference’s third-leading scorer Primo Spears (19.8 PPG) take the Roadrunners? Probably not far. Spears has scored 40, 27 and 24 points in losing efforts during conference play, and UTSA’s horrific defense is to blame, ranking second worst in the conference – ahead of only Temple – in points per game allowed.
Rice – 13-18
A surprisingly solid defensive team, but a miserable offensive team. Rice’s 70.6 offensive team points per game is second lowest in the conference ahead of only North Texas, but the Mean Green’s low scoring approach is intentional, while the Owls’ is not.
Charlotte – 10-21
By all accounts, the conference’s worst team. 3-15 conference record, 1-12 record away from home and the American’s only team ranked outside the top 250 by Bart Torvik. Nik Graves (17.6 PPG) is a top five scorer in the conference, but this dreadful season has proven he can’t do it alone.
Tournament Prediction
First Round
No. 12 Rice over No. 13 Charlotte
Second Round
No. 8 Wichita State over No. 9 South Florida
No. 5 Florida Atlantic over No. 12 Rice
No. 7 Temple over No. 10 Tulsa
No. 6 East Carolina over No. 11 UTSA
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Memphis over No. 8 Wichita State
No. 4 Tulane over No. 5 Florida Atlantic
No. 2 North Texas over No. 7 Temple
No. 3 UAB over No. 6 East Carolina
Semifinals
No. 1 Memphis over No. 4 Tulane
No. 3 UAB over No. 2 North Texas
Championship
No. 1 Memphis over No. 3 UAB