As the NCAA tournament looms, conference tournaments are now beginning in full force. The biggest question going into the Conference USA tournament is if anyone can beat the Florida Atlantic Owls, who went 18-2 in conference play, a perfect 17-0 at home, and 28-3 overall. They are having the best season in team history, and are the odds on favorite to win the conference tourney. There will also be plenty of other intriguing matchups and interesting players to focus on when the tournament tips off March 8th at Frisco, Texas.

The Favorite:

Florida Atlantic Owls

As mentioned in the intro, the Owls have had an incredible season lead by HC Dustin May, who was hired in to 2018 after a 10-20 season the year prior. The Owls are explosive offensively with 79.3 ppg, ranking 33rd in the nation. They won their final four games, and have nearly guaranteed a place into the big dance. That being said, they will look to put the perfect cap to their incredible season with their first Conference USA championship in school history, and their first conference tournament title since the 2001-2002 season. They are led by three players who averaged double figures this season in sophomores Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, and Vladislav Goldin. Their depth should be a huge advantage, as well as their stingy defense that makes them the most well-rounded and balanced team in the conference. They will certainly be the team to beat.

Contenders: 

UAB Blazers

The Blazers go into the conference tournament as the 3 seed, and will likely have to win the conference championship to make back-to-back NCAA tournament bids after a first round loss last year. The Blazers have the best offense in the conference and are ranked 12th in the nation in points per game at 82.2, and top 10 in rebounds per game at 41.2. They have one of the most exciting players in the league in Jordan “Jelly” Walker, a senior who is the third leading scorer in the entire NCAA, averaging 23.2 points per game. They are also the hottest team coming into the tournament, winners of six straight and were one of the two conference foes that downed Florida Atlantic this season. If the Blazers can control the pace of the game and let Jordan Walker cook, they can beat anyone in this tournament. They seemed destined to take on North Texas in a duel that will pit two opposites against one another, as the Mean Green are known for their stingy defense. If UAB can get through them, however, it doesn’t seem like a long shot at all to see them beating Florida Atlantic or whoever else will be awaiting them in the championship game.

North Texas

After falling short of a NCAA tourney bid last season, the Mean Green will have something to prove as they look to return to the big dance as the 2 seed. Finishing with an overall 26-5 record, North Texas relies on creating havoc for opposing offenses as the best defensive team in the conference, allowing 55.4 points per game. Their pace is very slow and methodical, which can lead teams to rush offensive possessions and make mistakes that give the offense quick and easy buckets. The offense is heavily reliant on Senior Tyler Perry, who averages 17 points and 3.1 rebounds per game, as well as Senior Kai Huntsberry and Junior Abou Ousmane. If those three guys aren’t clicking, it may be hard for North Texas to catch up if they fall behind, which will make it critical that they get stops and force turnovers, especially against the high-powered offense of UAB. They beat UAB twice during the regular season, once without Jordan Walker and another time with him. They will face either Florida International or Louisiana Tech in their first game, and definitely have a great chance to get an automatic bid into the NCAA tournament.

Long Shots:

Charlotte 49ers

I was considering putting this team as a dark horse, as they pretty easily could have won more and played better than their 18-13 record shows. But looking at the top three teams, it just seems there is a fairly clear difference between them and the rest of the conference. Charlotte loves to shoot the 3-pointer and shot it fairly well at 37.5%, but the defense was an issue as they allowed 62.6 points per game, and they struggled in late-game situations. They played 16 games decided by six or fewer points during the regular season, going 7-9. They will face Middle Tennessee in the first round, a team they should be able to take care of if they are hitting from beyond the arc. I just don’t see them hanging with the Owls, who would use their depth to run the 49ers out of gas and out of the tournament. 

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

The Blue Raiders will forever be remembered for their win over the 2 seeded Michigan State in the 2015-2016 NCAA Tournament, and will start this week as the 4 seed facing Charlotte. The Blue Raiders, at 18-13 on the season, showed flashes of good play, but also showed signs of inconsistency throughout the season. They were the only other team to beat Florida Atlantic in Conference play, as well as beating UAB in overtime in their first meeting of the year. On the flip side, however, they lost their second meeting to the Blazers by 23, lost to Western Kentucky, Florida International, and lost to UTEP and UTSA, the two lowest teams in the conference. They will go into the conference tournament on a two game losing streak, and have struggled to defend the three all year. They are led in scoring by Junior Eli Lawrence with 12.3 PPG, but face a very steep hill to climb with their first two matchups in the tournament.

Rice Owls

The next few teams all finished with conference records of 8-12 and will need practically everything to go right for them to have a chance in the tournament. Rice comes in with a 17-14 overall record, and did beat North Texas and played ranked Texas tough, only losing by 6. That being said, their defense is very suspect, allowing 76.2 PPG and will face UAB if they can beat UTSA in the first round. They got blown out by the Blazers both times they faced them this year, including a near 30-point shallacking in their second meeting. They had 4 different players average double digits during the season, and were led by Junior Quincy Olivari, who averaged 19.3 PPG. They will be unlikely to keep pace with UAB, and had an overall inconsistent season.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

The Hilltoppers finished the season a game above .500 this year at 16-15, and were plagued by inconsistent play all season. Their biggest win of the season was a two-point victory over UAB early on in the season, but don’t have an impressive resume going into the tournament. They will face UTEP in the first round, a game they should win, but would have little chance vs Florida Atlantic in the second round of the tournament.

See You Next Years:

Florida International Panthers

While Florida International also finished with a 8-12 conference record, they ended the season under .500 overall at 14-17. They suffered a brutal 5 game losing streak before beating Rice at the end of the season, and have little depth after leading scorer Denver Jones, who averages an even 20 points per game, and Arturo Dean, the team’s only other player who averaged double-digit points. They allowed more points than they scored and will likely fall to North Texas if they win their first-round matchup to Louisiana Tech.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

The bulldogs also finished 14-17 overall with one less conference win, and actually started off the season 6-2. But conference play saw their decent start fall apart, and they finished the season losing seven of their last eight games. Similar to the Panthers, They simply don’t have enough to hang around with North Texas or the offense and will be looking to build to next season.

UTEP Miners

The Miners finished the season with an identical record to Louisiana Tech but go into the tournament as the 9 seed facing Western Kentucky. UTEP was done in by a pair of 4-game losing streaks in conference play, but is coming into the tournament off a victory. The offense wasn’t great for the Miners, as they average only 68.5 PPG and will likely not have the depth to beat Florida Atlantic if they can move past the first round.

UTSA Roadrunners

The roadrunners come in as the last overall seed, and only managed 4 conference wins, finishing with a 10-21 record. They allow 76.7 PPG while only scoring 69.2, and will be facing Rice in the first round. UTSA suffered a disastrous 11 game losing streak which basically put them out of the running for anything but the last seed. They are coming in slightly hot, as they won their last two games, which was one of only two winning streaks they had all year, but their season is all but finished.

My Prediction: Looking at the bracket, the team with the most overall depth is the Florida Atlantic Owls, who also have a much easier path to the finals. I do like UAB’s firepower and Jordan Walker is a huge x-factor, but I predict the Owls will finish their season with a conference tourney victory and go into the NCAA tournament as a likely 7 or 8 seed.