Goodbye, old friends, and welcome new faces. In this era of conference realignment, the Big 12 was one of the most affected conferences, with two members exiting and the conference taking on eight more. Last year was BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF’s first trip to Kansas City for one of the best conference tournaments in the nation. Now, the expansion swings westward as Arizona, Arizona State and Utah join the gang in KC for the first time, and Colorado is welcomed back after a little over a decade since its last trip.

With all these changes, the bracket moves to sixteen teams for the first time. Adding the double bye and a more extended tournament, as seen in conferences like the SEC and Big 10. With that in mind, here is a preview of all the teams that have a chance of winning the championship.

Favorite: Houston 27-4 (19-1)

Two years, two regular season titles. Since joining the Big 12 last season, Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have easily been the best team in the conference. Last year, they came up just short in KC, losing in the championship game to Iowa State, but this year, they are primed to avenge that loss. 

Houston is one of the hottest teams in all of college basketball at the moment. Since a loss to 22nd-ranked Texas Tech on Feb. 1, the Cougars have not lost and maintain a ten-game win streak with wins over three teams in the top 15, including the rematch against that Red Raiders team. That loss to Tech ended up being Houston’s only conference loss, and the 19-1 record won them the conference by four games. This Houston team has all the characteristics of a typical Kelvin Sampson squad: suffocating defense and an all-conference guard leading the way. The Cougars once again rank at the top of the NCAA in defense, allowing only 58.1 points per game on average. 

First-team all-conference guard LJ Cryer does most of the heavy lifting on offense, averaging 15.3 points per game and three triples made. This team’s identity is still in its defense, one that has not given up more than 65 points during the Cougars’ win streak. If Houston keeps playing like it has been, the Cougars will cruise to victory in Kansas City.

Contenders

Texas Tech 24-7 (15-5)

If someone is going to take down Houston, it might be the Red Raiders. Texas Tech finished the regular season four games back of Houston and it would’ve been five if not for a stunning overtime victory over the Cougars in early February. The Red Raiders’ resume is relatively unblemished outside of stumbles against UCF and TCU. Tech’s other three conference losses came against teams inside the top 20 of the AP Poll. 

Texas Tech’s star is the Big 12 Player of the Year, forward JT Toppin. Toppin (18.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.2 bpg) was the Red Raiders’ leader in points, rebounds and blocks. The player of the year is a driving force in an offense that averages 81.1 points per game and has won dominantly in most contests. Texas Tech is also one of two teams in both the top five in offense and defense in the conference. 

Arizona 20-11 (14-6)

In the Wildcats’ first year, they did better than many would have expected following a disappointing nonconference performance. Arizona managed to right the ship and now finds itself in the third seed in its first trip to Kansas City. The Cats are led by first-team all-conference guard Caleb Love, who is no stranger to success in the month of March as he was a part of the North Carolina team that made the Final Four in 2022. Love averages 16.4 points per game to lead an offense that was the best in the Big 12. Arizona averaged 82 points per game and put up as many as 113 against rival Arizona State. 

However, the big worry for the Cats is their recent form. Arizona has lost five of its last eight, dating back to Feb. 11. After suffering a season-ending loss at Kansas this past Saturday, Arizona will be looking to regain momentum in Kansas City before the Big Dance.

BYU 23-8 (14-6)

It is often said that the time when a team needs to be playing its best basketball is March, and that is precisely what BYU has been doing. The Cougars are on an eight-game win streak,  just like their Cougar brothers in Houston, and are one of the hottest teams in college basketball. Last year, BYU’s strength was its balanced offensive attack; while just as potent, this year’s team isn’t quite as balanced, being led by forward Richie Saunders. Saunders averages 16 points per game, leading BYU to the second-highest scoring offense in the Big 12 at 81.4 points per contest. 

An underrecognized aspect of this Cougars team is the performance of the centers. Keba Keita is a force to be reckoned with inside the lane, and while he doesn’t light up the scoreboard, Keita dominates off the glass, averaging 7.7 rebounds per game. Fousseyni Traore adds 9.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game off the bench. This makes BYU’s frontcourt production one of the most underrated in the country.

Dark Horses

Iowa State 23-8 (13-7)

Had this been written near the end of January, Iowa State would have been one of the favorites at this conference. Still, unfortunately for the Cyclones, it’s being written now after a tumultuous second half of conference play. Iowa State entered Big 12 play ranked third in the nation with only one loss to Auburn on a last-second tip-in at the rim. The first eight games of conference play went as expected, with Iowa State going 7-1 with a loss at West Virginia. 

Then, the season began to derail after Caleb Love sunk a three-quarter court shot to send the game in Tucson to overtime. Iowa State would go on to lose the game, and things wouldn’t improve from there. Sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic was injured prior to the Arizona game, and his absence would prove a bigger problem than expected as Iowa State dropped its next two games. The Cyclones lost at Allen Fieldhouse and then at home against Kansas State, their first home loss since February 27, 2023. Then Momcilovic returned, and the Cyclones won the next four against the bottom half of the conference until misfortune struck again before a road trip to Houston. 

Going into the Fertitta Center, Iowa State was without its two best offensive players as Keshon Gilbert suffered a muscle strain and Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Curtis Jones was out with illness. Iowa State put up a fight but ultimately came up short. Jones returned for the rest of the season while Gilbert bounced between the injury report and the court. Iowa State went 2-2 in its last four games, with losses at Oklahoma State and at home against a red-hot BYU team. The wins came in revenge matches against Arizona and Kansas State. 

Many experts say Iowa State can beat anyone in the country when healthy. The question is, will the Cyclones be fully healthy, and can they regain their form from the start of the season?

Kansas 20-11 (11-9)

Kansas, a dark horse in the Big 12?  If that were said in the mid-2010s, people would have been shocked, but for the second year in a row, the preseason’s top-ranked team has underperformed.  For the second year running, the Jayhawks had their worst record in Big 12 play since Roy Williams’s first year at the helm. Kansas went 11-9, which can be considered equivalent to its record last year of 10-8. Center Hunter Dickinson was once again first-team all-conference, but outside of him, no one on the roster has impressed much. Kansas has had some big wins, but like last year, they all came at Allen Fieldhouse.

Potential Cinderellas

A few teams could make a Cinderella run, but none have a significant chance of winning the tournament. Instead, these teams need a win or two to secure a spot in the big dance. Baylor and West Virginia are close, but both probably need at least a win or two if the teams want a less stressful Selection Sunday. A first-round loss likely eliminates both from contention. Past these two, it would be hard to expect anything special from lower-seeded schools with how top-heavy this conference is.

Prediction

This time, Houston won’t be denied. With the run the Coogs are on, it would be hard to see them not carrying that momentum and riding the wave through Kansas City. Houston is the best team in the Big 12 and will show that on Saturday night in the tournament championship. That said, it would not be shocking if any team listed from Dark Horses and up won the whole thing. Games in this conference have felt like tournament games for a month, and the top six are all capable of making a run to win this thing.