Sioux Falls, S.D. – The Summit League Tournament is about to tip-off with the first game starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time between the #9 Denver Pioneers and #8 North Dakota Fighting Hawks. Before the tournament starts, I’m here to break down the tournament and what to look for.
The first round, which includes the aforementioned Pioneers and Fighting Hawks along with the #7 Kansas City Kangaroos and #10 Omaha Mavericks, will feature four teams with massively varying identities.
Watch out for Kansas City’s Shemarri Allen, who will plan to make his return after injuring his arm in a Feb. 18 game against North Dakota. Allen is averaging 17.8 points per game and 2.2 steals per game in Summit League play this season and was named to the Summit League All-Defensive Team and All-Summit League Second Team. North Dakota should also make some noise in the first round, holding the third-best turnover margin in Summit League play this season along with the second most three-pointers per game at 9.6.
Looking ahead to the second round, the #1 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles will play the winner of Denver vs North Dakota while the #2 South Dakota State Jackrabbits will play the winner of the other game.
Oral Roberts has been the best team in the Summit League this season and it hasn’t been close. The Golden Eagles went undefeated in conference play, leading in team points per game by over ten points in Summit League play and having the least points allowed on defense. They’ve been led by longtime Golden Eagle Max Abmas, whose name fans outside of the Summit League may even recognize for his March Madness heroics in 2021. Abmas is averaging a cool 23.5 points per game with a .402 three-point percentage in Summit League play. The Golden Eagles also have 7’5 big man Connor Vanover, who snags 7.1 rebounds per game and 3.1 blocks to pair with his ability to shoot the ball at a .333 clip from beyond the arc in conference play.
As for the Jackrabbits, they are led by a stifling defense, rivaling Oral Roberts for best in the conference. South Dakota State allows the second least points per game at 67.4 while holding opponents to the lowest three-point percentage at .323 in Summit League play. On the offensive side of the ball, Zeke Mayo has been the go-to guy for the Jackrabbits shooting lights out with a .424 three-point percentage and scoring 21.1 points per game in conference play.
The rest of the field includes the #3 North Dakota State Bison, #4 St. Thomas Tommies, #5 Western Illinois Leathernecks and #6 South Dakota Coyotes.
North Dakota State is a team which could upset its way to the Summit League championship behind its high scoring offense and great rebounding. Throughout the season, losing the turnover margin has held the Bison back, but if they can play clean basketball, their strengths become Oral Roberts’ weaknesses, who they would be likely to face in the championship.
Andrew Rohde of the Tommies and Trenton Massner of the Leathernecks are two players who could also have a big impact and will look to one up each other in the game between their two teams on March 5th. Rohde was named to the Summit League All-Freshman Team after averaging 18.4 points per game, 3.9 assists, and 1.8 steals for the Tommies. Massner was almost all of Western Illinois’ team, contributing 21.6 points per game, 5.6 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.5 steals.
One important note to make is that St. Thomas is ineligible to play in March Madness even if they win the Summit League championship due to their transition to DI. With that being said, St. Thomas is one of the teams I feel will be eliminated early in the tournament due to their struggle to rebound, their lack of efficiency from the field, and the inability to shoot the deep ball effectively.
However, March is a time for the underdog. Kansas City is one of the teams I wouldn’t be surprised to see as one of the last four teams, having a dominant defense that can create havoc on that side of the ball. If they can stick to their defensive mindset and stay calm in the pressure of March, other teams may get frustrated.
While Kansas City is one of my favorite lower seeds, I believe their luck runs out in the semifinals. My championship prediction pits North Dakota State against the favorites in Oral Roberts, and while I feel North Dakota State has a much better head-to-head chance to defeat the Golden Eagles than any other team in the conference, I believe the Golden Eagles finish the undefeated conference season and advance to the NCAA tournament with an automatic bid.