Two running backs were taken in the top 12, Will Levis didn’t get picked, and mock drafts everywhere were toast. Here’s a recap of a wild first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Loser: Mock drafts

Other than March Madness brackets, mock drafts are the only other thing in sports that people spend countless hours trying to predict just to be, like, 20% correct. Each year, different websites compile data from the “prominent” mock drafts on the Internet to see how each mock drafter did at predicting the draft. The average number of correct player/team matches amongst these prominent mock drafters has hovered around seven for a few years; 7/32 is good for a roughly 22% hit rate. Kachow!

Predicting the draft is difficult, but this year was different. While most people believed that Bryce Young was going first overall to the Panthers, what happened after that was truly anyone’s guess. One anonymous GM called it “the most unpredictable draft in forever,” and after the first round unfolded, they couldn’t have been more right on how wrong we all were about where several prospects were going to land.

It didn’t take long for mock drafts to go up in flames. The difference between the public and league wide perception of prospects is usually at least somewhat different, but judging by the results of Thursday night, that gap was never wider than this season and may not be this wide for a while. In order to convey how shocking a chunk of the first round results were to the public, we’re going to use data compiled by nflmockdraftdatabase.com, which is a hub for all prominent mock drafts that are published throughout the course of a season. For context, there have been well over 300 mocks from different contributors posted on the database in the last ten days alone. 

Arguably the most surprising pick in the first round was the Lions taking Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Out of all mock drafts logged on the database since January 1, only one had Gibbs going in the top 17, and that was a PFF mock where they could only take quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Iowa State edge rusher Will McDonald IV was also a relatively surprising pick at 15 to the Jets; he was mocked in the top 18 just once from March onward. Only two mocks had Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon going fifth to the Seahawks since the start of April, and just five out of the 283 published mocks (1.8%) had Christian Gonzalez falling to the 17th pick or lower. Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba rarely fell out of the top 19, and Tennessee offensive tackle Darnell Wright rarely entered the top 10. 

Arguably the most widely-known mock draft scoring system belongs to The Huddle Report, a draft database who’s been scoring mock drafts for years. This year, only two recorded mock drafters had ten correct player/team matches; there were only two people who’s hit rate exceeded 30%. The average correct team/player matches for the 170+ mocks that were scored on the database was around four or five (<17% hit rate). Those numbers were the lowest in years. 

While there weren’t any prospects that went in the first round that were true stunners like Cole Strange last year, there were several that seemed like locks to go in the first round that remain on the board. Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. was projected to be one of the first ones off the board and had a 90.6% chance to go in the first round according to the mock draft database (a number that I’m going to guess is based on how frequently players were going in the first round in mock drafts); four cornerbacks went off the board before JPJ, who ended the night undrafted. Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer had a 90.1% chance of hearing his name called on Thursday, yet still remains available.  

However, there was someone else who had a less than 90%  chance of being picked on Thursday night, but wasn’t; their number was actually 95.6. But alas, he’s the biggest loser of the night. 

Loser: Brian Branch, Joey Porter Jr. and Will Levis (but mostly Will Levis)

Each year, a select number of prospects are invited to attend the first round of the NFL Draft in-person. They’re prospects that are the most likely to get taken in the first round, hence why they’re invited to the draft. During the round, the players wait in the “green room” (which is basically a backstage-style room) with friends, family and loved ones that accompany them during the draft. 

Now, while the green room isn’t literally green, green is generally a positive color. On a stoplight, green means go. A large chunk of nature is green. Check marks are usually green. A green release on NBA 2K implies a perfect shot. 

But the green room at the NFL Draft? That can quickly turn into a quasi-hellscape despite the slow passing of time. As the top players go off the board, some are left waiting. And waiting. And waiting some more. Porter Jr and Alabama safety Brian Branch were left waiting in the green room all night long until it ended with neither of them getting picked, a likely deflating experience for guys who probably thought they deserved to hear their names called. 

However, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis probably had the most visibly worse night out of the four. Levis, who was essentially a lock to go in the first round prior to Thursday night, was shown in the green room 37 times throughout the first round as Roger Goodell kept calling names that were not Will Levis. 

Each cut to Levis became more and more depressing. He’d be checking his phone frequently, but there always seemed be nothing (#relatable). His facial expressions didn’t change much as players kept coming off the board. His mom, Beth (a former All-American soccer player at Yale) engaged in full-on supportive mom mode. 

This adds to a laundry list of top prospects having sour green room experiences. Lamar Jackson looked quite sad as he fell all the way to 32 in 2018. Aaron Rodgers tumbled all the way to 24 in 2004 despite his hometown San Francisco 49ers promising that they’d take him; instead, they took Alex Smith, and Rodgers was the last one left in the green room in what ultimately became one of the most documented draft freefalls ever. Geno Smith endured a painful night in the green room in 2013, and like Levis, wasn’t taken in the first round despite being widely considered a first round talent. 

The tumble Levis took, however, was unprecedented. This was the first time that no quarterbacks were taken in the first round after three were taken in the top five since 1971, a draft that featured eight running backs taken in the first round and players named Elmo, Wilbur, Chip and Cotton. Historically, when there’ve been a run on quarterbacks early in the first round, at least one other is usually taken outside of the top third of the draft. 

To add even more insult to injury, this fall was financially painful for Levis as well as emotionally painful. Rookie contracts are pre-determined by draft slot; the higher you’re picked, the more money you’ll make in your first few seasons in the NFL. Levis had been strongly linked to the Colts with the fourth overall pick, but Indy obviously went with Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson instead. According to Spotrac, Richardson’s rookie contract possesses a projected total value of about $34 million. Should the Rams with the 36th pick decide to draft Levis as the heir to an aging Matthew Stafford, Levis’ projected total value would be just over $9 million. Ouch!

The good thing is that Levis will probably get drafted in the second round. Although he put mayonnaise in his coffee, I think a team will be able to get past that and get behind the rock solid signal-caller that is Levis. 

Winner: The Georgiadelphia Bulldeagles 

A large part of drafting college players is the thought of what they can be, not what they are. For example, quarterbacks. Out of the top 30 quarterbacks in career passing yards in Division I history, only Philip Rivers and Derek Carr ended up becoming above-average starters in the NFL. On the other hand, Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson have been taken in the top five despite starting a combined 13 games in their final seasons of college. 

Now, what if I told you that there’ve been prospects that were both awesome and college and projected well to the pros? And what if I told you that the Eagles got, like, several of them?

Amidst a process that has proven to be extremely complicated for many teams, Howie Roseman & Co. continuously make moves that are so impactful, yet so…simple. In 2021, Georgia put together one of the most dominant defensive seasons in college football history, allowing fewer points per game in the regular season (6.9) than 51 Division I college baseball teams allowed runs per game that same year en route to the program’s first national championship since 1980.

The strategy of “let’s get as many guys from that team as possible” has proven to be an effective one for the Eagles. That following draft, the Eagles traded up to take defensive tackle Jordan Davis in the first round, then snared linebacker Nakobe Dean in the third round after injury concerns ignited a freefall. Both appear to be long-term impact players in Philly. 

This year, after landing the tenth overall pick in the Jordan Davis trade from the Saints during last year’s daft, the Eagles swapped picks with the Bears to select Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who was widely regarded as the best defender in the 2023 class who was arguably the best player on that 2021 title team. The plummet was likely due to Carter’s noted off-the-field issues that include a reckless driving incident that killed teammate Devin Willock and a Georgia football staffer as well as showing up to his pro day overweight and being unable to finish the planned drills. 

However, Carter was considered the best defender in this class for a reason. He’s an F-5 tornado on the interior who consistently tossed around Division I offensive lineman like they were middle schoolers. I don’t think you needed an analytics cylinder to figure out that Carter has the talent to become a wrecking ball at the next level.

Not only that, the Eagles got another gift as the night wound down, as UGA edge rusher Nolan Smith fell into Philly’s lap with the 30th overall pick, a player who many thought Philly could take with the tenth overall pick. Once again, we’ve exited night one wondering how the Eagles were able to walk away with the haul they received. Perhaps picking the best players from a historically awesome unit might be the way to go in the future. 

Winner: Lamar Jackson 

As mentioned previously, the 2018 NFL Draft was not the jolliest experience for Lamar Jackson. Five years later, draft night became yet another night to remember…this time, it was for good reason. 

After what felt like 12 years of turbulent contract negotiations between Jackson and the Ravens, the two sides came to an agreement that was reported a few hours before the draft on a five year, $260 million dollar mega-deal with $185 million guaranteed. Despite not having an agent and tensions between the two sides never seeming to subside, Jackson and the Ravens were able to work out a sensible long-term deal that keeps their superstar in Baltimore for the foreseeable future. The news was teased by Jackson on Twitter with numerous Spongebob GIFs, a medium of news-breaking that I think needs to be explored more.

As we’ve experienced this new wave of super-duper star quarterbacks in recent years, we’ve seen teams at least try their hardest to build around them, especially through the draft. The Chargers spent first-round picks on offensive lineman in 2021 and 2022, then took TCU star wideout Quentin Johnston on Thursday night. The Bengals spent a top-five pick on Ja’Marr Chase and a second-round pick on Tee Higgins. The Jaguars spent a first-round pick on Travis Etienne and another on tackle Anton Harrison this year. 

Although it may not feel like it, the Ravens have actually invested quite a bit into building a formidable supporting cast around Jackson through the draft. Out of the 20 top-three round picks Baltimore has made since 2018 (not including Jackson), 11 of them have been used on skill position players or offensive lineman. The only issue was that a chunk of those picks never ended up working out. Three of those 11 players (Hayden Hurst, Orlando Brown Jr, Marquise Brown) are no longer on the team. 

A pick that I do think will end up working out is the one the Ravens made on Thursday night, selecting Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers with the 22nd overall pick. Although small in stature, Flowers consistently embarrassed ACC cornerbacks en route to a legendary career in Chestnut Hill. With Flowers, Andrews, Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr, this might be Jackson’s best collection of wideouts he’s ever had to work with. Although the AFC is going to remain a gauntlet with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers all playing in the conference for the foreseeable future, the Ravens are clearly trying their hardest to put up their best fight. 

Loser: The participants in the last game of the 2022 regular season

The Lions and the Packers ended the 2022 regular season on vastly different trajectories. Despite being eliminated from playoff contention earlier in the day by the Seahawks, Detroit marched into Green Bay on a frigid Sunday night and defeated the Packers in prime time. The loss eliminated the Packers from the playoffs, and the defeat ended up being Aaron Rodgers’ final game in Green Bay, as he’d be traded to the Jets that following offseason.

Heading into the 2023 offseason, Detroit’s future appeared brighter than the sun. They became the darlings of the NFL media, as one of the most outwardly positive cultures had executed almost a perfect rebuild en route to having the sixth and 18th overall picks in the 2023 draft. The Packers, meanwhile, were looking downward with the departure of Rodgers.

Despite that, both teams had relatively baffling nights, starting with the Lions. Detroit traded back with the Cardinals to the 12th overall pick, receiving Arizona’s 2023 second-rounder in return. On the board were several players that could’ve immediately filled holes and improved the Lions right away as they looked to continue a phenomenal rebuild. Instead, they took the aforementioned Gibbs, as he was apparently being clamored for by many teams between 13 and Detroit’s next pick at 18 according to GM Brad Holmes.

The desire to get your guy is understandable. It’s why the Giants took Daniel Jones sixth in  but here’s the thing: if you’re going to take a running back in the top 12, they should probably be able to play all three downs at a high level. While the Falcons taking Bijan Robinson is risky, he can at least be a bellcow that Atlanta rushing guru Arthur Smith can build Atlanta’s ground game around. Gibbs only received 20 carries in a game three times in his three college seasons, and I don’t expect him to suddenly receive a heavy workload in the pros, in part because (inhale) THE LIONS ALREADY HAVE D’ANDRE SWIFT AND DAVID MONTGOMERY, THE LATTER OF WHICH THEY’RE GUARANTEEING $11 MILLION TO OVER THE NEXT THREE SEASONS. Also, the Lions could’ve just taken Robinson at six! Gah!

Not only that, they used the 18th pick on Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell who a) plays a position (off-ball linebacker) that doesn’t possess anywhere near the value of several other positions, and b) wasn’t widely considered a first-round pick. Still at their disposal was every wide receiver and tight end as well as Nolan Smith, Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy and several other prospects who, on paper, would’ve improved the Lions more than Campbell. 

What made the picks even more frustrating is that there’s no guarantee they’ll be picking in the top ten again; in fact, they’ll likely be too good to pick that high over the next couple of seasons, seasons that see the most open window for success the Lions have seen in awhile. Detroit had a platinum opportunity to transcend themselves further into NFC contention, and they may have squandered it.

Then, there were the Packers. The consensus was that, as a going away present to Aaron Rodgers, they’d draft a pass-catcher in the first round after several years of not doing so. Instead, they opted for another Iowa defender, edge rusher Lukas Van Ness. The selection extended the streak of Green Bay using a first-round pick on not a pass-catcher to 21 years, with nine of their last ten first round selections dating back to 2012 having been used on defenders. 

I’d say that Van Ness is an upgrade for the Packers defense, but Jordan Love needs some help! As of now, Samori Toure and Josiah Deguara are going to see the field quite a bit. Someone needs to tell Brian Gutekunst that it’s legal to draft skill position players in the first round. 

Winner: Maryland

As a Marylandian, it brought me great joy to see the seventh state represented so well during the NFL Draft, both with the NFL teams from the state as well as prospects who hail from MD. 

The Ravens made a stellar selection at 22 with the aforementioned Flowers, and so did the Commanders six picks prior with Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes. While being under 170 pounds is less than ideal as a cornerback, Forbes possesses lethal anticipation, as he returned an NCAA record six interceptions for touchdowns in his three years in Starkville. Washington needed a playmaker in their secondary, and they certainly got one. 

While Maryland is more of a basketball state than a football state, it’s been represented well in recent drafts. Darnell Savage, DJ Moore, Yannick Ngakoue, Stefon Diggs and Vernon Davis make up arguably the five best players to ever come out of the University of Maryland, and hoping to add his name to the list is UMD cornerback Deonte Banks, who was taken by the Giants with the 24th overall pick. 

Not only did Banks play his college ball at Maryland, he grew up in Edgewood, MD, a 40-minute drive from Baltimore. The wildly athletic DB fills a pressing need for the G-Men and made DC Wink Martindale happier than I’ve ever seen him.

Speaking of Maryland natives, Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee was taken just five picks after Banks. Hailing from Rockville, Bresee makes it three consecutive years with a Montgomery County native being selected in the draft Jake Funk (Damascus) in 2021, Arnold Ebikete (Albert Einstein) in 2022. 

Seeing Bresee selected was heartwarming, as he’s  dealt with a lot during his time at Clemson. He missed most of the 2021 season with a shoulder injury and an ACL tear. This past season, he had a kidney infection, and his younger sister Ella lost a battle with brain cancer in September. Although he put up similar numbers to his promising freshman season in 2020, he looked understandably diminished in 2022. But the full version of Bresee has the potential to be a star; I’m just glad a team appears to have a similar vision. Fly those yellow and red flags high!