March is one of my favorite months of the year. The weather is warming up, baseball is almost back and the NCAA tournament is just a couple of weeks away. With that, mock NFL draft season is officially in full swing as all the top prospects venture to Indy this week for the Combine.
While draft season began for me at the Senior Bowl (definitely worth the trip if you get the chance), many fans will begin turning their attention to the draft this week. As is the case with many draft classes, this year’s group of college prospects are headlined by several big name quarterbacks.
Last year’s batch of signal callers were nothing to write home about, but it’s safe to say that won’t be the case this time around. There’s a good shot that four QBs go in the top ten for just the second time in draft history.
There are two guys in this class that are viewed as safe options at the position: Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. Both had elite production in college and are day one starters at the next level.
While many are concerned about Young’s size and frame, there’s no denying the traits he possesses which make him very difficult to pass on for NFL GMs.
The main question surrounding C.J. Stroud is his mobility. He showed that he can make plays off script against Georgia in the semifinal, however he didn’t show nearly as much willingness to run in Ohio State’s other matchups.
Both Young and Stroud will likely be top five selections, and no one will be surprised. Where things get interesting are the other two highly touted field generals.
Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are two of the most polarizing prospects in this class. Depending on who you talk to you may hear that they are the next Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen or you will be told that they are busts who have no business going in the first round.
Levis has a cannon for a right arm and has the ideal build you want in a franchise QB. Despite this, he never had stellar production in college and struggled with turnovers.
Quarterbacks having pedestrian college numbers just to pop at the next level isn’t unheard of (just look at Josh Allen), however Levis is a much riskier selection than Young or Stroud.
Then you have Richardson who is even more of a wild card than Levis. Richardson is one of the most physically impressive QBs to come out of college in recent memory, having an elite combination of arm strength and athleticism.
With that being said, Richardson is woefully inaccurate and is easily the most inexperienced of the top four QBs.
Conventional wisdom would tell you to go with the safer option with your first round pick, however several “boom or bust” quarterbacks in recent drafts thrived.
One team that won’t be looking for a franchise QB this draft is the Chicago Bears who possess the top pick. After some laughable rumors surrounding Justin Fields, the Bears appear to be going forward with their former first round selection.
Sticking with Fields is the obvious move, not only did Fields show flashes of brilliance last year but Chicago is in a very advantageous position.
Having the first overall pick while not needing a QB is about as much leverage as you will ever have as a GM, Ryan Poles is in that exact position.
The Bears have several holes on their roster so acquiring draft capital is vital for their rebuild to go anywhere.
Expect the Bears to trade back with a QB-desperate team and get a haul of draft picks they can use to fix one of the worst rosters in football.
I should also mention that the Bears have the most cap space in the NFL so better times should be on the horizon in the Windy City.
I usually don’t project trades in my first mock, however I feel confident that the Bears will ship the top selection. I have the Bears trading back twice to get as much capital as possible. Chicago swaps picks with Houston and then trades the number two selection to Indianapolis in this mock.
This will give the Bears tons of draft capital while still being in a position to take one of their top choices.
2023 NFL Mock Draft 1.0:
1.(MOCK TRADE) Houston Texans(from CHI)- Bryce Young, QB Alabama- Houston moves up one spot to ensure it gets its franchise quarterback. Despite concerns about his size, Young is the most complete QB in this class and will make a strong pairing with fellow Bama alum DeMeco Ryans.
2.(MOCK TRADE) Indianapolis Colts(from CHI)- C.J. Stroud, QB Ohio State- After several one year stints at QB, Indy finally settles on a long term option. Stroud possesses elite accuracy and can go toe to toe with Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young for the next decade.
3. Arizona Cardinals- Will Anderson Jr., DE Alabama- Arizona has lost Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt in consecutive offseasons so the Cardinals revamp their pass rush with the third pick. Anderson is arguably the best player in this entire class and will fill the void left by two future hall of farmers departing.
4.(MOCK TRADE) Chicago Bears(from IND)- Jalen Carter, DT Georgia- After trading back twice Chicago gets the player it probably would have taken first overall. Carter’s recent off the field issues could cause him to slip, but we will have to wait and see in the coming weeks. As for now, I have the Bears fortifying its defensive front with the best interior defensive lineman in the class.
5. Seattle Seahawks(from DEN)- Tyree Wilson, DE Texas Tech- The Seahawks’ run defense was among the worst in football last season so they take Wilson to sure up their defensive front. Wilson fits Seattle’s 3-4 scheme and is an excellent run defender.
6. Detroit Lions(from LA Rams)- Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon- Detroit’s secondary has remained a weak spot for several years now. The Lions address it with Christian Gonzalez who had a breakout season with the Ducks and showed he can excel in man coverage.
7. Las Vegas Raiders- Will Levis, QB Kentucky- Vegas may be able to land Aaron Rodgers through a trade, however I haven’t had any success predicting what Rodgers will do in the past. For now I have Las Vegas taking Will Levis who has a rocket arm and should fit well into Josh McDaniels’ offense.
8. Atlanta Falcons- Myles Murphy, DE Clemson- The Falcons’ pass rush has been non-existent for a while now so they decide to do something about it. Murphy was arguably the best player in a loaded front seven at Clemson.
9. Carolina Panthers- Anthony Richardson, QB Florida- Even if Carolina gets a veteran QB in free agency, it will still be looking for a more long term solution under center. Richardson is the ultimate boom or bust prospect so going to a team with promising offensive personnel should help his chances of succeeding in the NFL.
10. Philadelphia Eagles(from NO)- Devon Witherspoon, CB Illinois- The reigning NFC Champs could lose James Bradberry in free agency so they pair up Witherspoon alongside Darius Slay. Witherspoon is one of the most complete prospects in this class and should make an immediate impact wherever he lands.
11. Tennessee Titans- Paris Johnson Jr., OT Ohio State- Tennessee was atrocious at tackle in 2022 and is in desperate need for a franchise blindside blocker. Johnson is arguably the best lineman in this class and will be the franchise left tackle the Titans haven’t had since prime Taylor Lewan.
12. Houston Texans(from CLE)- Quentin Johnston, WR TCU- Brandin Cooks is likely gone this offseason so the Texans use their second pick to give Bryce Young a true number one receiver. Johnston had an incredible 2022 campaign and checks all the boxes for a productive X-receiver at the next level.
13. New York Jets- Broderick Jones, OT Georgia- The Jets starting QB is very much up in the air(no pun intended) but whoever it is will benefit from protection up front. New York takes Jones who proved himself against elite competition week in and week out and should translate to a quality tackle on Sundays.
14. New England Patriots- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Ohio State- Mac Jones regressed in his second season largely due to a lack of reliable weapons. JSN is an excellent route runner that will consistently get open and give Jones a dependable target he hasn’t had since college.
15. Green Bay Packers- Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame- Robert Tonyan is set to hit free agency so the Packers replace him with one of the best tight ends in the nation last fall. Mayer is a skilled blocker and will be one of Jordan Love’s favorite targets.
16. Washington Commanders- O’Cyrus Torrence, G Florida- Washington needs help along the interior of their line so they take the best pure guard in this class. Torrence has ideal measurables and is a dominant run blocker.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Joey Porter Jr., CB Penn State- With Cameron Sutton possibly departing in free agency, the Steelers draft Porter to fill a potential hole at corner. Porter has the athleticism necessary to match up with number one WRs in man coverage.
18. Detroit Lions- Luke Musgrave, TE Oregon State- Detroit traded away T.J. Hockenson last season so the Lions once again take a tight end in the first round. Musgrave has been rising on draft boards since an impressive showing at the Senior Bowl and fills Detroit’s one need at a skill position.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Kelee Ringo, CB Georgia- Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are set to hit free agency so Tampa adds Ringo to its secondary. Ringo has elite physical traits but was inconsistent this past season. Ringo should develop into a quality zone corner and will fit into Todd Bowles’ unit.
20. Seattle Seahawks- Cam Smith, CB South Carolina- John Schneider found a gem in the fifth round last year with Tariq Woolen however Seattle could still use another corner. Smith proved himself against SEC competition and will make up one of the top young corner duos in football with Woolen.
21. Los Angeles Chargers- Bryan Bresee, DT Clemson- The Chargers’ run defense has been a problem over the past couple of seasons so they take the former top ranked recruit out of high school. Bresee can play anywhere along the line and will improve the weakness of Brandon Staley’s unit.
22. Baltimore Ravens- Jordan Addison, WR USC- Baltimore’s struggles at WR are well documented so this feels like the obvious choice with this pick. Lamar Jackson’s future with the team is murky but drafting Addison should help convince Lamar to remain a Raven.
23. Minnesota Vikings- Clark Phillips III, CB Utah- The Vikings pass defense was historically bad last season and Patrick Peterson is turning 33 and entering free agency. Minnesota goes with Phillips who has excellent ball skills and is a very agile corner.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars- Brian Branch, S Alabama- The Jags continue to add on to its young and improving defense by taking the top safety in this class. Branch is incredibly versatile and can contribute as both a safety and a nickel corner.
25. New York Giants- Jalin Hyatt, WR Tennessee- The Daniel Jones experiment appears to be continuing into 2023, so New York gives its former first round QB a true top weapon. Hyatt is one of the best deep threats in this class and will give Jones a chance to take another step forward.
26. Dallas Cowboys- Peter Skoronski, OT Northwestern- Offensive line has been a growing concern with the Cowboys especially with Tyron Smith’s availability being uncertain. Dallas gets an absolute steal in Skoronski this late in the first round as he can contribute immediately as a guard before possibly moving back out to tackle when Smith retires.
27. Buffalo Bills- Bijan Robinson, RB Texas- The Bills’ run game was way too Josh Allen dependent last season so they take a potential star in Robinson. Taking a RB in the first round is generally frowned upon however it is a major need for the Bills and Robinson is the type of talent that can change your offense.
28. Cincinnati Bengals- Darnell Washington, TE Georgia- Hayden Hurst is a free agent and Cincy has several major extensions on the horizon. The Bengals take Washington who is physically dominant and will serve as an excellent red zone target for Joe Burrow.
29. New Orleans Saints(from DEN)- Lukas Van Ness, DE Iowa- Marcus Davenport is a free agent and Cameron Jordan isn’t getting any younger so NOLA makes sure their pass rush is set for the future by taking Van Ness.
30. Philadelphia Eagles-Keion White, DE Georgia Tech- Philly is likely losing several contributors from their dominant front seven this offseason so they take White with their second first rounder. White showed out at the Senior Bowl and is an elite talent that just needs his game refined.
31. Kansas City Chiefs- Dawand Jones, OT Ohio State- With both of their starting tackles hitting free agency, the world champs decide to go tackle here. Dawand Jones has impressive measurables and should develop into a long term option at right tackle.