The NFL is an ever changing league with teams regularly fluctuating from playoff contention to mediocrity. While a handful of teams are able to remain atop the sport for a prolonged period of time, most contending windows for teams slam shut as quickly as they open.
Only half of the playoff teams from 2021 returned to the playoffs in 2022 and that isn’t a statistical anomaly, the margins in this league are razor thin. The main culprit for teams regressing year to year is losing key players in the offseason.
The NFL is a hard cap league so teams often have to pick and choose which players to keep while letting others walk. Free agency sets the tone of each franchise heading into a new season. Some fan bases are entering 2023 with a renewed sense of optimism while others are just hoping to avoid a massive drop-off.
All three of the teams listed below lost this offseason and missed the playoffs in 2022, and I don’t see them turning in a deep playoff run in the near future.
Los Angeles Rams:
Just one year removed from their triumph in Super Bowl LVI, the Rams face an uncertain future. LA infamously mortgaged their future in an effort to acquire elite playmakers as the franchise’s last first round pick was Jared Goff in 2016.
That gamble paid off with a Lombardi Trophy and if you asked any Rams fan they wouldn’t change a thing about their approach. With that being said, the price of going all in eventually catches up to every team and the Rams are no exception.
After having the worst season by a defending Super Bowl champion, LA lost several key contributors. The Rams won Super Bowl LVI thanks in large part to a stout defense that lost many of its marquee names this offseason.
In what could be politely described as a highway robbery, the Rams traded All Pro corner Jalen Ramsey to Miami and only got a third round pick and TE Hunter Long in return. Long had as many catches in the 2022 regular season as anyone reading this so it’s safe to say the Rams didn’t get the compensation they were hoping for when shopping Ramsey.
While I understand this trade was done largely to free up cap space, it doesn’t change the fact that the Rams lost a generational talent at an important position. Los Angeles also saw Leonard Floyd depart in free agency after racking up 9+ sacks in each of his three seasons with the team.
Bobby Wagner returned to Seattle after a one year stint with the Rams where he was named Second-team All Pro. Losing three of your top defenders doesn’t usually translate to success in the following season and the Rams don’t have a first round pick to address these holes.
While the Rams should be able to improve off of what was an atrocious 2022, don’t expect them to be anywhere near the product they were in 2021.
Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are all coming off injury riddled seasons while Sean McVay has flirted with the idea of leaving the sidelines for a cushy (and very well paying) job in television.
It’s safe to say that 2023 will be a defining year for the Rams as they look to prove that their Super Bowl window hasn’t closed quite yet.
Green Bay Packers:
While Aaron Rodgers is still technically a Packer, it’s pretty clear that the organization is moving forward with former first round pick Jordan Love. Rodgers is expected to be traded to the Jets just like his predecessor was 15 years ago.
What the Packers will get as compensation for Rodgers is still unknown, however, what is known is Green Bay’s offseason losses at skill positions.
I understand wanting to move forward with Jordan Love, but I don’t get giving Aaron Rodgers $150 million over three years if that’s the case.
While Green Bay’s pass catchers weren’t the envy of the league by any means, they still lost several solid pass catchers that are needed for Love to develop into their next franchise QB.
Allen Lazard is off to New York on a four year deal presumably to join Rodgers in the Big Apple. Lazard was Green Bay’s leading receiver last season and was one of many pass catchers to depart from Lambeau.
Green Bay let Robert Tonyan walk and will now face him twice a year after he signed with the Bears. The Packers also lost Randall Cobb and Mercedes Lewis in free agency. While both are well past their prime, Cobb and Lewis at least provided some experience to an otherwise unproven group of pass catchers.
Matt LaFleur’s offense is built on its ground game, however you need perimeter weapons that defenses respect so they can’t load the box and key in on the run. Green Bay is no longer gonna have a four-time MVP to keep defensive coordinators honest.
The Packers have to prioritize skill players in the draft and give Jordan Love a reliable weapon other than Christian Watson.
Minnesota is fresh off a 13-4 campaign while the Bears and Lions made noticeable improvements this offseason. For the first time in years, the NFC North doesn’t run through Wisconsin.
Las Vegas Raiders:
2022 was supposed to be the year the Raiders finally rose to prominence in the AFC. Coming off of a playoff appearance despite several off the field issues and adding Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, the expectation was for Vegas to challenge KC for the West.
That didn’t even come close to happening as the Raiders blew multiple double-digit leads and ended the Derek Carr era on a whimper. Fast forward to the present and the Raiders are the clear cut fourth team in the AFC West.
While no one would ever confuse Derek Carr for an elite signal caller, he helped stabilize a dysfunctional franchise and kept them viable in a tough division.
Las Vegas downgraded at QB, signing Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year deal. While I don’t hate signing Garoppolo in a vacuum, a three-year deal could imply that Vegas views him as a long term option. For Raiders’ fans sake, I hope that isn’t the case considering Garoppolo’s injury history and limited ceiling.
If Garoppolo is merely a stopgap for Anthony Richardson or Will Levis then I don’t hate the move, however, the length of the deal makes it a questionable move at best. I understand Garoppolo has prior experience with Josh McDaniels but he is still a bridge starter at best.
McDaniels flamed out in his last head coaching stint largely due to moving off of his QB at the time, Jay Cutler. McDaniels is already on the hot seat and is now at a noticeable disadvantage in his division at the most important position.
Jimmy G also won’t have Pro Bowl TE Darren Waller who was dealt to the Giants in exchange for a third round pick. Like the Jalen Ramsey trade, it frees up some cap space but comes at the cost of an elite player.
Elite tight ends are as rare as ever in today’s NFL and Vegas just let one go for a single 3rd rounder. I should also mention that the Raiders had to place the franchise tag on Josh Jacobs after his breakout 2022.
While this is a good move on the surface, last season’s leading rusher will be roughly a $10 million cap hit in 2023. If the Raiders picked up Jacobs’ fifth year option last year, he would only be an $8 million cap hit this season.
The Chiefs are the NFL’s next dynasty while the Chargers and Broncos made major upgrades to their coaching staff and still have competitive rosters with QBs who have shown they can play at an elite level.
Las Vegas also isn’t in the best position when it comes to drafting a QB later this month. There are four bonafide first round prospects and at least three of them will be off the board unless they trade up. Carolina, Houston and Indy are all drafting quarterbacks and I wouldn’t rule out Seattle or Detroit (who each pick before the Raiders) from taking one.
Vegas could trade up with Arizona for the third pick but even then, you are rolling the dice on a high risk prospect in Levis or Richardson. The Raiders are too good to tank for Caleb Williams with Garoppolo at QB so their best bet is to hit on a QB in this draft.