In a regular season that saw plenty of unexpected results, there may not be a single conference in college basketball’s power six more wide open than the Big 12. Before Texas’ championship in 2021, Kansas and Iowa State had exchanged tournament championships for seven years. Now, the tournament is more wide open than it has ever been, with plenty of serious contenders.
The Contenders
Kansas
Despite being No. 6 in the country, combined with winning the Big 12 regular season title, it still feels like the Jayhawks have ways to go before they tip off in the NCAA tournament. Kansas was unable to complete the season sweep over any of the teams ranked 2-5 in the Big 12, and that isn’t even including Kansas’ blowout loss on their home court to Kentucky in late January.
However, the Jayhawks still have all the pieces to put together a run in Kansas City. Ochai Agbaji, the Big 12 Player of the Year, has been one of the best scorers in the conference, averaging just under 20 points per game on 47.7% shooting. Their point guard Christain Braun averaged 15 points per game in the regular season on over 50% shooting. Dajuan Harris Jr. is one of the best defensive guards in the Big 12 and will likely match up with other team’s top scorers in Kansas City. The Jayhawks have had inconsistencies in the paint. Center David McCormack has been very up and down this season and has struggled when facing other top big men. The Jayhawks have all the makings of a championship team, can they finally put it together this week?
Baylor
The 2021 NCAA Champions racked off wins in their first 15 games to start their title defense, but after a 4-4 stretch to follow, the Bears ended the regular season as winners of seven of their final eight. So which Baylor team are we going to see in Kansas City? Baylor’s squad this year is much more team over individual reliant. Scott Drew won this year’s Big 12 Coach of the Year and it showed why. The Bears have four players (Adam Flager, LJ Cryer, James Akinjo, and Kendall Brown) averaging 10+ points per game, but none higher than 14. Baylor also has plenty of solid depth, with key role players Matthew Mayer, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and Flo Thamba, who were all members of last year’s team who won the National Championship. They also have forward Jeremy Sochan, who won the Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year. Baylor currently sits No. 4 in KenPom, while having a top 10 offense and strength of schedule rating. I think the Baylor team we have seen post-24 point loss to Kansas is the true version of who they are and once again a serious National Championship contender.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech came just a few bounces away from bringing home the National Title in 2019, losing in overtime to Virginia. Now, the Red Raiders return to national contention with a new starting five, a new coach, but the same single mentality: Defense. Texas Tech is the best defensive team in college basketball. They rank No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, but on the flip side, they are outside the top 50 in offensive efficiency. Texas Tech gives up just 60.7 points per game, on just 38.5% shooting. Forward Bryson Williams has been the go-to man in the lineup for Texas Tech, leading the team with 14 points per-game. Terrance Shannon Jr. missed games with injuries this season but he his fully healthy now and a difference maker in the rotation. The Red Raiders won the games they needed to this season. They swept their series with Texas and Baylor, they beat Kansas at home and lost the matchup in Lawrence in 2OT. They did have some late season stumbles against TCU and Oklahoma State, but the body of work gives plenty of encouragement for Mark Adams and company down in Lubbock.
Texas
It has taken us four teams to mention the team that hoisted the trophy in Kansas City one year ago. Sure, they didn’t have to play a semi-final, and then played a team that probably should have been ineligible in the championship game (more on Oklahoma State later), they took home the title before losing to No. 14 seed Abilene Christian in the first round. However, this is a much different Texas team, and one I think that could still have their best basketball ahead of them. Texas lost four of their last seven regular season games, all to the four best teams in that span. But they have shown flashes. Texas has as dangerous of a guard trio in the conference in Marcus Carr, Andrew Jones, and Courtney Rainey. Texas still sits 15th in Kenpom and are in the top 15 in defensive efficiency, a key in March. I truly think the Longhorns figured something out in Saturday’s loss at Kansas. They took away Kansas’ shooters, and if not for a 17 free throw shot difference, the Longhorns would have won. Don’t count out Chris Beard’s squad quite yet.
SLEEPER TEAMS
Oklahoma
Oklahoma was a team that sat around the bubble for most of the season, before a stretch of losing 11 of 13 games for their bubble hopes to pop. Following the losing skid, the Sooners quietly rallied off three straight wins. They have wins this year against Texas Tech, Florida, and Arkansas. Head coach Porter Moser has tournament experience with Loyola-Chicago, if there is anyone not to sleep on in a tournament, it’s him.
TCU
TCU has been a pretty confusing team all season long. They are all likely going to make the NCAA Tournament, but they have more head scratching losses than anyone in the conference. Losses to West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Santa Clara would be seen as turn offs, but wins against LSU, Kansas, and Texas Tech would make you think otherwise. Their guard Mike Miles Jr. was on the All-Big 12 Second Team, averaging over 15 points per game. This team could lose by 26 in round one or win the whole championship. It’ll be hard to predict either.
Oklahoma State
Just kidding.
Iowa State
Iowa State is another confusing team. Georges Niang and Monte Morris aren’t walking through the door, but this still is a tough team to beat. The Cyclones feasted on a rather weak non-conference slate, but then just went 7-11 in Big 12 play. They have wins against Texas and Texas Tech but loses to both West Virginia and Kansas State. They have a top ten defense according to KenPom, but a rather dreadful offense. Their guard Izaiah Brockington was named to the All-Big 12 First Team, and the Cyclones will need him to carry the load offensively if this team wants to win games in March. I think any team would love to see the Cyclones in the NCAA Tournament first round.
Kansas State and West Virginia:
Win your 8/9 matchup, and it’s considered a successful week in KC.
Bracket Predictions
First Round
No. 9 West Virginia over No. 8 Kansas State
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Kansas over No. 9 West Virginia
No. 4 Texas over No. 5 TCU
No. 2 Baylor over No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 6 Iowa State
Semi Finals
No. 4 Texas over No. 1 Kansas
No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 2 Baylor
Championship
No. 4 Texas over No. 3 Texas Tech
This is the week Texas figures it out. Chris Beard is built to win three straight games, Texas will feed off the momentum and repeat as Big 12 champs.
All-Big 12 Tournament Team Projection:
G- Marcus Carr (Texas)
G- Andrew Jones (Texas)
G- Terrence Shannon Jr. (Texas Tech)
F- Bryson Williams (Texas Tech)
F- Timmy Allen (Texas)