If you live in Eastern or Central time, you might have memories of waking up on the Saturday before Selection Sunday to watch the championship in the America East. Some of those games have kicked off what have been fantastic days in college basketball.
In 2018, UMBC clinched their bid with a 65-62 win over Vermont. Of course, the Retrievers went on to be the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed less than a week later. Then of course, there was 2015, where Peter Hooley’s three from the top of the key with two seconds to go sent Albany to the tournament.
Although there’s no guarantee that this year’s championship game will be as good as years’ past, there are still plenty of storylines to watch out for.
The Favorite: Vermont
There is no pool of favorites in the conference this year. Vermont finished the regular season at 17-1 in the league and 25-5 on the year. It’s not just their record that separates them either. The Catamounts are currently the No. 69 ranked team in Kenpom. The next closest America East team is New Hampshire at 238.
Vermont might not have a player as good as Anthony Lamb, but they have a plethora of players that are all-conference players. That includes player of the year in the America East, Ryan Davis. Davis’ 123.5 offensive rating on Kenpom is the highest in the conference among players used on at least 24% of possessions.
Right behind him is his teammate Ben Shungu. Shungu without a doubt had an argument to be player of the year in the conference as his defense was outstanding to go with his 15.8 points per game. It’s easy to see this year why John Becker has won over 64% of his games as a head coach. Vermont is my pick to win this tournament and it should lock up no worse than a No. 13 seed.
Other Contenders: UMBC
“Shock it all in college basketball. UMBC makes history in Charlotte.” The famous words by Jim Nantz at the end of the Virginia-UMBC 2018 first round game. However, I can promise you that in this year’s postseason, UMBC will not be shocking anyone, nor will they be playing in Charlotte.
The Retrievers had a decent year in the America East. An 11-7 conference record was good enough to lock up the two seed in the 27th best conference in the country. If they want a shot at going dancing, they’ll need to rely heavily on Keondre Kennedy. Kennedy is averaging over 15 points per game this season on nearly 50% from the field. UMBC opens the tournament against Umass-Lowell.
New Hampshire
The New Hampshire Wildcats only finished one game behind UMBC, but metric wise they are very similar. The Wildcats key to success is their balanced scoring. Jayden Martinez, Nick Guadarrama and Blondeau Tchoukuiengo are all averaging double figures this season. A win in the first round over Binghamton could set up an interesting semifinal with UMBC.
Hartford
On paper, you wouldn’t think Hartford could win this league. They finished 9-9 in the league and were very bad in non-conference play. However, Austin Williams and Hunter Marks, two of the top three scorers on the team, were on the Hartford team that won the league last season.
Experience could be a big deal for this team especially considering they will likely have to play two games on the road to win this championship. Another key note for this team is that they’re the only team in this league that can say that they beat Vermont.
The Hawks knocked off the Catamounts by a score of 75-74 in overtime back on Feb. 14. Austin Williams had 34 in that game. The Hawks will have to string together three great games which they haven’t been able to do too often this year, but if you’re looking for a sleeper team in this tournament, the defending champs are the way to go.
Some other key notes:
It should be of note that Stony Brook will not participate in the tournament this year. The Seawolves finished conference play with a 10-8 record and would’ve been the three seed in the tournament, but due to Stony Brook leaving for the Colonial Athletic Conference next year, the America East decided to ban the Seawolves from the tournament.
Another bullet point that should be considered is that the entire tournament is played on campus sites and the tournament is re-seeded after the first round. Basically after the quarter finals take place, the lowest remaining seed plays the highest remaining seed. The combination of this benefits Vermont greatly because they now have a chance to play a semifinal game against the six or seven seed if a first round upset were to take place.
With that being said, there is not a single reason someone should doubt the Catamounts this year. Their one loss almost a month ago was a rare slip up from a team that is miles ahead of everyone else in this league. Look for the Catamounts to be a dangerous No. 12 or No. 13 seed in the tournament in two weeks.
OFFICIAL PICK: Vermont