After earning the automatic bid to the NCAA by winning the WAC Tournament title, the Grand Canyon Antelopes find themselves in a much more competitive, new-look WAC this season. After only six teams were eligible for postseason play last year, this season’s tournament features 10 teams, with four new teams coming over from the Southland prior to this season.
This addition of Stephen F. Austin, Abilene Christian and Sam Houston State (fourth team Lamar did not make the conference tournament 10 team field) have livened up the competition in conference this season, with only one game separating the first and fifth seeds. This influx of former-Southland power programs is sure to make this tournament an exciting one, with teams laying everything on the line in hopes of receiving the WAC’s lone tournament bid.
Contenders
New Mexico State: 24-6 (14-4)- No. 1 Seed
Coming out atop the conference in a three-way tie for first, New Mexico State will benefit from the structure of the WAC Tournament, as the top two seeds in the tournament receive a triple bye all the way into the tournament semifinals. With such a short path to the tournament, it is easy to peg the Aggies as one of the top contenders to make it back to the Big Dance after being upset by Grand Canyon in the conference finals last season.
Statistically, analytic metrics favor the Aggies, as they rank first in conference in offensive efficiency (107.4 points per 100 possessions) and third in defensive efficiency (98.3 points per 100) per KenPom. This can largely be attributed to their 46% field goal percentage (2nd in conference) and their ability to hold opponents to just 39% from the field and down to 35% in conference play (first). If shooting at such a high percentage wasn’t enough, the Aggies also lead the conference in offensive rebounds in conference play, pulling down nearly 12 per-game.
While NM State is relatively mediocre in most other per-game statistical categories, the Aggies are led by a guy who is far from commonplace in senior guard Teddy Allen. The transfer from Nebraska has exploded onto the WAC scene, leading the conference in scoring at over 19 points and seven rebounds per game, while also chipping in a few assists and a steal per game.
Allen benefits from a solid backcourt contributor alongside him in junior guard Sir’Jabari Rice, who leads the team in assists per game while adding in 12 points and 5.5 rebounds. Finally, the Aggies have senior Johnny McCants anchoring the defense, where the center leads the conference in blocks with 1.8 per game, while also contributing nearly nine points and five rebounds per game.
Aside from a confusing loss to 7-27 Chicago State at the end of February, the Aggies have been strong in conference, only losing to Stephen F. Austin (split two games), Utah Valley, and Sam Houston, while also defeating second-round tournament team Abilene Christian and sweeping No. 2 seed Seattle.
The magic number for NM State seems to be 70, as the Aggies are an astonishing 21-1 when holding its opponent to under 70 points. If they are able to control the tempo and continue to feed Allen, the Aggies could be tournament bound for the fourth time in five seasons (excluding 2020).
Seattle: 23-8 (14-4)- No. 2 Seed
After being the second-lowest seed in last season’s WAC Tournament, Seattle rode a hot start in conference play all the way to a No. 2-seed and a conference tournament semifinal birth in this years edition. Having to navigate the abrupt resignation of their coach John Hayford just a few weeks prior to the season, interim coach Chris Victor’s squad jumped out to an 8-0 record in WAC play, before cooling off to 6-4 to end the season heading into the tournament.
While Seattle’s offense isn’t the most efficient, only scoring 100.4 points per 100 possessions (9th in conference), the Redhawks make up for it in their tempo, playing at the third fastest pace in the conference. This offensive inefficiency can largely be traced to Seattle’s 41.7% field goal percentage, only ahead of Lamar and Chicago State, who combined for three conference victories this season.
Seattle makes up for it by not turning the ball over and putting up the most shots, more than 50 ahead of the next closest conference team this season, and by knocking down a conference-leading 77% of free throws. The field goal percentage numbers mirror the Redhawk’s 3-point numbers, with Seattle knocking down nearly 10 3s per game, despite only shooting at a 34% clip.
The offense is led by a trio of guards, with the ringleader being sophomore guard Darrion Trammell. Trammell leads the way for the Redhawks with 16.6 points per game, along with five assists and 2.6 steals, which both rank first in the WAC. His fellow backcourt mates Cameron Tyson and Riley Grigsby are also double-figure scorers at 14.7 and 13 points per game, respectively. A rarity that these three possess is that they all shoot above 80% from the free throw line, which could be the difference between winning and losing in March.
Defensively, Seattle boasts the second most efficient unit, only allowing 97.2 points per 100 possessions. This has allowed them to pick up quality wins in conference over SFA, Sam Houston State & ACU. One big criticism facing Seattle is that they played an incredibly weak non-conference schedule (352rd out of 358 teams) and had the luxury of playing many of the weakest teams in conference twice (Chicago State & Dixie State).
They also struggled against quality teams in conference, losing to New Mexico State twice and to Grand Canyon. Seattle will have to fight in its last two games if it wants to clinch its first WAC title and first NCAA Tournament berth since 1969.
Stephen F. Austin: 22-8 (14-4)- No. 3 Seed
While SFA drew the short straw as the No. 3seed, the Lumberjacks come into the tournament as the hottest team in the WAC, riding a 10-game winning streak. The ‘Jacks have a solid resume, with a sweep of ACU, a 25-point drubbing of Grand Canyon, and splits against NM State and Sam Houston, with their only true bad loss being to Louisiana-Monroe in non-conference.
SFA has been great on offense this season, posting the third most efficient offense (104 points per 100) and ranking at or near the top in nearly every offensive category. The ‘Jacks lead the league in field goal percentage (47.8%) and offensive rebounding percentage, where SFA grabs over 35% of their own missed shots. The team also ranks second in points per game (75.2) and assists (15.5).
Defensively, the analytics like SFA more than per game metrics, with the Lumberjacks posting the 5th-ranked efficiency metric (98.4 points per 100 possessions), despite being middle of the pack or lower in many of the defensive per game categories. Despite these struggles, SFA is able to earn their stronger defensive rating thanks to their 9.2 steals (second) and four blocks per game (fourth).
On the court, the Lumberjacks are led by senior forward Gavin Kensmil, the team’s only double-digit scorer at 16.7 points per game. Kensmil also is good for around seven rebounds and a couple of assists per game leading the frontcourt. He does however have a strong supporting cast of David Kachelries, Calvin Solomon, Sadaidriene Hall and latrell Jossell, all of whom score just under 10 points per game. Kachelries operates as the facilitator, leading the team at four assists per game, while Soloman leads the team with 1.8 steals and a block per game.
One man who is sorely missed by the ‘Jacks is senior guard Roti Ware, who was lost for the season after an injury against Liberty in early December. In 10 games, Ware averaged 11 points, but more importantly paced SFA in 3-point percentage at 42%. In the absence of Ware, the ‘Jacks 3-point volume has been low, yet coach Kyle Keller’s team has still found a way to get hot late in the season as he tries to get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2018.
Dark Horses:
Grand Canyon: 22-7 (13-5)- No. 4 Seed
Hard to imagine after making the NCAA tournament a year ago, Grand Canyon finds itself in the Dark Horse category in this year’s iteration of the WAC Tournament. Fans who watched the Antelopes in the tournament last year should recognize the same strong defense they rode to the big dance, with Grand Canyon leading the conference in both defensive efficiency (95.7 points per 100 possessions) and points allowed per game (60.6).
While the Antelopes only score 71 points per game (ninth), this can largely be attributed to the fact they play at the third slowest pace in the conference. Grand Canyon is actually very efficient, scoring 104.2 points per 100 possessions, largely due to their ability to shoot the 3 (35%, 2nd in conference) and secure their offensive rebounds (35% of misses, 2nd).
Defensively, Grand Canyon dominates most categories, including opposing field goal percentage (38%) and opposing 3-point field goal percentage (26.7%) to go along with their top-ranked scoring defense, which is also ranked 12th nationally.
On the court, Grand Canyon relies on the one-two punch of Jovan Blacksher Jr. and Holland Woods. Blacksher, a junior, leads the way with 16 points, four assists, and nearly two steals per game while shooting 40.5% from behind the arc. Senior guard Woods also adds 14 points while being one of the top free throw shooters on the team at nearly 80%.
While the Antelopes struggled against NM State, Grand Canyon showed improvement when they were able to face good teams a second time, especially in avenging a two-point loss at Sam Houston State by defeating the Bearkats by 16 just a month later. Grand Canyon has a bye into the quarterfinal round, where they would play the winner of Sam Houston and either UT-Rio Grande Valley/Cal Baptist, before taking on NM State in the semis. It is difficult to beat the same team three times, so it will be interesting to see if, given a win in the quarterfinals, Grand Canyon will be able to finally knock off NM State and make it back to the Big Dance for the second year in a row. Defense travels, and the Antelope’s defense is in a league of its own.
Abilene Christian: 20-9 (11-7)- No. 6 Seed
Lost amidst the shuffle in moving from the Southland to the WAC, Abilene Christian has quietly had a strong season coming off their first NCAA Tournament win last year against #3 seed Texas.
While the road back to the Big Dance is longer than that of those already mentioned in this article, Abilene Christian is a gritty team that is excellent at turning other teams over, forcing a nation-leading 21.79 turnovers per game. Abilene dominates the assist to turnover ratio and the turnover margin categories in conference, while also averaging over 11 steals per game, also best in the country.
Offensively, the Wildcats are no slouch either, posting the 5th most-efficient offense at 102.1 points per 100 possessions while leading the conference in scoring at 76.9 points per game. Despite being 6th in conference, ACU actually has the highest scoring margin of any team in the WAC at +11, which shows that this team takes care of business against weaker teams and can hang close with the top dogs.
However, the Wildcats have not been able to secure the signature win in conference they have needed, with their best conference win on the road at Utah Valley, while losing multiple close games to Sam Houston and Stephen F. Austin.
The Wildcats are led by senior guard Coryon Mason, one of the heroes in last season’s tournament run. Mason averages 12 points per game to pace ACU, while junior forward Airion Simmons follows closely behind with 11, to go along with six rebounds and nearly two steals per game.
Simmons is one of three Wildcats who are averaging around two steals per game, along with veteran Reggie Miller (1.9) and Damien Daniels (two). If the Wildcats are able to get hot during the tournament, teams might begin to feel the heat from their extreme pressure. Don’t be surprised if this No. 6 seed makes a run in the conference tournament. The Wildcats begin their quest back to the NCAA Tournament by playing the winner of Chicago State/Utah Valley.
Tournament Winner and MVP
With seven teams owning at least a .500 record, this could be the most exciting WAC Tournament we have seen in many years. After going back and forth, I just can’t go against the streaking Lumberjacks, winners of 10 straight, including a recent victory against top-seeded NM State.
With a prime time player in my predicted tournament MVP Gavin Kensmil surrounded by a strong supporting cast playing great basketball, I think that Stephen F. Austin is peaking at the right time and punches their ticket to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2018.
The WAC Conference Tournament Finals will be played on March 12 at 9pm on ESPN+. For the full tournament bracket, click here.